Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011 Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center

Thanks to: National Intelligence Council Long Range Analysis Unit Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program. The Stimson Center

Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Year (5-yr period) Tunisia Egypt Syria Algeria Jordan

Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Cincotta, 2009

DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009 Four categories: four individual countries

Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis: Elites Citizenry Political rights Civil liberties Security Youth Bulge Hypothesis: Effort needed to recruit for political violence Low amount of effort needed High amount of effort needed

Median Age (Years) YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature AuthoritarianismLiberalization Net Benefits

Median Age (Years) Likelihood YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Violent intra-state conflict Liberal democracy

Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Zone of Vulnerability: high risk of political violence high risk of losing liberal democracy

Proportion Liberal democracies Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Nil set

Cincotta & Doces, 2011 Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness in 5 world regions, Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states Cincotta, 2009 Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines.

Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies. Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years) What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization? Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.