Assessing potential impacts of an earned regularisation of irregular migrants in the UK : retrospect on a 2009 study Ian Gordon LSE London research group, Geography department London School of Economics Migrant Rights Centre Ireland seminar on the contribution of undocumented workers in Ireland and the benefits of regularisation, Dublin, 3 rd May 2016.

The 2009 LSE London Study Commissioned by the Mayor (Boris Johnson) as part of an agreement with Strangers to Citizens during 2008 mayoral election campaign A rapid review of numbers potentially eligible for an earned regularisation scheme, and likely economic/ fiscal effects of this. Covering diverse mix of failed asylum seekers, overstayers, illegal entrants (and their children), with no right to stay but low prob. of deportation Without direct data, but working through a series of indirect inferences, assumptions and interpretations –Derived from statistical sources and qualitative studies/ informants Brief: –to review lessons from international experience –to estimate numbers eligible for such a scheme –to identify/quantify likely economic and fiscal effects

The Context of the Time – and Since At time of study, many ‘irregulars’ had de facto access to both jobs and services In wake of the unmanaged asylum seeker influx around 2000, triangular strategy put in place: –Case resolution of the 450k ‘legacy’ cases; –Tightening of entry controls and faster processing; –Planned path to earned citizenship, vis reduced rights for regular migrants until then Subsequently: –Case resolution regularised c.70% of concluded cases (and 90%+ for families) –Half the backlog were not resolved, however, with major ambiguity as to whether: No longer present in the UK (basic Home Office view); or Untraced / hidden and more completely irregular ???? –Much tighter policing of jobs, housing and services

Estimating Numbers & Impacts For overall numbers at Census date 2001 accept prior (HO) ‘residual’ estimates (enumerated less de jure foreign born). Estimate failed asylum seeker element (about 70%) –and illegal/overstayer split Use intelligence + evidence on regularisations to update each component to end-2007 –Adding estimate for UK-born children Assign to likely origins& arrival dates Use this, together with micro-data from Labour Force Survey to estimate proportion eligible for scheme – and other characteristics Including the difference that irregularity per se is likely to have made to: employment rates; pay rates; tax/insurance contributions etc. –as distinct from other sources of relative (di)sadvantage (ethnicity, qualifications, religion, age etc.)

Findings about Numbers and Economic Position at end 2007 Around 530k irregular migrants in the UK + about 80k UK-born children (± about 200k) Of whom about 80% could be eligible for earned regularisation (on 5 year crime-free residence basis) Being irregular only seemed to lower employment rates by about 6% (less than other sources of disadvantage) But depressed earnings rates much more (about 30%) Irregular workers seemed to contribute about half as much in tax/insurance as legal counterparts

Economic and Fiscal Impacts GDP: regularising workers could add £3bn (0.3%) to GDP Taxes: formalisation and higher earnings could add raise tax take by £700m in short run and £850m in longer run). Public service costs could rise less in the short-run (c. £400m in the UK), rising to perhaps £1bn when migrants had full entitlements. All have substantial margins of uncertainty – but net impacts on others seem

Despite much uncertainty, real benefits to regularised migrants don’t seem to be offset by predictable losses to others. Real impacts will depend on how actual scheme is designed. Making it work depends on complementary policies to address equal opportunities and the informal sector A major concern is seen to be the potential incentive effect of a successful scheme but the effect is unlikely to be large Actual regularisation in the UK has occurred despite an absence of any open policy Our Summary Judgements