THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY OF THE NEVADA ELECTORATE DAVID F. DAMORE ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNLV SENIOR NONRESIDENT FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION.

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Presentation transcript:

THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY OF THE NEVADA ELECTORATE DAVID F. DAMORE ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNLV SENIOR NONRESIDENT FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION SENIOR ANALYST, LATINO DECISIONS

THE ORIGINAL SWING STATE Nevada has always been a swing state The winning presidential candidate has carried Nevada in 31 of 38 elections Over time the presidential margin of victory has decreased, while split ballot outcomes have increased Causes Weak political parties and strong personal political organizations A transient population (smallest share of native born in the US) 1 Inspire Nevada, January 30, 2016

Explosive growth since 1990 has created a highly urbanized and diverse state. 2 WHAT HAS CHANGED? NevadaClark (73%)Washoe (15%)Rurals (12%) Asian8.1%9.6%5.7%1.9% Black9.0%11.5%2.6%1.8% Latino27.5%30.0%23.3%17.4% White52.2%46.1%64.7%73.8% Source: U.S. Census Inspire Nevada, January 30, 2016

WHAT HAS CHANGED? Who participates in politics Where political competition occurs What issues matter 3 Inspire Nevada, January 30, 2016

THE DIVERSIFICATION OF THE NEVADA ELECTORATE Inspire Nevada, January 30, Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)

UNDER AND OVER VOTING BY RACE AND ETHNICITY Inspire Nevada, January 30, Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)

UNDER AND OVER VOTING BY AGE Inspire Nevada, January 30, Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)

DISCUSSION Why is this occurring? The costs and benefits of political participation Nevada specific factors How does this affect election outcomes? Partisan and symbolic representation at the federal, state, and local levels Is policy and governance responding to the state's changing population? Yes and no Inspire Nevada, January 30,