The conflict in Donbas region: challenges, solutions Olga Reznikova, PHd Head of the National Security Research Department The National Institute for Strategic Studies Kiev, Ukraine
The main scenarios of conflict resolution in Donbas region: Radical, but with a low likelihood: Combat action; “The wall” (cutting, isolation). Realistic, with a high likelihood: Frozen conflict (highest likelihood in short-term perspective); Reintegration (pretty high likelihood in long-term perspective).
The strategic goal of Ukraine is a restoration of territorial integrity of the state within internationally recognized borders Tasks: reintegration of the temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories; restoration of the rule of law (Ukrainian jurisdiction) on the whole Ukraine`s territory; decrease in national security threats.
Current situation in Donbas region is still stressful and delivers a lot of threats for national security of Ukraine The fire has not been stopped completely. A part of Ukrainian state border with Russia along a territory of conflict is still open. Russian military troops have not been still removed from Ukraine. Quasi-state creations and terrorist groups in Donbas region are totally controlled and supplied by Russia. There are a lot of obstacles for a civil monitoring mission activity in Donbas region in combat.
Fighting in Donbas region is a part of Russian hybrid war against Ukraine The main goal of Russian policy in Ukraine is saving its control under Ukraine. It needs creating: a constant source of turbulence inside Ukraine for a long time; a possibility for intervention in Ukrainian state politics.
Main actions of Ukraine aimed to conflict resolution in Donbas region: Implementation of the Minsk agreement; Localization a conflict (especially warfare); Creating a new ways and possibility for communication between occupied part of Donbas region and other regions of Ukraine; Countermeasures against Russian propaganda in this region.
Localization of a conflict (especially warfare) is an important part of providing a national security. Threats caused by uncontrolled conflict: spreading a conflict to other territories of a country; illegal traffic of people, goods, weapons; spreading a crime.
Some actions by Ukrainian power connected to conflict localization limit some people’s rights but the most of actions are aimed to meet their needs Control the contact line. Setting up check-points along the contact line. Providing social and medical care for people who live in occupied territories in other regions of Ukraine. Development a new quality of relationship and cooperation between militaries and civilians. Creating new media channels for people in Donbas region.
The document, established the procedure of control along the contact line, was elaborated in cooperation between state bodies and representatives of civil society from Donbas region.
There are no facts proved intentions by occupation power in Donbas region to stop violence and to reintegrate into Ukraine. How occupation power acts in Donbas region: create their own laws, state bodies, armed forces, police; appeal for continuation a fighting with Ukraine; use a foreign state currency (Russian ruble); use Russian standards in education; destroy Ukrainian state symbols; Block an access to Ukrainian media; victimize people who support Ukrainian power.
De-facto Russia is transforming quasi-states “DPR/LPR” due to Russians rules. At the same time Russia declares necessity of their reintegration into Ukraine. Actions by Russia in Donbas region: Support and supply terrorist groups, train them; Participate in fighting; Control self-proclaimed power in these quasi-states; Imitate peace process in Minsk.
Does Ukraine really need a control line?
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Thank you for attention