Global Impact of Biotech Crops: economic & environmental effects Graham Brookes PG Economics Ltd UK ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Background 11 th annual review of global GM crop impacts Authors of 22 papers on GM crop impacts in peer review journals Current review in 2 open access papers in journal GM Crops. Full report available at ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Coverage Cumulative impact: Farm income & productivity impacts: focuses on farm income, yield, production Environmental impact analysis covering pesticide spray changes & associated environmental impact Environmental impact analysis: greenhouse gas emissions ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Methodology  Review and use of considerable economic impact literature plus own analysis  Uses current prices, exch rates and yields (for each year) & update of key costs each year: gives dynamic element to analysis  Review of pesticide usage (volumes used) or typical GM versus conventional treatments  Use of Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) indicator  Review of literature on carbon impacts – fuel changes and soil carbon ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Key Findings Pesticide change Pesticide change million kg reduction in pesticides & 18.5% cut in associated environmental impact Global farm income Global farm income Carbon emission 2014 cut of 22.4 billion kg co2 release; equal to taking 10 million cars off the road $150.3 billion increase ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Farm income gains 2014: highlights  Total farm income benefit $ 17.7 billion  Equal to adding value to global production of these four crops of 7.2%  Average gain/hectare: $101  Income share: 51% developed and 49% developing countries ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Farm income gains by country (US $) ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Other farm level benefits GM HT cropsGM IR crops Increased management flexibility/convenience Production risk management tool Facilitation of no till practicesMachinery & energy cost savings Cleaner crops = lower harvest cost & quality premia Yield gains for non GM crops (reduced general pest levels) Less damage in follow on cropsConvenience benefit Improved crop quality Improved health & safety for farmers/workers ©PG Economics Ltd 2016 In US these benefits valued at $12.3 billion

Cost of accessing the technology ($ billion) 2014 ©PG Economics Ltd 2016  Distribution of total trait benefit: all (tech cost 28%) – every $1 invested in seed = $3.59 in extra income  Distribution of benefit: developing countries (tech cost 23%) every $1 invested in seed = $4.42 in extra income Cost of tech goes to seed supply chain (sellers of seed to farmers, seed multipliers, plant breeders, distributors & tech providers )

Yield gains versus cost savings  65% ($98.2 billion) of total farm income gain due to yield gains  Remaining gains from cost savings  Yield gains mainly from GM IR technology & cost savings mainly from GM HT technology  Yield gains greatest in developing countries & cost savings mainly in developed countries  HT technology also facilitated no tillage systems – allowed second crops (soy) in the same season in S America ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

IR corn: average yield increase ©PG Economics Ltd 2016 Average across all countries: +13.1%

IR cotton: average yield increase ©PG Economics Ltd 2016 Average across all countries: +17.3%

IR soybeans: average yield increase ©PG Economics Ltd 2016 Average across all countries: +9.4%

HT traits: yield and production effects Trait/countryYield/production effect HT soy: Romania, Mexico, Bolivia+23%, +5% & +15% respectively on yield HT soy: 2 nd generation: US & Canada+9.9% yield HT soy Argentina & ParaguayFacilitation of 2 nd crop soy after wheat: equal to +20% and +10% respectively to production level HT corn: Argentina, Brazil, Philippines+10%, +5% & +5.5% respectively on yield HT cotton: Mexico, Colombia, Brazil+10%, +4% & +1.6% respectively on yield HT canola: US, Canada & Australia+2.3%, +7.3% & +11% respectively on yield ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Additional crop production arising from positive yield effects of biotech traits (million tonnes) ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Additional conventional area required if biotech not used (m ha) Soybeans Maize Cotton Canola Total ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Impact on pesticide use  Since 1996, use of pesticides down by 581 m kg (-8.2%) & associated environmental impact -18.5% - equivalent to total China pesticide active ingredient use on crops for more than one year  Largest environmental gains from GM IR cotton: savings of 249 million kg insecticide use & 28% reduction in associated environmental impact of insecticides ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Impact on greenhouse gas emissions Lower GHG emissions: 2 main sources:  Reduced fuel use (less spraying & soil cultivation)  GM HT crops facilitate no till systems = less soil preparation = additional soil carbon storage ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Reduced GHG emissions: 2014  Reduced fuel use (less spraying & tillage) = 2.4 billion kg less carbon dioxide  Facilitation of no/low till systems = 20 billion kg of carbon dioxide not released into atmosphere ©PG Economics Ltd 2016 Equivalent to removing 10 million cars — 34% of cars registered in the United Kingdom — from the road for one year

Reduced GHG emissions:  less fuel use = 21.7 billion kg co2 emission saving (9.64 m cars off the road)  additional soil carbon sequestration = 187 billion kg co2 saving if land retained in permanent no tillage. BUT only a proportion remains in continuous no till so real figure is lower (lack of data means not possible to calculate) ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Concluding comments  Technology used by 18 m farmers on m ha in 2015  Delivered important economic & environmental benefits  + $150.3 billion to farm income since 1996  -581 m kg pesticides & 18.5% reduction in env impact associated with pesticide use since 1996  Carbon dioxide emissions down by 22.4 billion kg in 2014: equal to 10 m cars off the road for a year ©PG Economics Ltd 2016

Concluding comments  GM IR technology : higher yields, less production risk, decreased insecticide use leading to improved productivity and returns and more environmentally farming methods  GM HT technology : combination of direct benefits (mostly cost reductions) & facilitation of changes in farming systems (no till & use of broad spectrum products) plus major GHG emission gains  Both technologies have made important contributions to increasing world production levels of soybeans, corn, canola and cotton  GM HT technology has seen over reliance on use of glyphosate by some farmers in North/South America: contributed to weed resistance problems and need to change/adapt weed control practices. Resulted in increases in herbicide use and costs of production in last 10 years but environmental impact of herbicides used are still better than conventional crop alternative and GM HT crops still more profitable ©PG Economics Ltd 2016