Japan as a US Partner? Japan as a US Partner? S. Korea as a US Partner? S. Korea as a US Partner? N. Korea as a Problem? N. Korea as a Problem? Week 5 Regional Actors I: Japan and Two Koreas

Robert S. Ross, “ Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia, ” Security Studies, Vol. 15, No. 3 (July – September 2006), pp, Robert S. Ross, “ Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia, ” Security Studies, Vol. 15, No. 3 (July – September 2006), pp, Richard J. Samuel, “ New Fighting Power! Japan ’ s Growing Maritime Capabilities and East Asian Security, ” International Security, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Winter 2007/08), pp Richard J. Samuel, “ New Fighting Power! Japan ’ s Growing Maritime Capabilities and East Asian Security, ” International Security, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Winter 2007/08), pp Llewelyn Hughes, “ Why Japan will not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan, ” International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Spring 2007), pp Llewelyn Hughes, “ Why Japan will not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan, ” International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Spring 2007), pp Readings…

ARTICLE III ARTICLE III The Parties, individually and in cooperation with each other, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid will maintain and develop, subject to their constitutional provisions, their capacities to resist armed attack. The Parties, individually and in cooperation with each other, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid will maintain and develop, subject to their constitutional provisions, their capacities to resist armed attack. ARTICLE IV ARTICLE IV The Parties will consult together from time to time regarding the implementation of this Treaty, and, at the request of either Party, whenever the security of Japan or international peace and security in the Far East is threatened. The Parties will consult together from time to time regarding the implementation of this Treaty, and, at the request of either Party, whenever the security of Japan or international peace and security in the Far East is threatened. ARTICLE V ARTICLE V Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and processes. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council of the United Nations in accordance with the provisions of Article 51 of the Charter. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security. Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and processes. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council of the United Nations in accordance with the provisions of Article 51 of the Charter. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security. Cornerstone: Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan 1960, 1, 19

ARTICLE VI ARTICLE VI For the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East, the United States of America is granted the use by its land, air and naval forces of facilities and areas in Japan. The use of these facilities and areas as well as the status of United States armed forces in Japan shall be governed by a separate agreement, replacing the Administrative Agreement under Article III of the Security Treaty between Japan and the United States of America, signed at Tokyo on February 28, 1952, as amended, and by such other arrangements as may be agreed upon. For the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East, the United States of America is granted the use by its land, air and naval forces of facilities and areas in Japan. The use of these facilities and areas as well as the status of United States armed forces in Japan shall be governed by a separate agreement, replacing the Administrative Agreement under Article III of the Security Treaty between Japan and the United States of America, signed at Tokyo on February 28, 1952, as amended, and by such other arrangements as may be agreed upon. How about Diaoyutai? How about Taiwan?

US Department of State, Daily Press Briefing Washington, DC, August 16, 2010 The Senkaku Islands are under the administrative control of the Government of Japan. Article 5 states that the treaty applies to the territories under the administration of Japan. So that if you ask today would the treaty apply to the Senkaku Islands, the answer is yes.

Why?? Strategic Value? Strategic Value? Economic Value? Economic Value? An island too small, Landmass near by

Area: 4.32 Sq KM

Article121 Regime of islands 1. An island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide. 2. Except as provided for in paragraph 3, the territorial sea, the contiguous zone, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf of an island are determined in accordance with the provisions of this Convention applicable to other land territory. 3. Rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Flight Information Region Air Defense Identification Zone Nothing to do with Territory Claim! Legal Status??

Fire Light

Ishihara Shintaro Senkaku? Who cares! I just want My Son, Ishihara Nobuteru, become the Chairman (perviously, secretary- general) of Liberal Democratic Party (and then, the Prime Minister of Japan)!!

Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. To accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized. Militarism Under the Peace Constitution, ARTICLE 9?? If this is popular……

“Normal State” Larger Military Role Modernizing Japanese Self Defense Force Legal Binding, Political Decisions Targeting PRC?

Gradually Toward Normal State… Larger Role for Japan, Robust Alliance…

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force DDH 181 DDG178 SS ~ DDH 183

Covered Arms Build-up? Covered Arms Build-up? Nontraditional but Traditional? Nontraditional but Traditional? Confidence Building or Breaking? Confidence Building or Breaking?

The Role of JSDF is still Defined by the U.S. and Has no Autonomy at all. Larger Role of JSDF is to Relief US Burden after the Cold War, but...

Right Wing: War were imposed upon Japan Right Wing: War were imposed upon Japan Middle: War is Wrong, but Japan is also a victim Middle: War is Wrong, but Japan is also a victim Left Wing: Both War and Japan are Wrong Left Wing: Both War and Japan are Wrong Majority No More Wars… Really Want to be a Normal State? Not Really……..

They don’t like China, but They don’t like U.S. EITHER…

Koizumi Junichiro Abe Shinzo Aso Taro Fukuda Yasuo

What I want is the Revival of Japanese Economy and thus stay in office LONGER!!! If that cannot be done, I have to divert the attention of my voters. Noda Yoshihiko In Office: 2011~2012 A Constructed Crisis

Abe Shinzo In Office: 2012~~? What I want is the Revival of Japanese Economy and thus stay in office LONGER!!! I am BACK!! Patriotism is not equal to Militarism …

Rising Small Power? Rising Small Power? Beyond Peninsular? Beyond Peninsular? Powerful Allie? Powerful Allie? S. Korea

Military Modernization of South Korea… Great Power Identity?

950, ,000 4,000+ 2,750 2,500+ 2,820 17, ,744+ ? ?? ? V.S.

km

Taepodong-1Taepodong-2 North Korean Nuclear Missile Program Regional Key Issue… WHY go Nuclear??

Key to Survival or Bargaining Chip?

No One Really Wants Nukes Including NK Common Security Cooperative Security

What we want is just the survival of our nation and foreign aid to our economy. WHY no solution yet?? WHY not Accept this??

Evil Regime? Irrational Regime?

Technology Export Technology Export Nuclear Proliferation Nuclear Proliferation Military Balance …………….?? Why not Let the NK keep its Nuke?

North Korean Nuke Alter the Military Balance? Asia-Pacific Region Asia-Pacific Region North East Asia North East Asia Korean Peninsula Korean Peninsula

North Korean Missile Tests, 2009 North Korean Missile Tests, 2009 …

Also A Constructed Crisis

If I cannot win supports from my people, I have to divert their attentions.

An Enemy is NEEDED…