June 21, 2016

*Data is current through 6/15/16

 Shooting Victimization and Firearm Robberies are key indicators  Violent Retaliatory Disputes play a major role  Geographic hotspots have remained consistent  A small number of individuals account for a disproportionate amount of violence  Almost all of the crime guns seized by RPD are illegally possessed

 Weapon Type:  78.7% involved a firearm  9.8% involved a knife/cutting instrument  8.2% involved hands/fists only  Circumstances:  Victim knew the suspect in roughly 2 of every 3 events  Over half of all cases involved a dispute of some kind  Victims:

 45.8% of all robberies involve a firearm  Small amount of robberies result in the discharge of firearm  Nearly 25% of shooting incidents occurred in furtherance of another crime with drug-related street robbery being most common at 20.5%  About half (49.2%) of robberies occur between 3pm- 11pm  80.1% involved a suspect unknown to the victim  Street robberies are the most prevalent type  Roughly 75% of all robberies occur outdoors  Heavily geographically concentrated

 48.0% of all aggravated assaults involve only a threat of violence with a weapon (Menacing 2 nd )  Indicative of interpersonal disputes  No actual injury occurs  Consistent level over past 5 years  Weapon type in physical assaults:  36.6% involved a firearm  34.1% involved a knife  7.2% involved no weapon  Non-Random Violence: 59.7% of aggravated assaults involve a victim and suspect who know each other (acquaintance or intra-family)  11.1% of all aggravated assaults occur within the family  24.4% of all aggravated assaults involve an intimate partner  Relationship is unknown or not given in 22.9% of cases

 In the last 5 years 32.1% of all firearm-related violent crime resulted in someone getting shot  Roughly 60% of shooting incidents resulted from some type of dispute  : Majority of shooting victims (and suspects) are young African American males who have criminal records and reside in impoverished city neighborhoods  85% of all shooting victims were African American  87.5% of all shooting victims had a criminal history at the time of shooting ▪ 40% had a previous illicit substance arrest ▪ 37% had a previous violent crime arrest ▪ 46% had a previous property crime arrest  37% of all shooting victims were gang affiliated at the time of shooting  Roughly 1/3 of all shooting victims had previously been the victim of a violent crime  Less than half of all shooting incidents resulted in a suspect being identified

 2015 results:  Total firearm seizures were up 59.7 from 2014 and 17.4% from the 5-yr. average  Crime gun seizures were up 32.5% from 2014 and 6.5% from the 5-yr. average  On average about 58% of crime guns were legally registered in NYS at some point  Very few of them are in the permit holders possession when we recover them  Burglaries and drug trading are common reasons

 A majority of police work involves low-level disputes which do not result in violence  But a lot of violence (60% of shootings) does involve disputes  Differentiating between low risk and high risk disputes is important  Disputes involve a series of connected incidents  Police work is not usually organized around the concept of dispute but analysis shows that many are linked

 Disputes  Immediate vs. Ongoing  Types:  Simple interpersonal (insult, girls, etc)  Domestic  Gang  Drug business-related  Limited opportunities for intervention on immediate disputes  Ongoing disputes are essentially crime patterns for assault Violent Retaliatory Disputes An ongoing string (two or more) of back-and forth violence between the disputants and their associates Extends across multiple acts of violence and over a time frame of days, weeks, months, or years Violent Disputes Argument leads to Violent Act Can be short-term and end, or can escalate to a violent retaliatory dispute Non-Violent Disputes Verbal Confrontations Minor Physical Interaction Can be short or long-term in duration

1. Current event violence 2. Linked past events 3. Involvement of weapons in this dispute 4. Participants’ prior violence 5. Participants’ reputation 6. Participants gang, drug, gun, recent incarceration history 7. Recruited or family problem connections 8. Associates’ gang, gun, drug history 9. Physical proximity of parties 10. Other aggravating or mitigating factors

 Early dispute identification and intervention  Firearm hotspot policing  Targeting high-risk firearm offenders