Public Opinion and Political Socialization 10

Video: The Big Picture 10 IA_1/polisci/presidency/OConner_Ch10_Public_Opinion_Se g1_v2.html

Trace the development of modern public opinion research Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls Learning Objectives 10

Assess the potential shortcomings of polling Analyze the process by which people form political opinions Learning Objectives 10

Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics 10.5 Learning Objectives 10

Video: The Basics IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_PoliticalOpinion_v2.html 10

Roots of Public Opinion Research  The Earliest Public Opinion Research  The Gallup Organization  The National Election Studies 10.1

The Earliest Public Opinion Research  Polling to predict winner of elections  Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann’s Public Opinion  Literary Digest Straw poll Sample 10.1

Is polling always accurate? 10.1

The Gallup Organization  George Gallup Dissertation on how to measure the readership of newspapers Expanded research to study public opinion about politics  Increased use of polling to market products and candidates 10.1

FIGURE 10.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been? 10.1

Video: In Context IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_PublicOpinion_v2.html

The American National Election Studies  Focuses on attitudes of the electorate How voters voted Party affiliation Opinions of parties and candidates Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential elections 10.1

Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_PublicOpinion_v2.html 10.1

a.Survey b.Straw poll c.Sample d.Registered voters 10.1 Which term describes the people who are polled? 10.1

a.Survey b.Straw poll c.Sample d.Registered voters 10.1 Which term describes the people who are polled? 10.1

Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls  Designing the Survey and Sample  Contacting Respondents  Analyzing the Data 10.2

Designing the Survey and Sample  Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial “Push polls”  Selecting the sample Population Random sampling Stratified sampling 10.2

Contacting Respondents  Telephone polls Random digit dialing survey 10.2

How are polls conducted? 10.2

Contacting Respondents  Telephone polls Tracking polls 10.2

FIGURE 10.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like? 10.2

Contacting Respondents  In-person interviews Exit polls  Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls 10.2

Analyzing the Data  Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns  Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed  Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns 10.2

a.Push poll b.Straw poll c.Tracking poll d.Stratified sampling 10.2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? 10.2

a.Push poll b.Straw poll c.Tracking poll d.Stratified sampling 10.2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? 10.2

Explore the Simulation: You Are a Polling Consultant _1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=

Shortcomings of Polling  Survey Error  Limited Response Options  Lack of Information  Difficulty in Measuring Intensity  Lack of Interest in Political Issues 10.3

Survey Error  Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement  Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample 10.3

Limited Response Option  Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer  “Feeling thermometer” Respondents rate feelings

Lack of Information and Difficulty Measuring Intensity  Filter questions Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue  Responses to personal questions/moral value questions  Feelings stronger about some issues 10.3

Can polls measure intensity of opinion? 10.3

Lack of Interest in Political Issues  Many people lack an opinion on certain policies Policies that don’t affect people directly Policies that don’t involve moral values  Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest  Domestic policy More likely to generate interest 10.3

10.3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? 10.3 a.Lack of interest in political issues b.Difficulty in measuring intensity c.Limited response options d.Survey error e.All of the above

a.Lack of interest in political issues b.Difficulty in measuring intensity c.Limited response options d.Survey error e.All of the above 10.3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? 10.3

Explore Public Opinion: What Do Young People Think about Politics Today? _12/pex/pex10.html 10.3

Forming Political Opinions  Demographic Characteristics  Family, Peers, and School  The Mass Media  Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers  Political Knowledge 10.4

Demographic Characteristics  Gender Women historically more liberal than men 10.4

TABLE 10.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues? 10.4

Demographic Characteristics  Race and ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities  Age affects political socialization  Religion shapes political beliefs 10.4

Family, Peers, and School  Family influence Children learn political beliefs at early age  Peers are influential in middle or high school  Political socialization in school 10.4

How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics? 10.4

FIGURE 10.3: What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students? 10.4

The Mass Media  Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them  Nontraditional news media Talk radio, online magazines, blogs  Cable and Internet Often skewed 10.4

Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers  Political leaders use media to influence public  President uses media as a bully pulpit 10.4

Political Knowledge  Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other  Americans’ level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago 10.4

TABLE 10.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge? 10.4

Political Knowledge  Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status 10.4

a.Communication and receptivity b.Public education c.Political socialization d.Civic knowledge 10.4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called: 10.4

10.4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called: 10.4 a.Communication and receptivity b.Public education c.Political socialization d.Civic knowledge

Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics  Public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics  Polling a key part of that involvement 10.5

Video: In the Real World IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg5_PublicOpinion_v2.html 10.5

10.5 The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to: 10.5 a.The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge b.The increase in alternative political news sources c.The increase in the number of polls d.The decrease in traditional mass media

10.5 The influence of public opinion in politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to: 10.5 a.The increase in Americans’ civic knowledge b.The increase in alternative political news sources c.The increase in the number of polls d.The decrease in traditional mass media

Discussion Questions What role do polls play in policy making? Should public opinion be considered when the government makes policy decisions? How much influence should public opinion have? 10

Video: So What? IA_1/polisci/presidency/OConner_Ch10_Public_Opinion_Se g6_v2.html 10

Further Review: On MyPoliSciLab  Listen to the Chapter  Study and Review the Flashcards  Study and Review the Practice Tests 10