GOALS FOR THIS MEETING Assess transition, report on working groups Specific, “nuts and bolts” definition of ongoing and future problems to be carried out. –Specific scientific/assessment problem. –Which simulation results and diagnostics are required: do we have them, can we get them. –What input do we need for a specific problem (for example, METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS, emission inventories...). –In case of a new module, what can of interface do we envision with GMI; what variables are needed from meteorological fields, others... –What is the expected time line, point person.

GOALS FOR THIS MEETING (II) Continue exploration of GMI’s future contributions, IN ADDITION TO ASSESSMENT. Research tool? User support?

UEET Conference on Aviation in the Atmosphere and Climate (AAC), Friedrichshafen, 7/03 –Extended abstract submitted on chemical perturbations –Peer-reviewed paper based on abstract? (Dec. 31) Report from TRADEOFF –Changes in radiative forcing from contrails, cirrus Assessments –Sulfate/soot perturbations from aircraft (2004) –“Final” assessment (mid-2006) Decide on “best” set of meteorological fields, other? Use GMI for exploring flight parameters – flight altitude, routing, emission indices… UEET Forum 10/30/03

Mannstein, AAC Conference, 2003

What will GMI do for UEET Final Assessment? Use coupled trop/strat model Chemical Perturbations Aerosol Direct Effect –Sulfate –Soot First indirect effect? –Aerosol-cloud interaction? (Nenes) –Cirrus? (Not funded…) Contrails?

IPCC TIMELINE WGI panelJan 2007 Lead Author meeting 4 (TBD)Jun 2006 Second draft completeFeb 2006 Lead Author meeting 3 (Christchurch)Dec 2005 First draft completeAug 2005 Lead Author meeting 2 (Beijing)May 2005 Second scoping meetingSep 2003 Zero order draft completeFeb 2005 Lead Author meeting 1 (Trieste)Sep 2004 Lead author teams selected by WGI BureauApr 2004 Panel approval of outlines for reportsNov 2003 First scoping meetingApr 2003

QUADRENNIAL OZONE SYMPOSIUM

FOR ALL WORKING GROUPS Specific tasks/point persons Timelines – 18 mos. Met. Fields Model Resolution Specific needs (for NRA, website) Define “routine” diagnostics User support – Needs from “core” group. “Proposal?”

WORKING GROUPS I GSFC with Dan to sort out existing I/O issues – –Synthetic runs (Prather) Stratospheric group –Status of current manuscripts –Do timelines make sense? –Analyses needs we do not have –Model resolution –WHAT DO WE DO NEXT IN STRATOSPHERE Aerosols –Refine paper suggestions - IPCC –Look very carefully at timelines AND priorities –Aircraft-related issues: contrails, cirrus, what is possible? –Diagnostics; analyses needs –Wet scavenging schemes –Putting in microphysical package: issues –Photolysis? –Radiative forcing

WORKING GROUPS (II) Strat-trop –Mechanism Testing strategy (tracers, full chemistry) Unify treatment of photolysis, hydrological cycle Scavenge additional species –Short-lived compounds (A “quick” application?) Troposphere –DEFINE FIRST GENERATION OF MANUSCRIPTS Additional diagnostics What do we do with boundary layer Outline manuscript (When?) –DEFINE SECOND GENERATION OF PROBLEMS – IPCC!? Hindcast Lightning HNO3/NOy, PAN/NOy HC ratios

WORKING GROUPS (III) Aircraft –Specific proposal for GMI work for final assessment Numerical issues –Multiprocessors –TPCORE, resolution, etc.

TROPOSPHERIC WORKING GROUP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING Look at profiles - Harvard (GISS CO, where disagreement is worst) Dan will get monthly average maximum BL height from GISS ? met. Fields Conference call with interested parties- Decide on strategy, implement, rerun full chemistry runs Need to look at simple tracer runs to make sure things are ok. –Start runs by ????? Put bulk of comparisons on web site

DIAGNOSTICS Monthly averaged rates for all thermal and photolytic processes in model – Need post-process Ox (to be defined by Harvard), HOx, P and L of CO, Harvard – Code? 3-D vertical advective fluxes (monthly average) 2-D tendencies for each operator (latitude and “height”} Deposition fluxes Emissions WANT: Global budgets of ozone, CO, methane, HOx…. Diagnosing met. Fields: water vapor, clouds, cloud cover (see papers WE HAVE SUFFICIENT DIAGNOSTICS FOR FIRST GENERATION OF MANUSCRIPTS

PAPERS “FIRST GENERATION” – NO NEW MET FIELDS DRAFTS BY MARCH 31 I. DESCRIPTION OF PHYSICAL COMPONENTS OF MODEL, DIFFERENCES AMONG MET. FIELDS (Considine) –Model Description (Rodriguez) –Met. Field comparison/validation for chemistry (H 2 O, convective mass fluxes, clouds, boundary layer) (Prather, Rodriguez, Bergmann,Penner) –Rn, Pb 7 Be III. DESCRIPTION OF CHEMICAL COMPONENTS OF MODEL/MET. FIELD DIFFERENCES (Rodriguez; Jacob) –OH, CH 3 CCl 3 lifetimes –Global budgets of O 3, CO, CH 4 … –2-D tendencies II. Comparison to data (Logan) (Put bulk of comparisons in web site) –MOZAIC (Prather, Harvard) –Use simple tracers for examples –Chatfield, Wang, etc IV. Numerical paper using simple tracers (Prather) Does it improve comparison to observations?

Second Generation Papers SECOND GENERATION V. Compare two chemical mechanisms (Considine) Second generation –NO NEW MET. FIELDS VI. Lightning (Pickering; Chatfield) Sensitivities GEOS-TRMM ; others;? VII. Sensitivity to wet scavenging (in conjunction with aerosols?) VII. Hydrocarbon ratios (Wang) (Need HCs at each time step; Fields? C2Cl4, CO, Jacob) VIII. IPCC Impact – Prather, Jacob, Stratospheric people?, Rodriguez –Methane feedback lifetime –Future changes in ozone, CO, –Future OH – Lifetimes –Air quality; intercontinental transport? –Update GCM fields in view of future climate forecasts Which ones? Find out: Daniel: GISS; Prather: UKMet; NCAR: Logan; fvGCM: Rodriguez

More generations? Hindcast years? NCEP – MATCH (Logan) Specific campaign/satellite data – (EC-Oslo; NCEP; fvDAS) Compare all three for campaigns during this period –OSSEs GMAO

NEXT MEETING May East Coast. Daniel for meeting committee Different format – one day of working groups, one day of presentations (more scientific) – Invite larger scientific community. Steering Committee: March m Telecon