1 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days.

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1 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Hurricane – GFDL, WRF GLOFS Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware

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3 Forecaster (HPC) Skill Annual Threat Scores: 1.00 Inch

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5 AttributeCFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004 CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011 Analysis Resolution200 km27 km Atmosphere model2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds 2010: 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

NCEP/CFSv1NCEP/CFSv2ECMWFUKMETMETF Atmospheric Model T62L64T126L64Syst 3: T159L92 Glosea4 (120km) L85 T42L91 (T63-linear grid) Ocean ModelMOM3 L deg Eq, 1deg 65N- 75S (no seaice model) MOM4 L deg Eq, 0.5 deg global (3-layer interactive seaice model) HOPE L deg Eq NEMO L deg Eq ORCA 0.5 deg Eq Period of Hindcasts (29 years) (29 years) (29 years) (14 years) (29 years) Number of hindcast members 1524(28) Number of Leads 0-9 months 0-7 months0-6 months EUROSIP MODELS

February 4-11, 2010 : “Snowmageddon” February 4-7, 2010: massive winter storm paralyzes mid-Atlantic region –Locations in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia recorded more than 30 inches of snow. –Washington DC’s two-day total of 17.8 inches ranked as the fourth highest total storm amount in history. –Philadelphia’s 28.5 inches ranked as the second highest amount –Baltimore’s 24.8 inches ranked as its third highest storm total amount Strong blizzard during February 9-11 affects same areas still digging out from earlier storm. –Produced as much as 14 inches in the D.C. area, 20 inches in Baltimore, 17 inches in New Jersey, more than 27 inches in Pennsylvania, and 24 inches in northern Maryland. Storm system predicted 7+ days in advance; potential for heavy snow 3-5 days in advance States implement COOP plans, airlines cancel flights, retail industry pre-stocks shelves 7 Feb 4-7, 2010Feb 9-11,

States declare emergency days before snow Airlines cancel thousands of flights at least a day in advance Stores adjust to optimize retail sales entire week before the storm –Low to no impact on GNP 1 Federal disaster declared; facilitates snow removal, and faster recovery! Impacts “Snowmageddon” 8 1 Some studies (Liscio Reports from ) show that major NE snowstorms in the 1990s negatively impacted economic indices for months after the event, including GNP.

Icelandic Volcano On Saturday May 21, 2011, a large and intense eruption came from the Icelandic volcano, Grimsvotn, ejecting fine particle ash to a height of 20 km (12 miles). This eruption did not have nearly the aviation impact as last year’s Eyjafjallajokull eruption – Ash from the Grimsvotn eruption was 50-60% larger and fell out more quickly. – Many new European airspace management procedures were put into place to better manage the airspace during volcanic ash events following the closure of much of the European airspace last year. The eruption was an opportunity for NCEP and the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (W-VAAC) to use the upgraded to the HYSPLIT dispersion modeling system for volcanic ash. 9 Concentrations (two hour average)