Risks to Global Outlook Inter American Development Bank Meeting October 19, 2006 Desmond Lachman American Enterprise Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Risks to Global Outlook Inter American Development Bank Meeting October 19, 2006 Desmond Lachman American Enterprise Institute

U.S. Household Savings and Debt Service Payments % of disposable personal income

US Current Account Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates.

Financing of US Current Account Deficit Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates.

China Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP, F

Relative Unit Labor Costs in Europe Italy, France and Germany Unit Labor Cost trends Source: OECD, last observation Q Italy +22% since 2000 Germany -5% since 2000 France +11% since 2000

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