P RESENTED BY : N. B ARRY L YON C ONSULTANTS L TD. County of Grey Housing Study Workshop #1

A GENDA 1)Introduction 2)OPA # 80 & Housing Study 3)Broad Trends Impacting Grey County 4)Housing Market 5)Social Housing 6)Emerging Issues 7)Questions

I NTRODUCTION Why are we here? Introduce ourselves; Provide a background on the study; Provide our take on preliminary issues and needs; and, Most importantly, get feedback and identify any gaps. Idea is to develop a common understanding of the base information and issues.

O FFICIAL P LAN A MENDMENT # 80 Adopted by County Council March Subsection – 1.7 Growth Management Growth projections Settlement Area Targets Intensification Targets New subsection Housing Policies Primarily outlines housing goals Needs greater strength & direction The County and/or local municipalities may undertake a housing study in order to develop a comprehensive strategy to deal effectively with affordable housing.

C OUNTY OF G REY H OUSING S TUDY Objectives & Intent : Identify a housing profile for the County; Evaluate the full continuum of housing needs within the County; Identify any current and/or anticipated gaps or shortfalls in meeting these needs; and, Recommend policies and programs for addressing identified issues and concerns.

B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY Population

Older Population B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY

Population Will Continue to Age B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY

Declining Younger Age Groups B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY

Housing Household Growth inline with Population Growth –1,850 units between County averages about building permits a year Majority of recent household growth in TBM, Meaford, Owen Sound Average Household Size = 2.49 (2.52 in 2001). Lowest in TBM and Owen 2.32, highest in Some local municipalities have large amounts of non- permanent housing: TBM, Grey Highlands, Georgian Bluffs and Meaford.

B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY Existing Housing Stock

B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY Rental vs. Ownership

B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY Income

Forecast Growth B ROAD T RENDS I MPACTING G REY C OUNTY

H OUSING M ARKET Active Market Dominated by TBM. Prices range from $275,000 (apartment) to $1.5 million (single detached). Active projects outside of TBM include: Gates of Kent (Meaford) – low $200,000 Beaver Valley Woodlands (Grey Highlands) - $400,000 Dundalk Homes (Southgate) – low to mid $200,000 Cobble Beach (Georgian Bluffs) – low $300,000 to $500,000+ Almost entirely single-detached units outside of TBM Buyers are generally older “empty nesters” & “retirees” from Southern Ontario, as well as seasonal buyers.

H OUSING M ARKET Resale Market

H OUSING M ARKET Estimated Housing Value – Census 2006

H OUSING M ARKET Rental Market Rental rates for 1 bedroom range: $400-$500 Durham $600 - $650 Owen Sound & Hanover $625 - $675 Meaford $ Town of The Blue Mountains

S OCIAL H OUSING Social Housing Supply Compared to Other Areas

S OCIAL H OUSING Social Housing Supply

S OCIAL H OUSING Existing Demand: Current Waiting List in County – 741 units Average annual move ins (turnover) – 193 units Estimated time to meet demand with no new applications – 3.8 years Average annual new applications – 633 units Hypothetically, 440 added to waiting list each year (633 minus 193). Much less however, as many applications are deactivated, do not meet criteria, etc.

S OCIAL H OUSING Forecast Demand

E MERGING I SSUES Typically Housing Issues can be Separated into 3 Categories: 1.Social Housing – Supply vs. Demand – Location – Unit Types – Condition of units – Special Needs 2.Affordable (defined by Province). Typically a problem when incomes and housing prices are not in line, usually due to a market abnormality(s). – Rental vs. Ownership – Locational differences – How deep is the affordability issue – Existing or Future issue. 3.Others. Usually related to first two and often tied to goals/policy of municipality’s (seniors, young families, etc).

E MERGING I SSUES Social Housing 1.Demand far outweighs supply, especially considering turn-over rate and new applications. 2.Certain areas appear to have more pronounced shortage, including: Chatsworth Durham (West Grey) Flesherton (Grey Highlands) Markdale (Grey Highlands) Hanover 3.Family Units are limited only to certain areas, waiting list in some of these areas is very high (Hanover). 4.Social housing supply is aging, difficulty in maintaining current standards, especially while also meeting increased demand. 5.Limited special needs housing, especially outside of Owen Sound.

E MERGING I SSUES Affordable Housing 1.Not all municipalities have, or are expected to have, affordability issue (income vs. housing prices/rents): Existing: Town of The Blue Mountains. Emerging: Meaford, Southgate, Grey Highlands 2.Affordable ownership more constrained than affordable rental 3.Many municipalities do not have typical affordability issue in that housing prices are too high, but rather just a lack of supply of affordable units in general, as a result of: servicing constraints; floodplain constraints; planning regulations; and, lack of developer interest, especially for smaller unit types.

E MERGING I SSUES Other 1.Current and future lack of suitable seniors housing supply, including: Market rate and subsidized/non-for-profit housing; Retirement homes, assisted living and long-term care housing; and, Housing close to services, including public transit. 2.Some Municipalities have limited, quality rental stock. 3.Need to increase range & choice of housing types. 4.Need to provide housing that is attractive and affordable to younger individuals and families. 5.Need for additional Student housing in Owen Sound. 6.Limited supply of rural homes in certain municipalities (West Grey) 7.Servicing Constraints - Georgian Bluffs & Chatsworth.

Q UESTIONS Any other housing issues or needs? What is currently causing existing housing needs? What are the key housing policies/goals the County should tackle? What can the County and local Municipalities do to increase supply of social housing? What role should the County play in the provision of affordable housing? Set affordable housing targets? Assist in the funding/admin of certain programs? Is it mostly a local issue?