INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS Perspective After Cancun par Michel PETIT.

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Presentation transcript:

INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS Perspective After Cancun par Michel PETIT

INTRODUCTION INTERROGATIONS AFTER CANCUN FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE Emphasis on EU and USA

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK POLITICAL ECONOMY APPROACH INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS AMONG GOVERNMENTS NATIONAL POSITIONS ARE « RESULTANTES » THEY ARE PART OF PACKAGES DOMINATED BY DOMESTIC POLICIES (ST and LT)

ILLUSTRATION: CAP & USA I- THE EUROPEAN CAP - Rigidity of Price Support Level - Budget Constraint - Outside Pressures - Need to Come to Closure - New Societal Concerns

ILLUSTRATION: CAP & USA II- US AGRICULTURAL POLICIES (Recent Events) - Farmers’ Income - Budget - International Market Share - Need Coalitions Little on Rural Development etc.

INTERPRETATION OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS CONFLICTS IN SUCCESSIVE GATT ROUNDS Dillon/Kennedy Tokyo Uruguay (Blair House) FROM MARRAKECH TO CANCUN

REVIEW OF AGRICULTURE 1999 DEBATE ON NON-TRADE CONCERNS Multifunctionality and Food Security DISPUTE SETTLEMENT NEGOTIATIONS FOCUS ON THE THREE PILLARS: Market Access Export Competition Domestic Support

CONCLUSION: AND NOW? A TIME TO PAUSE AND TAKE STOCK BUT THE PEACE CLAUSE EXPIRES SOON THE STALEMATE IS REAL NEED TO ASSESS THE POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF POTENTIAL COMPROMISES FUTURE OF MULTILATERALISM IS AT STAKE