Brooke Smith-Windsor, Ph.D. ACA 13 May 2016 Brooke Smith-Windsor, Ph.D. ACA 13 May 2016 NATO, Interconnected Security Threats and the Politics of Perception NATO, Interconnected Security Threats and the Politics of Perception

POLITICS OF PERCEPTION

Politics of Perception Economics Geography Technology History

HISTORY (1) The USSR fell apart. Things developed so swiftly that few people realised how truly dramatic those events and their consequences would be. … It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realised that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered. Vladimir Putin, 18 March 2014

HISTORY (2)

HISTORY (3)

GEOGRPAHY (1) Northern Sea Route

GEOGRPAHY (2)

GEOGRPAHY (3)

ECONOMICS (1)

ECONOMICS (2)

ECONOMICS (3)

TECHNOLOGY (1)

TECHNOLOGY (2) The ‘Third Offset’ The critical innovation … to apply and combine these new systems and technologies with new strategic operational concepts, in ways that enable the American military to avoid matching an adversary ‘tank-for-tank or soldier-for- soldier.’ -- US Secretary Defense Hagle November 2014 November 2014

TECHNOLOGY (3)

NATO: HISTORY The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments. They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area. They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security. -- Washington Treaty 1949

NATO: GEOGRAPHY For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, … on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer. -- Washington Treaty Article 6 The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. -- Washington Treaty Article 10 The Alliance is affected by, and can affect, political and security developments beyond its borders. The Alliance will engage actively to enhance international security, through partnership with relevant countries and other international organizations … Strategic Concept

NATO: ECONOMICS Allies currently meeting the NATO guideline to spend a minimum of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence will aim to continue to do so. Likewise, Allies spending more than 20% of their defence budgets on major equipment, including related Research & Development, will continue to do so. Allies whose current proportion of GDP spent on defence is below this level will: halt any decline in defence expenditure; aim to increase defence expenditure in real terms as GDP grows; aim to move towards the 2% guideline within a decade with a view to meeting their NATO Capability Targets and filling NATO's capability shortfalls Wales Summit Declaration

NATO: TECHNOLOGY Cyber attacks can reach a threshold that threatens national and Euro-Atlantic prosperity, security, and stability. Their impact could be as harmful to modern societies as a conventional attack. We affirm therefore that cyber defence is part of NATO's core task of collective defence. A decision as to when a cyber attack would lead to the invocation of Article 5 would be taken by the North Atlantic Council on a case-by-case basis Wales Summit Declaration

DISCUSSION Perception