Downscaling the Effects of Global Change on the Coastal Transition Zone of Western Iberian Peninsula Jesús Dubert, Ana Pires, Rita Nolasco, Alfredo Rocha.

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Presentation transcript:

Downscaling the Effects of Global Change on the Coastal Transition Zone of Western Iberian Peninsula Jesús Dubert, Ana Pires, Rita Nolasco, Alfredo Rocha CESAM – Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar Universidade de Aveiro

Main Goal: Contribute for understanding the variability of the IUE (Iberian Upwelling Ecosystem) for future scenarios of Global change, comparing with present state. Main features: - North boundary of the Iberian-Canary Upwelling System - Summer: Açores anticyclone -> Northerly winds-> upwelling - Winter: Poleward current

Ocean Model: ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System Large domain - 1/5º resolutiom, 30 vertical levels - Intermediate domain -1/10º resolution, 30 vertical levels Small domain, Western Iberian Margin - 1/27º resolution, 60 vertical levels Surface Forcing for Present: COADS (Comprehensive ocean atmosphere data set), Initial and boundary conditions: Climatology WOA ( World Ocean Atlas, Levitus 2001)

Climate models IPCC for future - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model version 3 (CGCM3) spatial resolution 3.75º for atmosphere and 1.85º for ocean - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model version 3 (CNRM-CM3); spatial resolution 2.8º for atmosphere and 2º for ocean - Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (CCSR), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) et le Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC). spatial resolution 2.8º for atmosphere and 1.4º for ocean Scenario IPCC: A2 Future Climatology? Future Climatology= COADS present + (MIROC future – MIROC présent) Advantage: avoid systematic bias of the model. Present: COADS (Comprehensive ocean atmosphere data set), Levitus, World Ocean Atlas (WOA)

Surface: Temperature and Velocity– Smal Domaine january april august november january august Future Présent - General inclrease of temperture field - Upwelling along the (four) seasons - No Poleward flow! - Increase of equatorward coastal flow.

Surface: Salinité – Small Domain Future Présent janvier avril août novembre -strong decrease in salinity field (~ 1 unit) - Disparison of Poleward flow along the western margin.

Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST MIROC MODEL BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

-A FUTURE SCENARIO OF OCEAN CIRCULATION AND WATER MASSES FOR THE IBERIAN MARGIN : - Surface increase of temperature in the surface layer, and decrease of salinity (~1 unit ) - Upwelling along the seasons, and increase equatorward flow. - Vanishement of Poleward flow.

Upwelling/Poleward Current System – Small Domain - Decrease of salinity for central waters (Surface-700m) - Permanent Upwelling in the future - Disparison of Poleward flow during winter. Present, 38ºN, Aug Future, 38ºN, Aug Present, 42ºN, Jan Future, 42ºN, Jan UpwellingIncreased Upwelling Poleward No Poleward Winter Upwelling!

Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST CGCM3 MODEL (CANADA) BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST CNRM-CM3 MODEL BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

“run”s of 10 years -> mean montly or last 5 years Small domain: Comparison present/future Poleward flow / Upwelling Vertical and Horizontal profiles of:. Temperature. Salinity. Velocity