Affordability Later in Life. Future markets for older people’s housing June 2011

Key questions  How might demand for accommodation amongst the older people’s population change over time?  What impact will the changing nature of wealth and tenure have on future populations of older people?  Is there a distinction between the accommodation older people might want and what they might need?  Will past flight from urban centres continue into the future? 2

National Data  Owner occupation: 76.1% of people aged are living in owned property, 67.8% of people aged and 61.4% of people aged 85 plus.  Numbers of people aged 80 and over will increase from 2.3 million to 4.4 million by twenty years time  Already 60% of all hospital beds are occupied by people aged 65 and over, 40% of whom have a dementia. 3

National Data  Older people own up to £3 trillion worth of property assets  The value of the sheltered housing estate with LA’s and RSL’s is probably £40 billion plus. 4

Influences on demand for housing and older age services Predicting the future is not an exact science, of which the following may just be some of the significant variables:  Estimates of longevity.  Drugs and treatment.  Access to services.  Perceptions of provision.  Wealth and property values.  Attitudes to risk.  Information. 5

What do older people say they want  Low maintenance property.  Security.  Good access to facilities and transport.  Good neighbourhood.  Attractive accommodation that's fit for purpose.  Not to go into residential care. 6

Estimating demand In thinking about the future:  What proportion of the older people’s population may wish to move if market choice is extended?  What type of accommodation appeals to different groups?  What level of investment in their housing care and support might people be prepared to pay?  How might we better use the sheltered housing state? 7

Newham – a case study  Older people’s population will probably grow by around 20% -30% over the next twenty years but the borough has one of the lowest populations of older people in London.  Even though the borough has considerable poverty around 50% of OP are home owners.  Older peoples populations are not distributed equally across wards.  Danger of a small, poor dependent older peoples population. 8

Newham – a case study  Increasing level of voids in sheltered housing.  The level of admissions to residential care amongst older people is low, but the proportion of residents per 100K is high. Older people stay in care for a long time.  Need to review the sheltered housing stock and decide what should be retained (although may require, modification and improvement), which sites are good but the accommodation is not and which properties are not fit for purpose. 9

Newham Housing Strategy  Makes little mention of older people. But does suggest the borough needs:  Mixed tenure / mixed neighbourhoods.  Using different financial approaches to investment. Keen to use shared equity.  Need to utilise the development potential of ‘the arc of opportunity’  New housing should be high quality with good design. 10

11

12 £320K £242K £369K £342K £214K £264K Property values

The older peoples opportunity  Land availability.  Good transport connections, particularly for older people.  Potential for exciting developments that are affordable.  Creating a population that will stay put and can provide valuable community leadership.  Newham and two neighbouring boroughs have no retirement housing for sale.  Frees up family housing. 13

A daft idea...?  Dartington Trust retirement village- a flagship retirement community, where creativity and personal development will run alongside support for life –150 apartments.  The Springhill Co-Housing Community in Stroud.  The Tower Block in Groningen, badged as housing for “the retirement of the hippy generation”.  The Woonzorgonzones in the Netherlands. 14

Future thinking Overall, the development of high quality specialist housing suitable for older people could attract into the borough;  A more affluent older peoples population that can increase wealth,  That is unlikely to be dependent on council resources  That can add valuable diversity and strengthen community leadership. 15