ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD LAGUNA-LBNO General Meeting Hanasaari (Helsinki) August 2014 Liquid Scintillator Experiment 1.Project Risk 2.Construction Programme 3.Construction Costs Jim Lumbard

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Time/Programme CostQuality Scope Triangle 1. Project Risk Hypothetical Model 3 principal variables – TIME – QUALITY - COST A level is set for all 3 when planning a project Acceptable balance of all 3 required Favour one (or 2 of the variables) and the other/s change in a negative direction Continuous monitoring required to keep ‘dot’ in a ‘known’ position

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Early Stage of Project Risk and Uncertainty = High Cost of Change = Low Late Stage of Project Risk and Uncertainty = Low Cost of Change = High The importance of Risk Management

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Project Risk Register Identification of Project Risk is critical to the success of any project. In many cases, risks are identified and analysed in a random, brainstorming process and consequently unexpected risks arise later which have to be dealt with on an emergency basis. To categorise risk events is a way to systematically identify individual risks and provide a foundation for awareness. The Laguna LBNO Consortium adopted a simplistic approach to the compilation of the project risk registers by starting off with dividing risks into 2 categories. Thereafter sub-categories were created with further sub-categories that eventually resulted in numerous final risk events. Such a system identifies common influences, factors, causes, potential impacts and potential preventative or corrective actions that can be discussed and agreed upon.

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Most Significant Risk Throughout the design realisation of the Liquid Scintillator Experiment, The LAGUNA-LBNO collaboration has evaluated risk events that could either affect Costs, Programme, Quality or a combination of all 3. From a risk perspective, the four most critical categories that have been identified are: 1) The underground infrastructure 2) Liquid Scintillator availability and Purity 3) Tank Construction and Integrity and 4) Instrumentation components (PMT’s) Just under 300 risks have been identified as part of risk assessment and design works to date. These risks have been analysed and mitigated wherever possible, then recorded in the Project Risk Register. The resultant Design solutions are fully based on risk prevention (QA driven) and no show-stoppers have been identified to date. The excavation, civil works, construction, detector / instrumentation, liquid handling and their realisation are therefore considered technically feasible. The results of the Site Investigations and expertise in Finland in large underground constructions certainly support these conclusions for the Pyhäsalmi Site.

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Most Significant Risk Events (Identified to date) 1. Underground Infrastructure EventControlProbability (%) Residual Value (€m) Exceeding Rock Strength Location Shape Method of Excavation 10€2.5m Variable Rock Quality Model Excavation Strategy Staged Reinforcement Strategy 5€0.5m Limited Rock Mucking Commence work ahead of planned Mine closure 75€5.4m Risks associated with working underground Alternative means of Escape Looped Ventilation Strategy Permanent Smoke Doors Refuge Zones 5€1.0m

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD 2. Liquid Scintillator (LSc) EventControlProbability % Residual Value (€m) AvailabilityConfirm availability within Europe and outside2€0.02 PurityThorium free welding to tank 2.2m Veto between Fiducial Mass and Concrete On Site Purification 5€0.5m LeaksInspect and Test Welds Hydrotest Pipework Reduce pipe pressure by use of Gravity Fill. 2€0.02m Liquid Convection Prevention Cooling system within circulation system CFD Modelling 2€0.5m Underground Construction Limitations Alternative means of Escape Looped Ventilation Strategy Permanent Smoke Doors Refuge Zones 40€0.24m

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD 3. Tank Construction and Integrity EventControlProbability % Residual Value (€m) Tank IntegrityAdditional Reinforcement External Polyurea Coating Internal Secondary barrier Monitor 150mm Gap 1€2.0m Underground Construction Limitations Components sized for access limits Detailed crane study Use of Aux Caverns/Existing caverns for storage 2€5.0m Earthquake/Mine Vibration Design to accommodate micro seismic events 1€0.01m 100m Air LiftEarly Age consultation with Specialist contractor 5€0.02m Tank FloatsAnchor tank to bed rock Controlled sequence of fill Apply Safety factors 0.2€0.4m Tunnel Plug LeaksRobust Design Monitor levels 0.2€0.4m

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD 4. Instrumentation Components EventControlProbability % Residual Value Excessive PMT FailureTest PMT’s during installation Replace faulty PMT’s during installation 2€1.26 PMT ImplosionEncapsulate PMT’s Ensure PMT’s designed to withstand anticipated pressures 1€0.63m PMT AlignmentRigid support structure required Survey and calibrate during installation and after fill. 1€0.50m

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Project Risk Summary Risk and uncertainty exists in all projects and it is the responsibility of the project Management Team to identify risk events such that they can be managed. Recognition of the following will provide a sound basis to manage risk Identify risk events at the earliest stage. Group risk events to achieve a systematic approach to identification. Continuously review to identify new risk events. Make changes as early (in Project life) as possible as this will keep cost and time to a minimum Continuously monitor the development of the project from a known risk perspective Assign risk events to those who can best deal with them. The Laguna LBNO Consortium have compiled a comprehensive list of possible risk events that have been referenced to arrive at a reasonably accurate cost and duration to deliverb the LSc Experiment.

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD 2. Construction Programme. The Laguna LBNO Consortium have been tasked to produce a programme of works that demonstrates what can be built and in what timescale. This has been referenced as the Master programme of which individual ones exists for each of the 3 types of experiment. The project deliverables focus on High level programmes that are limited in detail but have been derived from many other more specific and more detailed programmes that demonstrate that the planned work is possible in the planned timescales. These programmes have been developed from many smaller, more detailed programmes derived for individual work activities. The programme for the Liquid Scintillator (LSc) Experiment assumes that the conceptual design is complete and therefore commences with detailed design for the underground excavation. The programme finishes at the commencement of the scientific experiment. This period is approximately 10 years and is based on current known technology. It is possible that certain technology could advance in the period between now and actually commencing this project, it is also possible that ‘others’ looking to actually deliver the project decide on alternative technology that in turn reduces the programme duration. Such issues are identified in the Risk Register where further allowances have been made..

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Construction Programme Con’t Why have a programme ?? Basic Functions Before work commences It demonstrates/proves how long a project will take to realise (Start date/Completion date) It demonstrates what work is required It demonstrates what sequence of work will be adopted It provides a basis to calculate project expenditure relative to time. During Project Delivery It provides a form of measuring actual progress against theoretical progress. It acts as a tool to coordinate different activities/contractors. It acts as a tool to re-sequence work

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Simplified Construction Programme. (Bar Chart)

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Programme in Microsoft Project Format

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Programme Summary A delivery programme is essential however the format it takes is not so important (certainly in the early stages of a project) There can only be one (Master) programme as this combines and coordinates all the minor programmes covering specific items of work. A programme must have a start and completion date, (hence we then have a duration period) A programme must have its activities linked such that the consequences of any change can be seen on other activities. A programme must be referenced to particular forms of construction such that if alternative solutions are later considered, accurate time differentials can be identified.

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD 2. Construction Costs The Liquid Scintillator Experiment was originally considered as being built in conjunction with the Liquid Argon experiment at Pyhäsalmi however for the purposes of building up a cost for this particular type of experiment, the LSc has been considered on a stand alone basis thus access tunnels and surface infrastructure costs have all been allocated an a stand alone basis to this Experiment. As there is no other similar structure (or experiment) on the same scale completed elsewhere in the world, it has not been possible to develop costs from known values. Alternatively costs have had to be broken down into constituent components then built up from first principals, starting from known values. For example, a m 2 of concrete costs €100 to buy direct from the plant but delivery, mechanical handling and manual finishing costs associated with placing the concrete exactly where it is required could double this cost (€200/m 2 ) Factoring methods are utilised to align a cost for one known application to an unknown application (eg – Ready mixed concrete on surface to own produced concrete below ground) Such a method is an acceptable process however it heavily relies on the accurate assumptions of suitably experienced professionals to apply their knowledge to a relatively unknown new concept.

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD ElementCost (€m)% of Total Cost Excavation51,100, Underground Infrastructure10,100, Tank and Deck55,900, Mine Operational Costs12,500, Detector Instrumentation113, Liquid Infrastructure145, Contingency/Risk20, TOTAL

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD

ALAN AULD ENGINEERING 1 South Parade, Doncaster, South Yorkshire, DN1 2DY, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) ALAN AULD GROUP LTD Thank You