Obstacles to Problem Solving Hindsight Bias: after an event occurs, believing you knew the event would take place prior to it happening –The “I knew it all along” phenomenon –Monday Morning Quarterbacking Sports fans criticize coaching decisions after they see how those decisions have already played out. If you claim you “knew the ending” to The Sixth Sense before it happened, you’re probably committing hindsight bias.

Confirmation Bias: looking for evidence to prove your belief true –Once we make up our mind about something, we only “look” for evidence that proves us right. –This is sometimes a step during the self-fulfilling prophecy! –People typically watch news stations “slanted” to their view. Obstacles to Problem Solving When he’s participating in class, I notice and re-affirm my belief. When he’s skipping class for Park’s, I tend to overlook it because it doesn’t confirm my belief. I form a belief that student A is a wonderful student.

Fixation: unable to see an issue from a different point of view Obstacles to Problem Solving Mental Set: solving issues by using the same strategies from the past –Usually helpful, but not always. –In high school I could ace exams without studying, but when I got to college it stopped working. Functional Fixedness: only viewing items being useful for their typical purpose –One day I brought a coke to school, but didn’t have a bottle opener. The coke sat unopened all day even though a screwdriver, belt buckle, scissors, and staple remover were all available.

Obstacles to Problem Solving Framing: the way an issue is worded can change how people respond to it –Do you have more confidence in a drug that has a 90% survival rate or a 10% death rate? –Are you more likely to purchase meat labeled as “80 percent lean” or “20 percent fat”? –Which sounds better: “I haven’t gained any weight this year!” or “I haven’t lost any weight this year!” –When it comes to long-distance relationships, is it... “absence makes the heart grow fonder” or “out of sight, out of mind”?

Obstacles to Problem Solving Belief Perseverance: continuing to believe something even after it has been proven wrong –You form a belief, are shown evidence to disprove it, but continue believing it anyway. You continue to believe global warming isn’t happening or going to affect you even though is has scientifically been proven You keep expecting Santa to bring you presents on Christmas even though you’re 30 years old.

Obstacles to Problem Solving Overconfidence: being more certain than correct –82% of U.S. drivers consider themselves to be in the top 30% of their group in terms of driving safety. –81% of all new business owners felt they had an excellent chance of their businesses succeeding. When asked about the success of their peers, the answer was only 39%. “The ship that can’t be sunk”

Obstacles to Problem Solving Overconfidence Quiz –Answer each of the following questions with a RANGE in which you are 90% confident the answer is in. 1.How old was Michael Jackson when he died? 2.What is the size of Wisconsin (in square miles)? 3.How many countries are in North America? 4.How many books are in the Old Testament? 5.How many points did Michael Jordan score in his career? 6.How much does the average ant weigh (in milligrams)? 7.What year was Mahatma Gandhi born? 8.What is the gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days)? 9.What is the air distance from Miami to Paris (in miles)? 10.How much did the heaviest man in history weigh (in pounds)? –Since you answered each question with 90% confidence, you should have scored 9 correct on the quiz. If you scored less, you were overconfident!!! 50 65, , ,400

North America, the planet’s 3 rd largest continent, includes (23) counrtries and dozens of possessions and territories. It contains all Caribbean and Central America countries, Bermuda, Canada, Mexico, the United States, as well as Greenland

Obstacles to Problem Solving Barnum Effect: believing very vague descriptions personally apply to you –If you believe your horoscope on the previous slide fit you, you fell victim to this (I swapped the horoscopes). This effect is named after P.T. Barnum, a master showman who once declared, “There’s a sucker born every minute.”

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic: making predictions on the occurrence of things based on how closely they match your prototypes –Remember heuristics are quick but can be wrong at times –Basically you make a decision based on your stereotypes Which coin flip sequence is more likely: HTHTHT –or– HHHHHH? Are these people more likely to be models or accountants? We think of the first coin flip combination being more likely because it’s closer to 50%, but each of those exact sequences have an equal chance of occurring. There are 1.3 million accountants in the United States but only 5,000 models. Statistically, they are much more likely to be accountants.

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death –How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in your mind? –Which do you think causes more deaths per year? Asthma Attacks?Electrocution? 920 per year500 per year

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death –How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in your mind? –Which do you think causes more deaths per year? Murder?Diabetes? 9,200 per year19,000 per year

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death –How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in your mind? –Which do you think causes more deaths per year? Appendicitis?Lightning Strike? 440 per year52 per year

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death –How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in your mind? –Which do you think causes more deaths per year? Car Accident?Breast Cancer? 27,000 per year39,620 per year

Using and Misusing Heuristics Representativeness Heuristic Involving Death –How well do certain events match the stereotype of “death” in your mind? –Which do you think causes more deaths per year? Drowning?Lung Cancer? 3,600 per year160,340 per year

Were you afraid to fly after 9/11? Using and Misusing Heuristics Availability Heuristic: making predictions on the occurrence of things based on how easily they are available in your memory –If instances come to mind, we presume such instances are common. After hearing about a lottery winner on TV, people overestimate their own chances of winning. Did you feel unsafe at school after hearing about the Columbine shooting?

Using and Misusing Heuristics Availability Heuristic Example 1.Pick a number between 1 and 9. 2.Subtract 5. 3.Multiply by 3. 4.Square the number (multiply by itself). 5.Add the digits until you only get one digit (for example, if your number is 23, take 2+3 to get 5). 6.If your number is less than five, add 5; otherwise, subtract 4. 7.Multiply by 2. 8.Subtract 6. 9.Map the digit to an alphabet letter (1=A, 2=B, etc.) 10.Pick a country that begins with that letter. 11.Take the second letter in that country name and think of a mammal that begins with that letter. 12.Think of the color of that mammal. Do you have a grey elephant from Denmark?