Soc 428: Contemporary China Week 11: Population Yu Xie The University of Michigan

Political Dissidents  There are many groups of political dissidents.  For different reasons: Religious reasons. For example, Falun Gong. Pro-democracy. Elitist. Highly educated. Many became political dissidents for economic reasons: such as loss of job, loss of land, and loss of apartment.

Recourse of Ordinary Citizens  Formal/legal means. Not effective, because legal system is within the control of the government/party.  Informal/Confucian means. More effective. Complaints about local officials to higher levels of administrators. Calling for justice. Influencing public opinion. Asking for sympathy among ordinary people, through internet, flyers, posters, and public display of outrage.

Corruption  Rampant in China, despite severe punishments.  Almost all officials are guilty of some illegal or inappropriate activities.  Punishments are seen as selective, resulting from political struggles within the system.

Former Chongqing police chief Wen Qiang executed. 13:51, July 07, 2010 Wen Qiang was sentenced to death by a lower court April 14 for accepting bribes, shielding criminal gangs, rape and failing to account for his cash and assets. Wen, 55, served as vice director of the Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau from 1992 to 2008, and later as director of the Chongqing Municipal Judicial Bureau until he was arrested in September (Xinhua File photo)

What Happened to Those Officials Who Executed Wen Qiang?  The police chief and Vice Mayor of Chongqing sought protection in the U.S. Embassy in Chengdu. He was sentenced in prison for 15-years.

What Happened to Those Officials Who Executed Wen Qiang?  Party secretary of Chongqing and member of Politburo, Bo Xilai, was sentenced to prison for life.

How Large is China’ Population Today?  Actually, we don’t know.  Official estimate is 1.35 billion, more than four times the size of the U.S. population.  This is the main reason why China is poised to overtake the US in total GDP in the not-too-distant future.

Topics to Cover under “Population”  (1) Demographic Transition  (2) Demographic Trends in China  (3) Demographic Bonus  (4) Demographic Problems

Demographic Transition  A result of economic development, assumed to be universal to all countries.  Pace of this transition may differ.

Key Assumptions  Pre-industrialized regime: high fertility and high mortality.  Post-industrialized regime: low fertility and ;pw mortality.

Demographic Changes  Social change as a result of industrialization.  First, a decline of mortality  Then, a decline of fertility  The time gap between the two declines creates a large growth in population

Graphic Illustration

(2) Fertility and Mortality Trends in China

Trends in Fertility and Life Expectancy

One-Child Policy  When was the one-child policy first introduced?  Officially, in  Family planning program was already in place.  Not strictly applied. There are exceptions (Provinces level decisions):

Examples of Exceptions  (1) First girl in rural areas.  (2) Many minority populations in West.  (3) Couple of only-children.  (4) Other “practical difficulties”.  In reality, about children per woman.

(3) Demographic Bonus  As a result of demographic transition, there is a historical period in which dependency-ratio -- the number of young and old people to the number of working age people – is low.  This creates a demographic bonus.

Age Pyramid in 2000

Age Pyramid in 2010

Age Pyramid in 2050

Demographic Problems  Aging. (31% of the population in 2050 will be over age 60.)  Sex imbalance.  Family (divorce, intergenerational relations, etc.)  Migration.