Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Outlook 2013 National Agricultural Credit Conference San Diego, California Apr. 17, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78014,642 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51611,89415,424 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5454,4005,400 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0114,5504,675 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3871,435 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341, ,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52711,13713,010 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081, ,414 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB, for

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0153,387 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2043,527 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6351,660 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3621,3501,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0803,295 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB, for

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,2182,2071,9992,2692,116 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)2,9933,2792,9743,1422,977 Food(mil. bu.) Seed(mil. bu.) Feed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)8791,2891,0501, Total Use(mil. bu.)2,0182,4172,2312,4112,282 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB, for

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Cotton Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(lb./acre) Production(mil. bales) Beg. Stocks(mil. bales) Imports(mil. bales) Total Supply(mil. bales) Domestic Use(mil. bales) Exports(mil. bales) Total Use(mil. bales) Ending Stocks(mil. bales) Average Farm Price($/lb.) Source: USDA-WAOB, for

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Price Ratios Since June 1

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cotton Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Pounds/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Planted Acreage Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Snow Cover Source: USDA-WAOB and NOAA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 4/12/2013

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 4/12/2013

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: KCBOT, 4/12/2013

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 4/12/2013

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by Crop Source: USDA-NASS Acreage change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by State Source: USDA-NASS Top: Intended planting in 2013 Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Precip

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 3 Month Outlook - Temps

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Soil moisture issues  Biofuel and export strength  Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (4/12/13) Corn$6.90$5.18 Soybeans$14.30$11.72 Wheat$7.80$7.08 Cotton$0.72~$0.82

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: