Freshwater flows to bays and estuaries Paul Montagna George Ward University of Texas at Austin.

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Presentation transcript:

Freshwater flows to bays and estuaries Paul Montagna George Ward University of Texas at Austin

PROBLEMS SCIENTIFIC: POLICY: REGULATORY: WHAT IS THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLOW AND THE ESTUARY ECOSYSTEM? WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ECOSYSTEM MAINTENANCE? HOW DO WE IMPLEMENT THE AGREED POLICY AND ENSURE THAT IT WORKS?

SCIENCE POLICY REGULATORY E = f(Q) Q(s,t) monitor

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT (currents, mixing, water depths) WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES (water quality) (distribution & abundance of organisms) CAUSEEFFECT

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT (currents, mixing, water depths) WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES (water quality) (distribution & abundance of organisms) WARDMONTAGNA

OCEAN RIVER ESTUARY BOUNDARY ZONE

ESTUARIES transitional systems, between freshwater and marine hydrography and chemistry governed by both terrestrial and marine controls terrestrial controls: freshwater influxes, flooding & inundation, runoff and inflow loads (sediment, nutrients, pollutants), and atmospheric deposition marine controls: tides, waves, non-astronomical sea-level variations, marine storms, salinity, and littoral sediment influx predominance of these factors depends upon position in estuary: pronounced environmental gradients extreme time variability in estuary

Sabine Lake Galveston Bay Matagorda Bay San Antonio Bay Aransas-Copano Bays Corpus Christi Bay Upper Laguna Madre- Baffin Bay Lower Laguna Madre

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES INTERNAL VARIABLES EXTERNAL VARIABLESEXTERNAL (FORCING) VARIABLES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES OCEAN SALINITY INFLOW TIDES METEOROLOGY LOADS INSOLATION MIGRATION

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIES

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages 2 - Relate variables statistically

SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIES 1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages 2 - Relate variables statistically

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES OCEAN SALINITY INFLOW TIDES METEOROLOGY LOADS INSOLATION MIGRATION

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES OCEAN SALINITY INFLOW TIDES METEOROLOGY LOADS INSOLATION MIGRATION

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES OCEAN SALINITY INFLOW TIDES METEOROLOGY LOADS INSOLATION MIGRATION 1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES WATERBORNE CONSTITUENTS HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT CURRENTS DENSITY MIXING SOLIDS NUTRIENTS SALINITY OTHERS FLORA HERBIVORES CARNIVORES OCEAN SALINITY INFLOW TIDES METEOROLOGY LOADS INSOLATION MIGRATION 2 - Relate variables statistically

Any assumed functional variation of a model represents a source of error. Any external variable not explicitly modeled represents a source of variance. TWO PRECEPTS

Hydrology of Texas estuaries

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS RAINFALL PRODUCED ALMOST ENTIRELY FROM DEEP CONVECTION DECLINES PRECIPITOUSLY FROM EAST TO WEST

Isohyets in inches/year

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS RUNOFF SMALL AS A PROPORTION OF RAINFALL DECLINES EVEN MORE PRECIPITOUSLY FROM EAST TO WEST

RUNOFF / RAINFALL

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS STREAM FLOW FLASHY SUBSTANTIAL YEAR-TO-YEAR (& LONG-TERM) VARIABILITY

Guadalupe River at Victoria daily flow 30-day sliding mean

years

Mid-Galveston Bay salinity versus Trinity River flow

Freshwater flows to bays and estuaries Paul Montagna George Ward University of Texas at Austin