The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information,

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information, visit:

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Climatology

Large long-term (90-day) rainfall deficits continue over central and southeastern Brazil. During the last 7 days (23-29 March 2015), below-average precipitation was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, southeastern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, extreme southern Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru. For 30 March-5 April 2015, below-average precipitation is indicated for most of the Amazon Basin, Northeast and southern Brazil, and eastern Argentina. Highlights

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, southeastern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, extreme southern Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru. TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of the eastern and southern Amazon Basin, Bolivia, Paraguay, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Above- average precipitation was observed over southern Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of the western Amazon Basin. TotalAnomaly

BP Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin (>300 mm) and the Brazilian Plateau ( mm). 90-day rainfall is below average (~50 mm) over southern Brazil.

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific and near average in the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.)

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days Upper panels: During the period of Mar. 2015, anomalous cyclonic flow (center indicated by red C) was located over the western Atlantic, with stronger-than-average westerlies extending from northern Chile eastward across northern Argentina and southern Brazil. Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion occurred over the central Andes Mts. and anomalous sinking motion occurred over portions of central and eastern Brazil. Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. C

925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 DaysRecent 7 Days Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. During the 7-day period Mar. 2015, above-average temperatures were observed over central and southern Chile, and below-average temperatures were observed over central and northern Argentina, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 30 March 2015 – Days 1-7 Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 30 March 2015 – Days 8-14 Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

For Days 1-7 (30 March-5 April 2015), below-average precipitation is indicated for most of the Amazon Basin, Northeast and southern Brazil, and eastern Argentina. For Days 8-14 (6-12 April 2015), below-average precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern Amazon Basin, Bolivia, southern Brazil, and portions of southeastern Brazil. Near-to or above-average precipitation is indicated for Northeast Brazil. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS

Forecast Verification Forecast from 16 March 2015 Valid for Mar 2015 Forecast from 23 March 2015 Valid for Mar Observed Mar. 2015

Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSETDEMISE

Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology Animation