California Energy Commission Cost of Generation Model: Cost Competition and Technology Trends Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative 2.0 Plenary Group.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission Cost of Generation Model: Cost Competition and Technology Trends Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative 2.0 Plenary Group Meeting Energy Commission: Hearing Room A March 16, 2016 Bryan Neff Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division

California Energy Commission The What and Why What: Analyzes cost trends in utility-scale generation that may be built in California over the next decade. Financial assumptions for three ownership types: IOU, POU, and merchant. Presents instant, installed, and levelized costs. Levelized costs presented in both deterministic and probabilistic cost ranges. Why Relies on and provides a common set of assumptions. Estimates costs to developer rather than utility, ratepayer or grid operator. Transparent and publicly available.

California Energy Commission Levelized Cost of Energy for Selected Technologies (Real $)

California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Solar PV (Thin-Film, 100 MW)

California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Wind (Class 3, 100 MW)

California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Geothermal (Flash, 30 MW)

California Energy Commission Levelized Cost Range Using Probabilistic Method (Start Year = 2013)

California Energy Commission Questions and Comments (916) COG Report and Model: CEC /index.html Historic Versions: cost_of_generation_report.html