Obstacles to On-Time Graduation A Look at Retention and Failure Rate Data

Goals Share the compelling “Why?” Dig into your own data Reflect and discuss “Homework” assignment for next time

College-Going Diagnostic Results Examining On-Track Status through High School Graduation in WCPSS Dr. Darryl Hill Director, Performance Strategy and Analytics Office of the Chief of Staff Matthew Lenard Director, Data Strategy and Analytics Data and Accountability High School Team Retreat | July 16th, 2015 Logo cover

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence The College-Going Diagnostic Pathway (ON-TRACK STATUS) Source: Strategic Data Project

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence District Average data sources: first-time ninth graders. Post-secondary enrollment outcomes from NSC matched records. All other district data from WCPSS administrative records. Results exclude students who transferred out of WCPSS. State Average and U.S Average data sources: first-time ninth graders; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence 90

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence Pathway Trends: Key Findings WCPSS exceeded state and national averages throughout the ninth-grade to college persistence pathway Roughly two-thirds of FRPL-eligible students graduate on time and just over a quarter persist into their second year of college. Black and Hispanic students progressed from ninth grade into the 2nd year of college at rates about half their White and Asian counterparts

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence Decision Rules Created an “on-track” indicator using total credits and course requirements in English and Mathematics Attempted to identify Career Prep and College Tech Prep Excluded alternative schools and Wake Early College Excluded transfers-in and transfers-out Cannot determine credit and course patterns for transfers-in Cannot follow transfers-out to determine recovery and graduation rates Analysis focused on ninth-grade cohort

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence How SDP Defines On-Track Status Graduation requirements were determined using guidelines for the ninth-grade cohort. These requirements differ by school and course of study. Year in High SchoolMath CreditsELA CreditsTotal Credits First Year116.5 Second Year2213 Third Year Graduation4426 Example: On-Track Requirements for a Future Ready Core Student in Garner High School We restricted the sample to include only: 1) first-time ninth graders attending their ninth- grade year at a WCPSS high school, 2) students who never transferred out of the district in high school, and 3) students enrolled in WCPSS sequentially from one year to the next. We exclude non-sequential enrollers and transfer-out students because we are unable to observe their credit accumulation completely.

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence On-Track Status: Key Findings More than a third of students in the cohort were off track at some point in high school, 70% in the ninth grade alone Just under half of the district’s off-track students at the end of 9th grade went on to graduate on time in 2013 More than two-thirds of students missing three off-track indicators dropped out, compared to one-third missing two indicators and 15% missing one indicators Students in the bottom quartile of 8th grade math had higher off-track rates than those in reading Among subgroups, ELL students had the highest off-track rate (47%) and Hispanic students had the lowest recovery rate (40%)

Data Dig Retention and Graduation Rates by School for WCPSS Freshmen Course Grade Distribution (summary data) Course Grade Distribution Data for for your school vs. WCPSS

Reflection and Discussion What does the data tell you about your school? What additional data might you need to see? (e.g. disaggregated reports, grade distribution by teacher...) How will you address what you see? What strategies can be employed by teachers, PLTs, and administrators to address any issues you have identified?

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