Utilizing High-Resolution WRF Model Output to Improve NWS Forecasts in Complex Terrain Brett E. McDonald, Ph.D. Science and Operations Officer National.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Use of Lidar Backscatter to Determine the PBL Heights in New York City, NY Jia-Yeong Ku, Chris Hogrefe, Gopal Sistla New York State Department of Environmental.

Advertisements

The use of a high resolution model in a private environment

A NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES A.V.Starchenko Tomsk State University.

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” NCEP CONDUIT UPDATE Brent A Gordon NCEP Central Operations January 31, 2006.

Hongli Jiang 1,3, Michelle Harrold 2,3 and Jamie Wolff 2,3 1: NOAA/ESRL/CIRA, Colorado State University 2: NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory 3: Developmental.

Assessing the impact of soil moisture on the diurnal evolution of the PBL and on orographic cumulus development over the Santa Catalina Mountains during.

Aspects of 6 June 2007: A Null “Moderate Risk” of Severe Weather Jonathan Kurtz Department of Geosciences University of Nebraska at Lincoln NOAA/NWS Omaha/Valley,

NOAA/NWS Change to WRF 13 June What’s Happening? WRF replaces the eta as the NAM –NAM is the North American Mesoscale “timeslot” or “Model Run”

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of SPoRT Datasets Utilizing a local WRF.

Issues in Very High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Over Complex Terrain in Juneau, Alaska Don Morton 1,2, Delia Arnold 3,4, Irene Schicker 3,

Convection-permitting forecasts initialized with continuously-cycling limited-area 3DVAR, EnKF and “hybrid” data assimilation systems Craig Schwartz and.

The Effect of the Terrain on Monsoon Convection in the Himalayan Region Socorro Medina 1, Robert Houze 1, Anil Kumar 2,3 and Dev Niyogi 3 Conference on.

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System Cliff Mass, Dave Ovens, Jeff Baars, Mark Albright, Phil Regulski, Dave Carey University of Washington.

Nesting. Eta Model Hybrid and Eta Coordinates ground MSL ground Pressure domain Sigma domain  = 0  = 1  = 1 Ptop  = 0.

Rapid Update Cycle Model William Sachman and Steven Earle ESC452 - Spring 2006.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center (HPC) Forecast Operations Branch Winter Weather Desk Dan Petersen.

Brian Ancell, Cliff Mass, Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

The Puget Sound Regional Environmental Prediction System: An Update.

MOS Performance MOS significantly improves on the skill of model output. National Weather Service verification statistics have shown a narrowing gap between.

Atmospheric Modeling at RENCI Brian J. Etherton. Atmospheric Modeling at RENCI Focus of RENCI for C- STAR project is to provide modeling support/development.

Consortium Meeting June 3, Thanks Mike! Hit Rates.

The Rapid Evolution of Convection Approaching New York City and Long Island Michael Charles and Brian A. Colle Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Supercell Thunderstorms.

Weather Information for the Ballooning Community Jennifer McNatt Lead Forecaster National Weather Service Tampa Bay Office.

The Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting (HWRF) Prediction System Next generation non-hydrostatic weather research and hurricane prediction system.

Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling Tom Hultquist Science & Operations Officer NOAA/National Weather Service Marquette, MI.

Nesting. Eta Model Eta Coordinate And Step Mountains MSL ground  = 1 Ptop  = 0.

Brandt Maxwell Meteorologist

Applied Meteorology Unit 1 An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NWS Environmental Modeling System 31.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency Lt Col Jeffrey S. Tongue Individual Mobilization Augmentee Air Force Weather.

The National Environmental Agency of Georgia L. Megrelidze, N. Kutaladze, Kh. Kokosadze NWP Local Area Models’ Failure in Simulation of Eastern Invasion.

1 What is the “NAM”? David Novak Science and Operations Officer NOAA/NCEP/ Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Intelligent Use of LAPS By Ed Szoke and Steve Albers 16 December 1999.

NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP

OUTLINE Current state of Ensemble MOS

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but.

WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 9/16/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Regional Modeling using MODIS SST composites Prepared.

Experiences with 0-36 h Explicit Convective Forecasting with the WRF-ARW Model Morris Weisman (Wei Wang, Chris Davis) NCAR/MMM WSN05 September 8, 2005.

The Rapid Evolution of Convection Approaching the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle and Michael Charles Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary.

Model Post Processing. Model Output Can Usually Be Improved with Post Processing Can remove systematic bias Can produce probabilistic information from.

Performance of the Experimental 4.5 km WRF-NMM Model During Recent Severe Weather Outbreaks Steven Weiss, John Kain, David Bright, Matthew Pyle, Zavisa.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Major U.S. High-Resolution Mesoscale Models (all non-hydrostatic ) WRF-ARW (developed at NCAR) NMM-B (developed.

WRF Problems: Some Solutions, Some Mysteries Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.

THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND SHEAR

NASA-SPoRT satellite products at WFO MRX Doug Schneider Morristown, TN.

Weather and its Impact on Aviation Operations National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska Kearney Explorers Club November 21, 2006.

An Investigation of the Mesoscale Predictability over the Northeast U.S.        Brian A. Colle, Matthew Jones, and Joseph Olson Institute for Terrestrial.

Norman Weather Forecast Office Gabe Garfield 2/23/11.

USING CLIMATOLOGY TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO Stan Rose, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, CO.

An Examination Of Interesting Properties Regarding A Physics Ensemble 2012 WRF Users’ Workshop Nick P. Bassill June 28 th, 2012.

Modeling and Evaluation of Antarctic Boundary Layer

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF and the coastal marine environment Kate LaCasse SOO/SPoRT Workshop 11 July.

Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Technology Transfer NOAA – Earth System Research Laboratory Steve Albers, Brent Shaw, and Ed Szoke LAPS Analyses.

August 6, 2001Presented to MIT/LL The LAPS “hot start” Initializing mesoscale forecast models with active cloud and precipitation processes Paul Schultz.

Vincent N. Sakwa RSMC, Nairobi

An examination of the potential aviation application of high-resolution convective resolving models initialized with LAPS and STMAS Ed Szoke 1,2, Isidora.

Brian Freitag 1 Udaysankar Nair 1 Yuling Wu – University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Higher Resolution Operational Models

15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Hot-Start with RSA Applications by Steve Albers.

WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 10/21/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of MODIS SST Utilizing a local WRF.

Applied Meteorology Unit 1 Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model Leela R. Watson William H. Bauman.

Mesoscale Assimilation of Rain-Affected Observations Clark Amerault National Research Council Postdoctoral Associate - Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey,

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2013

NOAA - LAPS Albers, S., 1995: The LAPS wind analysis. Wea. and Forecasting, 10, Albers, S., J. McGinley, D. Birkenheuer, and J. Smart, 1996:

452 Precipitation.

Start Hot-Start Section

Presentation transcript:

Utilizing High-Resolution WRF Model Output to Improve NWS Forecasts in Complex Terrain Brett E. McDonald, Ph.D. Science and Operations Officer National Weather Service – Riverton, WY WFO 13 th Conference on Mesoscale Processes August 2009 Salt Lake City, UT

Topography Comparison High Res Topo Local WRF (4 km) NAM (12 km) GFS (40 km)

Outline Riverton, WY WFO Local Modeling History & Current Configuration Operational Uses at Riverton, WY WFO Case Studies o Outflow Boundaries from Convection o Diurnal Mountain/Valley Flows o Downslope Windstorms

RIW Local Modeling Early 2003 – Early 2006: Workstation Eta ~5-8 km o Very similar to operational Eta settings Early 2006 – Present: Workstation WRF ~4 km o Initial and Boundary conditions: o 12 km NAM – daytime run o ~40 km GFS – nighttime run o 48 hours forecast (fhr06-fhr54) from 00Z & 12Z cycles o 4 km Staggered Horizontal Resolution (301x271) -> ~2.86 km output o 31 Vertical Sigma Levels o Timestep set to 8 seconds to avoid CFL Instabilities o NMM core o No Cumulus Parameterization Scheme -> Explicit Convection o Ferrier Microphysics o Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Boundary Layer Scheme o NMM Land Surface Model

RIW Local Modeling Uinta Mountains Wind River Mountains YNP Bighorn Mountains Black Hills Domain Considerations: 1 – Computer Resources (# of dual-processor machines) 2 – Forecast Requirements (upstream area; IFPS/GFE domain coverage; other office support) 3 – Avoid Boundary Instabilities Tetons

RIW Local Modeling 12Z15Z18Z21Z00Z18Z (Day2) NAM Available Script begins – download data Model starts (4 dual-processor LINUX machines – post-processing on 1 other) Start pushing output to AWIPS / Intranet (text message sent to forecasters) Model Finishes (~5h 20m) Output ALL processed and posted (follow-up text message) 6 hr NAM forecast = 0 hr WRF analysis 12 hr NAM forecast = 6 hr WRF Boundary Condition 54 hr NAM forecast ~ 48 hr WRF Forecast

RIW Local Modeling Wish List: Investigate ARW Core – better precipitation and surface wind forecasts? o Alternate NMM and ARW cores each day (ensemble approach) Enlarge Domain to cover entire CYS and BYZ forecast areas for service backup and share forecasts “Hot Start” LAPS Initialization to provide better start to model Nesting down to 2 km or finer to better represent processes in complex terrain 1 hour Output in AWIPS for first 24 hours

Operational Uses RIW Intranet: Java Animation Loops

Operational Uses Loop RIW_WRF_NMM Composite Reflectivity 18Z 05 August ~45 hours

Operational Uses Loop RIW_WRF_NMM 1-hr Total Precipitation 18Z 05 August ~45 hours

Operational Uses BUFR Sounding Data in BUFKIT906: 69 Locations throughout domain Aviation sites for backup offices (CYS & BYZ) 19 Locations sent to Internet for BYZ & CYS to download

Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Plan View – 500mb Height 3 hr Precipitation Boundary Layer Wind Surface Temp (image)

Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Time Height at Cody, WY – Wind Omega Relative Humidity (image) Helpful at TAF Locations in complex terrain

Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Cross Section– Soda Springs-> RIW->CPR Wind Potential Temp Condensation Pressure Deficit (image) Loop

Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: 3 hr Precipitation Comparison – RIW_WRF_NMMNAM12 EASTNMM4GFS40

Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids MaxT (2m) MaxT Bias Corrected

Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids MaxRH (2m) MinRH (2m) Thermal Belt

Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids Wind (avg: BL,10m ) Nam12 Wind (avg: BL,10m)

Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z- 03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow KRIW 0.5° Reflectivity Loop

Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z- 03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow KRIW 0.5° Velocity Loop

Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z-03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow RIW_WRF_NMM Z BL Wind Comp Refl. 3-hr Pcpn Loop THP 0230Z: WSW 21G40 MPH

Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z-03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow RIW_WRF_NMM Z BL Wind Comp Refl. 3-hr Pcpn NAM12 BL Wind Loop RIW 0250Z: NNW 20G33 KT PK WND 50 KT

Case Studies Jackson Hole KJAC Observations: Z 26004KT SCT055 BKN070 … Z 00000KT SCT070 BKN080 … Z 27004KT SKC … Z 00000KT SKC … Z 35005KT CLR … Z 00000KT CLR … Z 32003KT CLR Jackson Hole KJAC 1800 UTC TAF: KJAC Z 0918/ KT P6SM SCT015 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT040 BKN060 FM VRB05KT P6SM FEW060 FM KT P6SM SKC

Case Studies Jackson Hole August 9, 2009 NAM12 Surface Wind – 12Z cycle Loop

Case Studies Jackson Hole August 9, 2009 RIW WRF NMM Surface Wind – 18Z cycle Loop

Case Studies Downslope Windstorms near Clark, WY – December Clark’s Fork Canyon – looking West-Southwest from Clark Clark’s Fork Canyon – looking Northeast

Case Studies Downslope Windstorms near Clark, WY – December RIW_WRF_NMM 12-hr forecast at 0600 UTC Wind (barbs,contour) Windspeed (img) Pot Temp 110 MPH Gust observed at 0500

Summary RIW WFO forecasters have found a local high resolution model worthwhile to supplement operational NWS model data o Particularly helpful with surface winds, convective initiation, frontal boundaries, etc. o What does it gain over high resolution WRF runs at NCEP? Need to conduct more research to determine benefits of possible nesting to 1 & 2 km horizontal resolution How can more computing resources be gained? o Recently purchased a dual quad-core server…