Objective  Focus has been on 2008 base year inventory  While Fairbanks grows slowly, useful to review growth and control surrogates available to project 2014 emissions.  Key issues include:  Demographics  Fuel price forecasts  Space heating assumptions/trends  Point source operations vs. limits

Population/Household Forecast for Available from FMATS  Available at census tract and zip code levels  No forecast of square feet available, need to assume historic levels  No forecast of vacancy rate available, need to assume historical household ratio observed in 2010  Either project 2000 to 2010 trends to 2014 or interpolate between 2010 and 2035

Population/Household Forecast for Available from FMATS (cont.)  Use population/household forecast to estimate  Space heating growth (# of homes, commercial structures)  Point source growth  Rail growth (or contact ARR)  Aircraft growth (or contact individual airports)  Non-road growth  Use base year EFs except where models (e.g., NONROAD) are available to account for fleet turnover and control commitments

Travel Forecast for 2010 and 2035 Available from FMATS  Either project 2008 to 2010 trends to 2014 or interpolate between 2010 and 2035  Use projected travel to quantify vehicle activity  Use externally adjusted MOVES to quantify EFs in 2014

Space Heating Issues  How many wood stove change outs should be assumed?  How should they be distributed geographically?  Should 2011 survey results on fuel split and use as function of temperature be held constant, if not how should they be changed (e.g., is there a fuel price forecast)?  Should any change in behavior be assumed for response to public education programs (e.g., moisture content, etc.)?  What assumptions should be made with regard to Clear Stack retrofits for OWHHs, how should they be distributed geographically?

Point Source Issues  Need to create inventory reflecting PTE restrictions  Need to create alternate inventory to reflect realistic expectation of activity  2008 base year modified to reflect population/household growth  2008 base year unmodified if determined to be with uncertainty of activity estimates  Episode values modified to reflect 2008 source activity with operation restrictions based on source specific documentation  EF changes should also reflect any control changes planned between now and 2014

Military Issues  Mission assignments subject to change  2008 activity levels based on data supplied by bases  Forecast of 2014 unrelated to population/household forecast  Discussions with bases needed to assess potential for activity changes