Jeff Byron Variable Stars South and Northern Sydney Astronomical Society.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Regression Analysis Module 3. Regression Regression is the attempt to explain the variation in a dependent variable using the variation in independent.
Advertisements

Physics 1.2.
Regression Regression: Mathematical method for determining the best equation that reproduces a data set Linear Regression: Regression method applied with.
Data Handling l Classification of Errors v Systematic v Random.
Results of Observations of 14 Mutual Events of Galilean Moons of Jupiter Arto Oksanen (Nyrölä observatory, Finland) Apostolos Christou (Armagh Observatory,
Assessment Statements  The Internal Assessment (IA) Rubric IS the assessment statement.
Diane Stockton Trend analysis. Introduction Why do we want to look at trends over time? –To see how things have changed What is the information used for?
1 Doing Statistics for Business Doing Statistics for Business Data, Inference, and Decision Making Marilyn K. Pelosi Theresa M. Sandifer Chapter 11 Regression.
Inference for regression - Simple linear regression
© 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Chapter 12 Describing Data.
Eclipsing Binaries Converting your observations into a light curve.
The Examination of Residuals. The residuals are defined as the n differences : where is an observation and is the corresponding fitted value obtained.
BPS - 3rd Ed. Chapter 211 Inference for Regression.
Copyright © 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. 1 Chapter 22 Regression Diagnostics.
The Examination of Residuals. Examination of Residuals The fitting of models to data is done using an iterative approach. The first step is to fit a simple.
Multiple Regression Petter Mostad Review: Simple linear regression We define a model where are independent (normally distributed) with equal.
The Guide to Great Graphs Ten things every graph needs! Or… Ten things we hate about graphs!
Worked Example Using R. > plot(y~x) >plot(epsilon1~x) This is a plot of residuals against the exploratory variable, x.
Revision: Pivot Table 1. Histogram 2. Trends 3. Linear 4. Exponential
1 Ka-fu Wong University of Hong Kong EViews Commands that are useful for Assignment #2.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Regression Diagnostics Chapter 22.
Physics 2.1 AS Credits Carry out a practical physics investigation that leads to a non- linear mathematical relationship.
STATISTICS 12.0 Correlation and Linear Regression “Correlation and Linear Regression -”Causal Forecasting Method.
V. Rouillard  Introduction to measurement and statistical analysis CURVE FITTING In graphical form, drawing a line (curve) of best fit through.
EXPLORE/OC: Photometry Results for the Open Cluster NGC 2660 K. von Braun (Carnegie/DTM), B. L. Lee (Toronto), S. Seager (Carnegie/DTM), H. K. C. Yee (Toronto),
BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 231 Inference for Regression.
Slide Slide 1 Chapter 10 Correlation and Regression 10-1 Overview 10-2 Correlation 10-3 Regression 10-4 Variation and Prediction Intervals 10-5 Multiple.
Plumbing the Depths The art and frustrations of measuring eclipsing binary minima Tom Richards VSSS4, Sydney, Easter
Light Curves of Eclipsing Binaries and other problems Tom Richards (Kangaroo Ground, Vic, AU), David Moriarty (Wellington Point, Qld, AU) Margaret Streamer.
Stats Methods at IC Lecture 3: Regression.
Clinical Calculation 5th Edition
AP Biology Intro to Statistics
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL
Math in Science In science we use the metric system to make measurements in the lab The basic unit of the metric system include: Gram (mass) Liter (volume)
Everyone thinks they know this stuff
Prepared by Lee Revere and John Large
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
How to Start your Lab Report
AD Canis Minoris: a δ Scuti Star in a Binary System
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Basic Practice of Statistics - 3rd Edition Inference for Regression
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
DSS-ESTIMATING COSTS Cost estimation is the process of estimating the relationship between costs and cost driver activities. We estimate costs for three.
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
9/27/ A Least-Squares Regression.
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
Model Adequacy Checking
Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
CHAPTER 3 Describing Relationships
Presentation transcript:

Jeff Byron Variable Stars South and Northern Sydney Astronomical Society

 A plot of ToM against cycle number should be a straight line within the limits allowed by ToM error values, (unless there is variation in the period). But scale values make it impractical to graphically verify this!

 However, a plot of O-C against cycle number should also be a straight line within the limits allowed by ToM error values and this can be graphically verified.

 For an observation to match a set of Light Elements, that straight line should be the horizontal axis.

 However, a plot of O-C against cycle number should also be a straight line within the limits allowed by ToM error values and this can be graphically verified.  For an observation to match a set of Light Elements, that straight line should be the horizontal axis.  It is NOT sufficient that O-C is less than O-C error.

 Use the most recent observation with low ToM uncertainty.

 Analyst process data should be recorded to make measurement repeatable.  Data points excluded  Process used  Limits used  Combinations averaged

 Unfortunately, Peranso is very cumbersome for recording this data.

 Asymmetries in a light curve cause KvW (& other) processes to return "ToM" values which are dependant on the phase range analysed.

 Recorded Error values depend upon:  Actual accuracy of photometry.  Phase duration & “density” of observations.  Process Used (Polynomial, Kwee & van Woerden, etc)  Incorrect reporting by software (e.g. Peranso)

 Recorded Error values depend upon:  Actual accuracy of photometry.  Phase duration & “density” of observations.  Process Used (Polynomial, Kwee & van Woerden, etc)  Incorrect reporting by software (e.g. Peranso)  If the last of these effects dominates, there is no point in using Weighted Regression.

 Publically available data (e.g. ASAS) can extend the time frame over which measurements are made.  This has the effect of adding precision to the light elements – provided there has been no changes in period in the intervening time. (This is an important proviso!)

 Download text file from web site.  Check RA & Dec match for each data set.  Select data – “A” grade only.  (To speed the last 2 processes, the author developed a computer program to handle them.)  Plot phase-folded ASAS (HJD, mag) values along with VSS observers’ data, using VSS data generated period.

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure DI Cen: Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure Adjust period to achieve best possible correlation between ASAS and VSS data “by eye”. DI Cen: Plot Period =

 In some cases, no period gives a good correlation between ASAS and VSS data.  In such cases, cannot use ASAS data to refine Light Elements.

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure CT Phi Plot Period =

Where correlation between ASAS and VSS data appears reasonable “by eye”:  Select median date of ASAS observations.  Using this date and corresponding phase as reference, phase fold all ASAS data.  Generate a table and graph of “pseudo HJD” and magnitude as though all observations were in one cycle.

 After deleting “outlier” points, use software tool of choice to determine Time-of-Minimum and associated error value. (Bob Nelson’s “Tracing Paper” often suitable in presence of large scatter of data points.)  Add this (ToM, error) value to Excel “Linest” and weighted regression procedures to obtain provisional improved light elements.

Incorporation of ASAS Data - Procedure Sanity Check DI Cen: Plot Period = (Weighted Regression value including ASAS.)

 Currently still a “work in progress”.  Includes “standard” KvW.  Uses “least squares” fitting for polynomial and Mikulasek model fitting.  Rather than relying on errors reported by the KvW or Least Squares routines, uses statistical re-sampling (Jackknife).  Generates a table of values for a range of observation intervals included in the process.

 Minima Timing of Eclipsing Binaries Brat, L; Mikulasek, Z; & Pejcha,O (2012)  A method for computing accurately the epoch of minimum of an eclipsing variable Kwee, K. K. & van Woerden, H. Bulletin of the Astronomical Institutes of the Netherlands, Vol. 12, p BAN K  A FORTRAN Subroutine for Determining Times of Minimum Light Mallama, A. D. International Amateur-Professional Photoelectric Photometry Communication, No. 7, p IAPPP M  Southern Eclipsing Binaries Programme - Basic Analysis Procedures Richards, T. analysis-procedure

 Margaret Streamer and other VSS Observers and Analysts for information and comments during development of "Revised Light Elements of 78 Southern Eclipsing Binary Systems“

 My wife Julie – without whose help I would never have had the time to develop this paper.