Stefanie Hom, Metropolitan Transportation Commission | AMPO | October 24, 2014 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Adaptation Options for Transportation Assets in the Bay Area

Background Climate change is projected to cause the San Francisco Bay to rise as much as 24-inches by mid-century and 66-inches by end of century Current project will identify multimodal adaptation options for vulnerable transportation assets and an implementation strategy in three focus areas Current project leverages other work: – Adapting to Rising Tides (ART): Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project – BART Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot – Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) project (larger scope) – Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (ACFCWCD) Sea Level Rise Studies 2

Project Area 3 Oakland Coliseum Oakland Bay Bridge Touchdown Hayward Hwy 92 Corridor San Francisco Bay Area: Alameda County sub-region

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Project Objectives A refined understanding of vulnerability and risk for the core transportation assets A refined understanding of SLR and storm event exposure High-level multi-modal climate adaptation options that each agency can pursue Five refined adaptation options Establish evaluation process that could be replicated elsewhere 5

Adaptation Methodology 6 Define and Scope Project Area and Assets Refine Sea Level Rise Mapping Assess Vulnerabilities Define Adaptation Strategies Evaluate Effects of Adaptation Options

Bay Bridge Focus Area: 36” SLR 7 MHHW 36” SLR (permanent inundation) OR 24” SLR + 1-yr tide 18” SLR + 2-yr tide 12” SLR + 5-yr tide 6” SLR + 10-yr tide 0” SLR + 50-yr tide (flooding, temporary inundation) Assets: I th Street/Bay Street – Transbay Tube Eastshore State Park/Emeryville Crescent EBMUD Facilities Electrical Substation Port Operations

Hayward Focus Area: 48” SLR 8 MHHW 48” SLR (permanent inundation) OR 36” SLR + 1-yr tide 30” SLR + 2-yr tide 24” SLR + 5-yr tide 18” SLR + 10-yr tide 12” SLR + 50-yr tide 6” SLR yr tide Assets: SR 92 Bay Trail Hayward Shoreline Interpretive Center Oliver Salt Ponds Eden Landing Ecological Reserve Industrial Land Uses

Coliseum Focus Area: 48” SLR 9 MHHW 48” SLR (permanent inundation) OR 36” SLR + 1-yr tide 30” SLR + 2-yr tide 24” SLR + 5-yr tide 18” SLR + 10-yr tide 12” SLR + 50-yr tide 6” SLR yr tide Assets I-880 Oakland Coliseum Amtrak Station Oakland Coliseum BART Station BART Oakland Airport Connector MLK Regional Shoreline San Leandro Channel Commercial/Industrial San Leandro Street Coliseum Arena Complex

Vulnerability Metrics 10 Metrics describe the asset and highlight any current conditions or stressors that could affect its vulnerability Existing Conditions Determine if data is lacking, incomplete, poorly coordinated, or hard to access Information Identify challenges with management, authority, regulation, or funding Governance Consider the function of assets and their relationships with other assets Functional Identify conditions or design aspects that make an asset particular vulnerable Physical Help understand the potential consequences of a climate change impact for society, the economy, and the environment Consequences

Example Adaptation Strategies 11 Core Transportation Assets Drainage System Modifications Update Emergency Management Plans Relocation/Replacement/Enhancement ITS Solutions Focus Area (transportation and adjacent assets) Levees Shoreline Protection (berms) Natural and Engineered Solutions Agency Specific (primarily Caltrans and BART) Information Databases Coordination Strategies that can be integrated into normal maintenance

Strategy Selection Process Adaptation Strategies 17 Adaptation Strategies 6 Adaptation Strategies 5 Final Adaptation Strategies Screening of strategies Identified by CT Refined by TT Identified by CT Refined by TT Identified by CT Refined by TT Identified by CT Refined by TT PMT decision Qualitative Assessment PMT – Project Management Team TT – Technical Team CT – Consultant Team

Qualitative Assessment of Strategies 13

Final Five Adaptation Strategies 14 Breakwater offshore of Radio Beach (Bay Bridge) Artificial Dune / Living Levee north of Bay Bridge Touchdown (Bay Bridge) Damon Slough Living Levee (Coliseum) San Mateo-Hayward Bridge Drainage Study (Hayward) Mainstreaming Climate Change into Transportation Agencies

Evaluate Final Five Adaptation Strategies Develop conceptual design sketches Determine costs and benefits of each adaptation strategy Weigh each option against a no-action scenario Identify administrative and regulatory issues Understand trade-offs 15 Social EquityEnvironment EconomyGovernance Adaptation Strategy

Next Steps Adapting to Rising Tides 16 Additional Analyses Long Range Planning Existing Processes Focus Groups Funding Opportunities Strategy Refinement

17 Stefanie Hom Metropolitan Transportation Commission