Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Post Deyr 2006/07 Analysis & Outlook Situation Briefing for USAID/OFDA March 8, 2007 FEWS NET /Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Presentation Outline 1. Post Deyr 2006-’07 Assessment Timeline, Process, Methods, Partners 2. Review of Summary Results A. Sector Analysis: Climate Flood Civil Insecurity Agriculture Markets Livestock Nutrition B. Current Food & Livelihood Security Phase Classifications Spatial Identification – Map Populations Estimates - Table Phase Classification, Evidence Based Templates

FSAU Post Deyr ‘06-’07 Assessment Timeline, Process & Partners 1. Timeline Planning with Partners: Dec. 5, 2006 Regional Fieldwork & Analysis: Dec. 13, 2006 – Jan. 10, 2007 All Team Analysis: Jan , 2007 Release of Executive Results: Jan. 31, 2007 Release of the Technical Report: Feb 23, Process Partner Agriculture & Livestock Planning Meetings in NBI (Dec. 5 ) Regional Partner Planning Meeting in NW, NE, S, SE/SW (Dec ) Fieldwork (Dec. 13, 2006 – Jan. 3, 2007) Regional Analysis Workshops in NW & NE (Jan ) All Team Deyr Analysis Workshop: Hargeisa (Jan. 11 – Jan. 24) Technical Vetting Meeting with Partners (Jan. 29) Release of Summary Findings: FSRD Meeting (Jan. 31) Release of FSAU Technical Series Report Deyr 2006/07 Analysis (Feb. 23) 3. Partners (40) WFP, HAVOYOCO, SRCS, TFG, MoRD (SL), MoH&L (SL), MoL (SL), MoA (SL), NERAD, CARE, UNICEF, AFREC, ACF, WVI, SC-UK, OCHA, DRC, PENHA, Oxfam GB, Vetaid, CSIC, Horn Relief, MoLG (PL), MoALE (PL), HADMA (PL), SVO, Concern, MWMR (SL), SWA JCC, SDIO, SAF, MERCY, SADO, GREENHOPE, GAA, CCS, ASEP, MSFB, GHC, Muslim Aid

FSAU Post Deyr ’06-’07 Assessment Methods & Instruments 4.Methods & Instruments Rapid Field Assessment Methods: Individual Interviews, Focus Group Interviews, Key Informants, Triangulation, Field Observations Food & Livelihood Security Assessment Instruments: Crop Production Survey, Pastoral Survey, Nutrition Assessments, Market Price Survey, Flood Impact Survey, Conflict Monitoring Survey FSAU Generated Monitoring Data: Market Prices Data, Somali Livelihoods Indicator Monitoring System (SLIMS data), Sentinel Site Data, Monthly Food Security Field Reports Nutrition data sources: Nutrition Assessments, Rapid assessments (using MUAC), H- Facilities/ HIS, Sentinel Site Surveillance, Selective feeding centers, Dietary studies, & field observations Secondary Information: H-Facility Data, Satellite Imagery, Agency/NGO/UN Regional & Country Reports Integrated Analysis: Regional Post Deyr Assessment Reports, IPC Evidence Based Template, IPC Map and Population Tables

FSAU Post Deyr ’06/’07 Field Work Assessment Data Point Locations

A. Sector Analysis Summary Results

Awdal Sanag W. Galbeed Togdheer Sool Bari Nugal Mudug Galgadud Hiran Bakool Bay Gedo M.Juba M. Shabelle L. Shabelle L.Juba DJIBOUTI ETHIOPIA KENYA Gulf of Aden Indian Ocean Awdal Sanag W. Galbeed Togdheer Sool Bari Nugal Mudug Galgadud Hiran Bakool Bay Gedo M.Juba M. Shabelle L. Shabelle L.Juba DJIBOUTI ETHIOPIA KENYA Gulf of Aden Indian Ocean Cumulative Rainfall (mm), Oct-Dec, 2006Oct-Dec, ’06 as % of long term mean Climate Deyr 2006/07 Rainfall Performance

Climate Comparison of El Nino: Deyr ’06/’07 and Deyr ’97/98 (Cumulative Rainfall 2006 cf. 1997) RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 2006 RFE (mm) Oct-Dec, 1997

Climate Floods: Aerial View, Buale District, Middle Juba, Dec. ‘06

Climate Floods: Beletweyn, Hiran Region, Nov. ‘06

[1] [1] FSAU,FEWSNET, SWALIM & Flood Working Group analysis “Population Displacement Estimates-Deyr seasonal rains 2006” (Nov-Dec). Best Estimates based on triangulation of all Field Estimates from Field Reports, Interagency Flood Assessments and UNOSAT Radar Estimates [2] [2] Population estimates by region/district, UNDP Somalia, August 1, FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the official estimates provided by UNDP [3] [3] Displaced Population calculated by multiplying the number of hh’s by hh size of 6 [4] [4] All areas flooded refer to maize areas with exception of Hiran which is Sorghum area Summary Table of Flood Impact in Terms of Population Displacement (#) & Flooded Areas (ha) Riverine BasinRegion Preliminary Analysis Flood Displacement Best Estimates [1] [1] UNDP Total 2005 population [2] [2] Flood Displaced PopulationFlooded Areas # hh’s# people [3] [3] Displaced as % of total population Estimated % of displaced returned Flooded Deyr 06/07 Cropped area [4] [4] % Deyr 06/07 of Cropped area Flooded Shabelle Riverine 299,0001,695,36325,000150,0009%90%41,80040% Hiraan104,000329,81117,000102,00031%90%10,50046% Middle Shabelle159,000514,9016,00036,0007%90%8,50036% Lower Shabelle36,000850,6512,00012,0001%90%22,80040% Juba Riverine 155,500953,04517,500105,00011%86%11,33633% Gedo36,000328,3783,50021,0006%97%2,63626% Middle Juba102,000238,87710,00060,00025%90%4,40024% Lower Juba17,500385,7904,00024,0006%66%4,30070% Total 454,5002,648,40842,500255,00010%88%53,13638%

COF19: March. – May.2007 (Source: ICPAC)

Civil Insecurity Key Defining Issues: Impacts (Oct. to Dec. ’06) IMPACTS (GENERAL) IMPACTS ON FOOD, NUTRITION AND LIVELIHOOD SECURITY NOT AS GREAT AS MAY BE ANTICIPATED -Displacement, in general of short duration and short distance from urban to rural surrounding areas plus some of longer distance (for example, cross border to Kenya). Increased resource pressure on host communities -Limited disruption to seasonal agricultural and pastoral activities (flood recession planting, livestock migration) but some reduction in labour pool leading to disruption to weeding activities at a crucial period in the crop cycle -Disruption to market access compounding difficulties in access due to flooding -Official Kenya-Somalia border closure on 3rd January 2007 compounding trade and population movement -Dramatic shrinking of humanitarian space compounding existing access problems and RVF activities

INSECURITY: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (JANUARY – JUNE 2007) Until effective measures are in place there will be increasing localised insecurity (including banditry and roadblocks, tensions between clans including clan retaliation, resource based conflicts, insurgency, and a renewal of marine piracy) - Main areas of risk: Middle and Lower Juba, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud and south Mudug - Current areas of concern: Hiran and Central (Haradheere, Hobyo and Adaado; Maxaas); Juba (Badhadhe/Doblei, Beerhane); Middle Shabelle (Biyo-Cadde) POTENTIAL OUTCOMES INCLUDE: -Disruption of the movement of local cereals (and other commodities) within the country and across regional borders (for example, Ethiopia-Somalia) increasing market prices -Continuation of the Kenya-Somalia border closure disrupting cross-border trade and population movement -Restriction of livestock movement -Continuation of localised short-term displacement -Restriction of humanitarian space

Agriculture Deyr 2006/07 Cereal Production Estimates in Somalia Summary Conclusions Deyr ‘06/’07 Cereal production is roughly 111,000 Mt Which is 262% of Deyr ’05/’06 and 113% of Deyr PWA (1995 – 2005) Maize is 21% and Sorghum is 79% of the Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Production Regional Differences Four regions with poor crop production: 50% to 55% of PWA ( ) (Lower Juba 52%, L/Shabelle 55%, Gedo 50% and M/Shabelle 51%) Three regions with exceptional crop production: > PWA ( ) (Bakool 398%, Bay 228%, and Middle Juba 124%) Northwest crop Gu/Karan ‘06 exceptional crop production: (25,000 Mt or 147% of PWA )

Agriculture Deyr ’06/’07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates - Southern Somalia Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia Regions Deyr 2006 Production in MT Deyr 2006 as % of Deyr 2005 Deyr 2006 as % of Deyr PWA ( ) Deyr 2006 as % of Deyr PWA ( ) Deyr 2006 as % of Deyr PWA ( ) SorghumMaize Total Cereal Bakool4, , %398%403%306% Bay52,9759,87062,845888%228%224%192% Gedo2, ,708317%50%57%36% Hiran5,6001,0406,640544%94%92%81% Lower Juba %52%45%102% Lower Shabelle13,4207,42020,84082%55%53%46% Middle Juba4, %124%116%144% Middle Shabelle4,8501,6806,53089%51%47%39% Deyr 2006 Total89,04921,807110,856262%113%110%96%

Agriculture Gu/Karan ‘06 Cereal Crop Establishment Estimates, Northwest Gu/Karan Cereal Production Estimates in North West Somalia Regions Gu/Karan 2006 Production in MT Gu 2006 as % of Gu 2005 Gu 2006 as % of Gu PWA SorghumMaizeTotal Cereal Awdal3, ,57891%147% Galbeed17,6582,16319,821100%148% Togdheer %129% Gu - Karan ,9873,03325,02097%147%

SOMALIA: AGRICULTURE DEYR ‘06/’07 PRODUCTION AS PERCENT OF PWA ( ) BY DISTRICT

Exceptional Sorghum Crop, Wajid, Bakool Region, Dec. ‘06 Agriculture

Damaged Maize Crop, Burgan, Lower Juba Damaged Rainfed Maize, North Brava, Lower Shabelle

Agriculture Trend in Annual Cereal Production *Off Season cereal production estimate for both Gu and Deyr is not included (23,360MT)

Agriculture Trend in Regional Cereal Prices (US$)

Markets Trend in Exchange Rates SOSH and SLSH To US$ ( ) Monthly Exchange Rates- SOSH and SLSH to USD

Markets Imported Commodity Prices Juba Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange rate

Somalia: Livestock Migration Trends, Oct. – Dec. ‘06 Livestock

Livestock Water, Rangeland and Livestock Body Conditions RegionWater availabilityPasture condition Body conditionMigration pattern GedoVery good in all districts Very good for all species Normal migration within region Juba ValleyVery good in all districts Very good for all species Normal migration within region Bay/BakoolAverage to good in all districts Good in all districts Good for all speciesNormal migration within region Shabelle Valley Very good in all districts Very good for all species Normal migration within region HiranAverage in all districtsGood in all districts Average improving for all species Normal migration within region Galgaduud & south Mudug Average with localized pocket of poor Good in hinterland and average in coastal areas Average improving for all species Normal migration within region NortheastAverage with localized pockets of poor Very good in all districts Good for all speciesNormal migration within regions NorthwestGood in all districts with localized pockets of poor Very good in all districts Very good for all species Normal migration within region, but some pastorals migrated from Shinile of ZoneV Ethiopia to Guban (Seylac district), and abnormal from eastern Sanag to Nugal and western Sanag areas

Improved Pasture, Buale, Middle Juba, Dec ‘06 Livestock

Water Availability 1. Water catchment, Hudur, Bakool, Dec. ‘06 2. Water catchment, Bay, Dec. ‘06 3. Walaq, Wajid district, Bakool, Dec. ‘

Improving livestock body conditions: cattle, goats and sheep 1. Bansofi, Wajid, Bakool, Dec. ‘06 2. Bay, Dec. ’06 3. Northwest, Nov. ‘

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Trends in LS Holdings (Oct. 05 – Dec 06) Conception (Deyr ‘06) Calving/kidding (Deyr ‘06) Milk Production (Deyr ‘06) Expected Calving/Kidding Jan-June, ‘07 Gedo Cattle: unchanged (no calving) Camel: slight increase (some calving) Sheep/goats: slight increase (medium kidding) High for all species Camel: low Cattle: none to low Sheep/goats: medium Below average Camel : low calving in April-June07 due to low conception Gu06. Cattle : low calving in Feb-March07 due to low conception Gu06, high calving in Apr-May 07 due to high conception Jul-Sep06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in April-May07 due to high conception in Oct-Dec06 Juba Valley Cattle: unchanged (no calving) Camel: slight (some calving) Sheep/goats: medium increase (more kidding) Camel: medium to high Cattle: low (all to calve in Feb07) Sheep/goats: high to medium Camel: low Cattle: low to none Sheep/goats: medium to high Below average Camel: medium calving April-May07 due to medium conception Gu06 Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due to low conception in Gu06,but high calving in April-May ’07 due to high conception July-Sept ‘06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in Feb-March07 due to high conception July-Sep06 Bay/ Bakool Cattle: unchanged (no calving) Camel: slight increase Sheep/goats: slight increase High for all species Camel: low Cattle: none to low Sheep/goats: high Below average Camel: medium to high calving in April-May07 due to medium and high conception in Gu06 Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due low to medium conception in Gu6. Sheep/goats : high kidding April-May06 due to high conception Oct-Dec06

Region Trends in LS holdings (October 05 – Dec 06) Conception (Deyr 06) Calving/kidding (Deyr 06) Milk production (Deyr06) Expected calving/kidding Jan-June, 07 Shabelle Valley Cattle and sheep/goats: slight increase Camel: medium increase High for all species Cattle: low to medium Camel and goats: high Average Camel: medium calving in April- May07 due to medium conception Gu06 Cattle: medium calving in Feb- March07 due medium conception in Gu06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in April- May07 due to high conception in Oct-Dec06 Hiran Cattle: slight decrease (sell out high) Sheep/goats: slight increase Camel: slight decrease (unknown camel death) Camel: medium Cattle: medium Sheep/goats: high Camel: Low Cattle: Low Sheep/goats: medium to low Below average Camel: low calving in Apr-May07 due to low conception in Gu06 Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due low conception in Gu06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in April- May07 due high conception in Oct- Dec06 Galgaduud & South Mudug Camel: Unchanged (no calving) Cattle: unchanged (no calving) Sheep/goats: slight increase Camel: medium Cattle: high to medium Sheep/goats: medium to high Camel: low Cattle: low Sheep/goats: medium to low Below average Camel: Low calving in April-May07 due to low conception in Gu06 Cattle: low calving in Feb-March07 due to low conception in Gu06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in March-Apr07 due to high conception in Oct-Dec06 Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Trends in LS holdings (October 05 – Dec 06) Conception (Deyr 06) Calving/kidding (Deyr 06) Milk production (Deyr06) Expected calving/kidding Jan-June, 07 Northeast Camel: medium increase Sheep/goats: medium increase Camel: high Sheep/goats: high Camel: none to low Shoats: high to medium Good Camel: low calving Apr-May07 due to low conception in Gu06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in April-May07 due high conception in Oct-Dec06. Northwest Camel: medium increase Sheep/goats : medium increase Camel: High Sheep/goats: High Camel: none to low Shoats: high Good Camel: medium to low in Apr- May07 due to low conception in Gu06 Sheep/goats: high kidding in Apr-May07 due to high conception in Oct-Dec06 Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Livestock Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (US$)

Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices (US$) Livestock

Livestock Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat

Livestock Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

Livestock Export Trends: Berbera and Bossaso Ports (Pre & Post-War) Avg '95-'97Avg '03-'052006% Avg '95-'97% Avg '03-'05 Sheep/Goat3,169,2702,230,3512,794, Cattle113,718202,516190, Camel52,94521,64956, Total3,335,9332,454,5163,041, Livestock Livestock Export Trends from Berbera & Bossaso Pre- and Post War

Nutrition FSAU Nutrition Analyst measuring MUAC, Bay Region, Dec 06

Nutrition Key Indicators and Categorization Nutrition key indicators AlertSeriousCriticalVery Critical GAM (WHZ) from nutrition surveys 5-9.9% usual range and stable % % (or % where there has been a significant increase from seasonally adjusted previous surveys) >20% or ( % where there has been a significant increase from seasonally adjusted previous surveys) SAM (WHZ) from nutrition surveys <1.5%1.5-2%2-3%>3% CMR/10,000/day from nutrition surveys /10,000/day>2/10,000/day MUAC Screening – TBC (% <12.5cm) <5%5-9.9% %>15% Feeding Centre Data – adjusted on length of operation & coverage Low admissions and stable Low admissions but increasing in last 2 months (seasonally & coverage adjusted) Significant increasing admission - (seasonally & coverage adjusted) Significant increasing admissions – out of season HIS Nutrition TrendsLow numbers of acutely malnourished for area and stable (seasonally adjusted) Low numbers of acutely malnourished children from previous months but increasing in >2 rounds (seasonally adjusted) High levels and stable numbers of acutely malnourished children’s (seasonally adjusted) High with significant increasing numbers in >2 rounds of acutely malnourished children from screening Poor dietary diversity for population (<4 food groups) – assessments &SSS <5%5-9.9%10-25%>25%

Nutrition Key Indicators and Categorization Contd. Nutrition key indicators AlertSeriousCriticalVery Critical Meal Frequency: At least 5 x day (for <5yrs) >20%5-19.9%<5%<20% Sentinel Site Trend - levels of children identified as acutely malnourished from HC data low levels and one round indicating increase seasonally adjusted) Increasing levels to based on two rounds (seasonally adjusted) High levels of malnourished children and stable (seasonally adjusted) ( %) Increasing levels to with increasing trend Affected pop with access to formal/informal humanitarian assistance: feeding centres health centres, clean water etc Access to humanitarian interventions for most vulnerable Reduced access to humanitarian support for most vulnerable Limited access to humanitarian support for majority Negligible or no access Health: (seasonally adjusted) Frequency of cases of ARI, Suspected malaria, and diarrhoea Measles: Immunisation Coverage: (Measles & Vit A) Within expected seasonal norms 1 case <95% Seasonal increase in Suspected Malaria, ARI and Diarrhoea- contained 1 case <95% Seasonal increase – not contained, Epidemic Epidemic <95% Pandemic <95% Food Security Situation - current IPC status Chronically food secure Acute Food and Livelihoods Crisis HEFamine/ Humanitarian Catastrophe

Current Nutrition Situation Somalia NUTRITION SITUATION JANUARY 2007 NUTRITION SITUATION JULY 2006

B. Current Food & Livelihood Security Phase Classifications Summary Results

Somalia Food Security Phase Classification Post Deyr ’06/’07 Projection Jan - June ’07Post Gu ’06 Projection Jul ‘06 - Dec ’06

Table 1: Estimated Rural Population by Region in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), inclusive of the High Risk Groups. Affected RegionsUNDP 2005 Total Population [1] [1] Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) [2] [2] Humanitarian Emergency (HE) 2 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region population North [3] [3] Awdal305, Bari387, Nugaal125, Sanaag270, Sool150, Togdheer402, Woqooyi Galbeed700, Sub-Total2,341, Central Galgaduud330, Mudug350, Sub-Total680, South Bakool310,62780, Bay620,56210,00002 Gedo328,37890,000110,00061 Hiraan329,81110,000 6 Juba Lower385,79090,00040,00034 Middle Juba238,87780,00070,00063 Lower Shabelle850, Middle Shabelle514, Banadir901, Sub-Total4,480,780360,000230,00013 GRAND TOTAL7,502,654360,000230,0008 Table 1B: Summary Table 2 Assessed and Contingency Rural Population Numbers in AFLC and HE 590, Estimated Number of IDP’s [4] [4] 400,0005 Estimated Total Population in Crisis990,00014 [5] [5] [1] [1] Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, Note this only includes population figures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the official estimates provided by UNDP [2] [2] Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest five thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning [3] [3] Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 [4] [4] Source: UN-OCHA updated April 2004 (376,630) and UNHCR IDP map Dec.2005 (407,000), rounded to 400,000 as an estimate [5] [5] Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

Thank you

Gu ’06Deyr ’06/’07 AFLC & HE1.3590,000 HE425,000230,000 AFLC880,000360,000 AFLC declined - mostly due to NE/NW, Central, Bay improvements Juba/Gedo – same number but shift from HE to AFLC for Agro-pastoralist/Pastoralists Juba/Gedo/Hiran Riverine – worsening situation Summary of Change in Population Numbers in AFLC & HE (Gu ’06 vs Deyr ’06/’07

1. More Limited Spread than ’97 Outbreak 2. Direct Impact: “If “ occurs will be localized, not widespread 3. Indirect Impact: Minimal in the Short Term (Jan-June ’07) for Most Pastoral/Agro-pastoral Households  Deyr ‘06/’07 was a Mild El Niño, but El Niño 1997 was a Strong El Nino  1997 Deyr rains started earlier and finished late (continued in Jan & Feb.)  Amount of rainfall in Deyr ‘97 was significantly greater in amount  Duration, intensity, and extent of floods were much greater in 1997  Now pastoral areas are already drying up in Juba/Gedo (as rains stopped first dekad Dec.), which reduces the vector of spread  Currently very limited migration to/from Kenya and Somalia, but ‘97 Kenya livestock concentrated in Somalia  Good livestock conditions (from improvements in Gu ’06), as compared to 1997 when livestock conditions very poor (2 seasons of drought)  Currently, proactive mitigating actions by Kenya govt. (market & border closure, vaccination programs, etc.)  If livestock are infected it would be localized within pockets, not widespread throughout livestock population due to poor vector spread conditions (see 1)  Direct impact on pastoralists/agro pastoralist with RVF infected livestock could be great, but primarily prolong recovery,: o prolong recovery time of livestock herds (loss in drought) o Low livestock mortality of infected livestock (10%) o High rates of abortion (80-90%) o Abortion Risk Sheep/Goats in Juba/Gedo: Expect high kidding in Jan.-March ‘06, due to high conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct. ’06) o Abortion Risk for Cattle in Juba/Gedo: Expect Low calving Jan.-March ’07, due to low conception in Gu’06. High conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct., but high calving not until May/June ’07)  Decrease in ability to sell livestock  Decrease in productivity (milk, ghee)  High cost veterinary treatment  Stress ↑ social networks  Closure of Kenya Cattle Markets (Impact for Juba/Gedo Pastoralists): Minimal Impact in Short Term o Currently, pastoralists & agro- pastoralists are retaining cattle for restocking: & breeding, high cattle conception in Hagaa (Sept.-Oct ’06) o Mild Jilaal, low to no cost for water, fodder migration (limited need to sell cattle) o Normally, sell sheep/goat for cereals, not cattle  Limited impact on local markets and demand for camels and sheep/goats o Functional livestock markets/demand (Afgoi, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismayo, and others) o Sheep/Goats, generally sold within Southern Somalia (for food/& nonfood essentials) o Terms of Trade (sheep/goat to cereals) is significantly improved, and is expected to remain favorable over next few months.  Resilience of Somali Trade and Markets Proven o Livestock Ban ’98 & 2000 by Gulf States o Likely, that trade of Somali cattle through Mombasa will increase if Kenya NE markets remain closed

Livestock Unknown Camel Disease Tieglow, Jan. ‘07Hiran, Dec. ‘06

Regions Districts, & Livelihood Zones Affected Phase (HE, AFLC or CFI) General Characteristics International Standards Key Evidence Indicator Key Evidence Source; Evidence Reliability Score: (1=very reliable, 2=somewhat reliable 3=unconfirmed) HIRAN (Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi) Livelihood Zones: Riverine HECrude Mortality rate Acute malnutrition Diseases Dietary diversity Food access/Availability Water access availability Destitution and displacement Coping Livelihood assets  No recent mortality survey data from nutrition surveys but no abnormal mortality rates being reported from health centres, except from areas reporting AWD (acute watery diarrhea) outbreaks in 6 villages north of Belet Weyn and parts of Belet Weyn town, with 20 deaths reported, 12 of which in children under 5yrs due to AWD in January 07. (Source: UNICEF, Jan 07) (R=2)  Serious (10-15%) with risk of deterioration in flood affected/AWD outbreak areas (Source: FSAU Nutrition Analysis Workshop, Jan 07).  Serious: Epidemic Increased seasonal malaria and diarrhea due to floods. AWD outbreak in 3 villages north of Belet Weyne (UNICEF, Jan 07).  Food sources (own production): Estimated total cereal production for Hiran (riverine and agropastoral) 6,640mt (94% of PWA, ). However, estimated that 85% of Deyr season riverine sorghum and maize production has been lost due to flooding (NOTE: in Hiran, the Deyr season is considered the main agricultural season) (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Crop Assessment; R=1). Lack of or limited food stocks for poor households before the floods due to successive crop failure in Hiran (Gu ‘05 7% of PWA; Deyr ‘05/06 3% PWA; Gu ’06 30% PWA) (Source: FSAU Technical Series V:9; R=1). Estimated off season production: maize 2,400mt from 6,000ha; sesame 1,200mt from 6,000ha; cowpea 200mt from 2,000ha (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06 /’07 Flood Impact Assessment; R=2) but with high risk of loss due to pests, seasonal overlap with potential Gu season flooding Food Sources (other sources): Estimated that for poor households that there is increasing reliance (from September 2006 onwards) on food aid though this is not quantified (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=2) (NOTE: see Dietary Diversity) Market Purchase: Although the price of sorghum has reduced from an all time high in June ’06 (SSh4,150/kg) the price in November ’06 remains higher than at any other time in the previous 6 years (SSh3,000/kg) due to limited cereal in the markets from successive seasons of below PWA local production (Source: FSAU Market Update – Jan’06; R=1). Currently, (January ’07) locally produced red sorghum (from Bay and Bakool) and yellow maize are not available in Belet Weyn. Cereal prices are not expected to increase dramatically over the next 4 months as the expected cereal (red sorghum) Deyr season supply from Bay and Bakool (228% & 398% of PWA respectively) will lead to an anticipated decline in prices from February ’07 onwards (Source: FSAU post- Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=1) Income Sources: Flooding reduced agricultural employment opportunities for poor households due to the destruction of standing Deyr crops. (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=1). Though expected that agricultural opportunities will increase over the next 3 months in line with flood recession planting (for cereal crops (maize and sesame) and vegetable crops (onion, tomato, and peppers) (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=1). Income for poor households from sales of fodder (grass) is increasing though December 2006 prices are low compared to Gu 2006 (SSh200/bundle cf SSh500/bundle) (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=1) Destruction of latrines and shallow wells and contamination of water sources in riverine area due to flooding (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=2) No targeted destruction of agricultural or pastoral productive assets, though deaths and an unknown number of injuries reported (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Insecurity Monitoring; FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=2) Hazards: Unreliability of off-season crops due to seasonal overlap (and potential for flooding) and pests; Insecurity in the region leading to restrictions in market access; Insecurity leading to restriction in cereal flows from Bay and Bakool; Decline in labour opportunities for poor households; AWD becoming pandemic Seasonal rainfall: Most of Hiran received mm RFE cumulative rainfall between Oct. to Dec. ’06, which is % of long term average, with some areas of the northwest receiving % (Source: FSAU Climate Update, January 2007; data from NOAA/USGS). Magnitude: Above normal (between % LTM) and significantly above normal (>300%). Rain gauge: total 277mm Belet Weyn town (Sep.-Dec.); 340mm Bulo Burti town (Oct.-Dec.); Jalalaqsi 400mm (Oct.-Dec.). Physical Capital: inundation of an estimated 30,000ha of which 50% was under crop before the floods (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Flood Impact Assessment; R=2) Financial Capital: Indebtedness: Average level of debt for poor households has increased from Gu ’06 to Deyr ‘06/’07 due to increased expenditure on agricultural inputs and food purchase both staple and non-staple. The trend is expected to continue up to the next Gu harvest (Source: FSAU post-Deyr ‘06/’07 Assessment; R=2) Step 1 - Evidence Based Template: HIRAN

Regions Districts, & Livelihood Zones Affected Phase (HE, AFLC or CFI) General Characteristics International Standards Key Evidence Indicator Key Evidence Source; Evidence Reliability Score: (1=very reliable, 2=somewhat reliable 3=unconfirmed) GEDO (Bardera, Garboharey, Luq and Dolo) RIVERINE HECrude Mortality rate Acute malnutrition Diseases Dietary diversity Food access/Availability Water access availability Destitution and displacement Coping Livelihood assets  CMR: 1.04/10,000/person/day & U5 Mortality: 2.46/10,000/day (Source: FSAU, Nutrition Assessment, March 06, R=1)  Critical and stable nutrition situation( %) (Source: FSAU. Nutrition Analysis Workshop, Jan 07 ). Feeding centre admissions: TFC admissions indicating increasing admissions of severely malnourished children in Luuq and Belet Hawa in November and December though as new center in Belet Hawa, therefore increases in admissions expected independent of food security situation. Dollo admissions show slight reduction from November to December. (Source: GHC, Feeding Centre Statistics, December 06, R=2). Mandera TFC data shows low but increasing admissions of severely malnourished children, none from Gedo in last 3 months, normally cases from Gedo are admitted. (Source, AAH feeding centre statistics, December 07, R=2).  Seasonal increases in water-borne diseases including diarrhea and malaria exacerbated by flooding and contaminated water sources. (Source: FSAU, December 06, R=2)  Food sources (own production - riverine): No own-home cereal production in Deyr ‘6/7 in all Riverine areas due to flooding – (Note – Total cereal production of Deyr’06/7 for Gedo is 50% of PWA, which is rain-fed production only). No cereal stock at HH level due to three consecutive poor crop production seasons (Gu’06 67%, Deyr’05/6 14%, Gu’05 7% of PWA). Expected some off-season maize crop production in March-June’07; planted in Dec.06, Jan-Feb.’07 and anticipated harvest in March/April’07 (Sources: FSAU Off-season Crop production - Post-Deyr’06 Crop assessment: R=1)  Market Purchase: Cereal is available in markets and will continue to be available until June ’06 due to: bumper harvest in Bay & Bakool (228% & 398% of Deyr PWA in Bay & Bakool respectively) and average production for Bardera, Bulahawa & Garboharey (91%, 113% & 86% of Deyr PWA); Expected off-season maize crop (496 MT) in March-May’07 in Gedo. Cereal prices have declined from peak drought prices, are not expected to increase dramatically over the next 4 months. Prices (Dec.’06) are 63% of what they were on May ’06 prices but Deyr ’06 price is the same as that of Deyr ’05. Purchasing power is higher in December ’06 higher than December ’05 and is expected to increase over the next 5 months with increased labour demand (off-season labour opportunities). The TOT between cereal and labour in December ’06 is 173% of Dec.’05 – declined 42% from October to December ’06 due to low labour opportunities because of flooding. (Sources: FSAU Post_Deyr’06/7 Crop assessment: R=1; Market Update – Jan. ’06: R=1)  Market Non-Cereal Purchase: Non-staple food prices increased from Aug. to Dec. ‘06 due to low supplies caused by increasing fuel prices and disruption of transport and commodity flow by Deyr rains (Oct.– Nov ’06). Sugar, vegetable oil and diesel increased by 19%, 50% and 12% respectively between Aug. and Dec. ’06. (Source: FSAU Market Update, Jan. ’07 edition; R=1)  Income sources: Loss of Deyr ‘06/7 crop sales (0 production) to floods. Expected off-season maize crop sales (estimated production of 496 Mt) harvest and sales between March and June ’07. Expected off-season cash crops (sesame 52 Mt and cowpea 5 Mt), harvest and sale expected between March and June ’07, mainly benefiting middle and better-off HH. Loss of Deyr ‘06/7 seasonal labour from Oct. to Dec. 06 (weeding, harvesting, etc. due to flooding. Increased labour opportunities (especially for the poor) due to increased labour demand for off-season agricultural activities between January and May ‘07. Maize labour activities include planting weeding & harvesting and sesame is high labour demand activities of uprooting, piling threshing, packing, transporting and guards. (Sources: FSAU Post-Deyr’07 Crop Assessment: R=2)  Natural capital: Most of the region received rainfall of mm, while Dolo and Luq Districts received between mm, and parts of Garbaharey and Bardera between 400 and 5000mm. All regions received rainfall between % of Long Term Mean Pasture and browse are significantly above normal and well distributed throughout the region. Satellite imagery NDVI for last decade of December 2006 are significantly above long term trends or 167% of average NDVI for 1996-’05. Loss of top soil and erosion due to flooding and excessive and high quantities of rainfall. Contaminated shallow wells, rivers and underground water tables (Sources: FSAU & Partner Deyr’06-07 Field Assessment, December’06; R=1; FSAU Climate Update, January 2007; data from NOAA/USGS; data from MARS/JRC).  Physical capital: Destruction and damage to river embankments, canals, irrigation infrastructure, roads and bridges, and personal assets (houses, water pumps, etc.) due to floods and heavy rains (FSAU Deyr’06-07 Field Assessment, December’06; R=2)  Financial capital: No cereal crop stocks due to 3 seasons of crop failure (Deyr’06/7, Deyr, ‘05/6 and Gu ’05 (all less than 15% of PWA) for Riverine communities. And below normal crop production for Gu’06 (67% of Gu PWA) (Source: FSAU Deyr’06-07 Field Assessment, December’06; R=2) Step 1 - Evidence Based Template: GEDO

Regions Districts, & Livelihood Zones Affected Phase (HE, AFLC or CFI) General Characteristics International Standards Key Evidence Indicator Key Evidence Source; Evidence Reliability Score: (1=very reliable, 2=somewhat reliable 3=unconfirmed) BAY Bay Bakool Agropastoral: High potential sorghum, cattle, camel Southern Agropastoral: shoats, cattle, camel South East Agropastoral: Cattle, sheep and goats Southern Inland Pastoral: Camel, sheep and goats CFI (BBA, SIP) AFLC (SAP) Crude Mortality rate Acute malnutrition Diseases Dietary diversity Food access/Availability Water access availability Destitution and displacement Coping Livelihood assets  Alert levels. Most recent assessment reported CMR of 1.28/10,000/day indicating alert levels (Source: FSAU led interagency assessment, Berdalle, Sept 06, R=1)  Critical nutrition situation which has indicated improvement from GU 06 and likely to continue to improve (15-20%). Rates of acutely malnourished (MUAC <12.5cm) children identified through rapid screening in December % with 26% at risk ( ) in Baidoa. Berdalle indicates rates of 6% acutely malnourished children with 27% at risk of malnutrition, though GAM rates <10% high proportion of at risk indicates concern. In addition due to insecurity many areas not accessed so unsure of situation in Dinsoor. (Source: FSAU Rapid MUAC Assessment – Dec. ’06 R=2)  Seasonal increases in diarrhoea and malaria as expected.  Food sources (own production - agropastoral): Deyr ’06/7 production is 228% of Deyr PWA. Early access (in Nov-Dec) to green crops, such as maize and beans). Cereal stocks are available from carry-over stocks from Gu ’06 crop production (i.e. 98% of Gu PWA) with the exception of the poor due to repayment of high debts incurred because of poor/loss of crops in the preceding two cropping seasons (Source: FSAUPost-Deyr06/7 Crop Assessment: R=1)  Food sources (own production – SEP): Due to inadequate recovery from cattle losses of 15 to 25%) in jilaal’06 and very low conception in Deyr’05 and low conception in Gu ’06, but some but few cattle calving is expected Jilaal (Feb-March’06) and average to high calving in Gu ’07 (May-June ‘06). Cattle pastoralists have no or little milk for consumption due to high cattle loss (-15 to -25%) in jilaal’06 and very low conception in Deyr’05 and Jilaal ‘06; but some but few cattle calving is expected Jilaal (Feb-March’06 and average to high calving in Gu ’07 (May-June); (FSAU Post-Deyr’06 Pastoral survey + key informant account: R=1).  Market Purchase: cereals are available in markets and supply will remain ok due to the expected bumper harvest in Bay region. Sorghum price (Baidoa market) fell by 30% between May to Sep. ’06 and will continue to go down over the next six months due to expected bumper harvest in Bay region. Low cereal prices and rising livestock prices as well as high labour (agricultural) opportunities since Sep. ’06 favourably boasted the Terms of Trade between cereal and livestock and between cereal and labour. (Source: FSAU Post-Gu ‘06/7 Assessment: R=1; FSAU Market Update – Jan.06; R=1 )  Income Sources (Agro-pastoralists): Agro-pastoralists will have good income from crop sales and cash crop sales (sesame, beans and ground-nuts) due to the good crop prospects in Bay region: Deyr ’06 estimated 228% of Deyr PWA. Poor agro-pastoralists have access to high agricultural labour demand from expected high crop production in Bay region; (Source: FSAU Post-Dey’06/7 Crop survey: R=1)  Income Sources (Pastoralists): Livestock prices increased well after (all species) in markets due to high livestock demand. (Source: FSAU Post-Dey’06/7 Pastoral survey: R=1)  Short term displacement from Daynuunay and Idaale area (ICU & TFG fighting); limited asset destruction; 80% immediate return of the displaced. Improved security in Jan.07; end of ICU & TFG fighting: situation returning back to normal. (Source: FSAU Post- Deyr’06/7 key informant interviews; R=2)  Natural Capital (Water and rangelands): Southern part of Bakool received between mm, while the northern part of Bakool received mm. Rains were % of long term average for Wajid and parts of Hudur, and between % for the rest of region. Most of Bay received mm RFE cumulative rainfall between Oct. to December 2006, which is % of Long Term Average (Source: FSAU Climate Update, January 2007; data from NOAA/USGS). Rangeland Conditions: Pasture and browse are significantly above normal and well distributed throughout the region, as confirmed by both satellite imagery (NDVI) and ground truth by FSAU field assessments. Satellite imagery NDVI for last decade of December 2006 are significantly above long term trends or 180% for Bakool and 120% for Bay of the average NDVI for 1996-’05 (Source: FSAU Climate Update, January 2007, data from MARS/JRC). Increased availability and access to water for all livelihoods due to the good seasonal performance of Deyr ’06 rainfall. (Source: FSAU Post-Deyr ‘06/7 Assessment: R=1)  Financial Capital (agro-pastoralists): Poor agro-pastoralists will have opportunities of crop sales due to expected bumper harvest in Deyr ‘06/7; are benefiting from high agro-labour opportunities; are still indebted but repaid significant part of a large debt incurred in the drought period between Gu’05 – Gu’06 through Gu’06 crop products. (Source: FSAU Post-Deyr ’06 Assessment; R=1)  Financial Capital (agro-pastoralists): Pastoralists (Southeast cattle Agro-pastoral): Less cattle for sale due to high livestock losses (-15 to -25%) in the Deyr ’05 and following Jilaal of ’06. Limited and lack income from milk sales due to low livestock conception in the drought period between Deyr’05 and Jilaal ’06 drought. Potential access of the poor households to crop and livestock Zeka in Jan/Feb. ’06 from Agro-pastoral and Pastoral Livelihoods (Source: FSAU Post-Deyr ‘06/7 Assessment: R=1) Step 1 - Evidence Based Template: BAY

Most Likely Scenario: January – June 2007 RVF and Impact on Food Security in Southern Somalia Comparison to 1997 RVF Outbreak: Not as severe as 1997 RVF outbreak in terms of spread Direct Impact (Livestock Mortality & Abortions): Localized within pockets if there is an outbreak – no confirmed reports yet. Indirect Impact (Loss of Markets): In Short-term Low impact in terms of Kenya cattle market closure  Overall Impact on Southern Somalia Pastoral & Agro-Pastoral Livelihoods: Low (Jan.-June ’07) Early Warning Level: Moderate Risk/Watch) Livestock Most Likely Scenario: Jan. - June ’07

Reports of unknown camel disease: coming in from Ethiopia, spreading to Somalia. Camel disease: Affecting camels only, no observable symptoms, followed by sudden collapse and death. Rough estimate of 10-20% mortality within herd Areas of reported cases include: Bay/Bakool, Hiran, central, Shebelle, Northeast and Northwest Number of cases: Disperse not affecting all pastoral households Impact on pastoralists: ‘Watch’ Early Warning Level on IPC Map. To date disease is disperse affecting only a small number of pastoralists. Action: Requires research on Ethiopia side to determine vector of spread and close monitoring within Somalia. Livestock Reported Unknown Camel Disease

Food Security Analysis Unit, Somalia FEWS NET /Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION FSAU: Food Security Analysis System – Conceptual, Analytical and Operational Elements of how FSAU Analyzes Food Security with a Livelihoods Framework FSAU: Structure and Organization

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia FSAU Products Technical Series Reports - seasonal assessment analysis and applied research or technical reports Quarterly Food Security & Nutrition Briefs Monthly Climate, Market, and Nutrition Updates Press Releases – Breaking news for media Monthly Website Updates (Sector and Regional Analysis) Livelihoods Baseline Profiles and Data Nutrition Studies – dietary diversity, micro-nutrients Somali Language FSAU Documents – FSNB, Press Releases, & others Various data sets - market, agriculture, livestock, nutrition, SLIMS, climate) Digital Library (DILI) – more than 4,000 publications related to Somalia food security, livelihoods and nutrition. Others: FSAU Website, Resource Center, FEWS NET /Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION

GHA Climate Outlook Scenarios (March. – May.07?) Based on ICPAC and Non-Climatic Factors (USGS/FEWS NET)

Significance of the Long-Rains (March – May) (Source: USGS/FEWS NET)