Mrs. C. Stephenson Theories of World Population and Resources

Thomas Malthus Background 1830 – World population reaches 1 billion 1830 – World population reaches 1 billion Took 100 years for this to double Took 100 years for this to double By end of 20 th Century (less than 70 years) – 4 billion more = over 7 billion today! By end of 20 th Century (less than 70 years) – 4 billion more = over 7 billion today! Estimated that we are adding 73 million more people to the planet per year Estimated that we are adding 73 million more people to the planet per year Billion more people on the planet in less than 14 years Billion more people on the planet in less than 14 years Huge strain on environment and resources – more and more difficult to control population Huge strain on environment and resources – more and more difficult to control population Malthus was a clergyman, demographer and economist Malthus was a clergyman, demographer and economist Malthus – 1798 – an essay on the Principle of Population

Core Principles of Malthus’ Essay Food is necessary for human existence. Food is necessary for human existence. Human population, if not checked, tends to grow faster than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Human population, if not checked, tends to grow faster than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. Misery is the mechanism that balances human requirements and available resources. Misery is the mechanism that balances human requirements and available resources. Nature's requirement that the imbalance between demand and supply be resolved forms the "strongest obstacle in the way of any very great improvement of society," and thus makes "the perfectibility of man and society" a theoretical and practical impossibility. Nature's requirement that the imbalance between demand and supply be resolved forms the "strongest obstacle in the way of any very great improvement of society," and thus makes "the perfectibility of man and society" a theoretical and practical impossibility. The Principle of Population, i.e., the inevitability of misery due to the power of population to overwhelm resources, provides the mainspring behind the advance of human civilization by creating incentives for progress. The Principle of Population, i.e., the inevitability of misery due to the power of population to overwhelm resources, provides the mainspring behind the advance of human civilization by creating incentives for progress. Checks must be in place to prevent numbers of people exceeding optimum population levels Checks must be in place to prevent numbers of people exceeding optimum population levels

The Irish Famine – 1851… The Ethiopian Famine 1984…”Feed the World!” The Great Depression 1929 Positive Checks – Natures way…

China’s one Child policy China’s one Child policy Negative / Preventative Checks – Human Way

Neo Malthusian… Malthus has been described as: Malthus has been described as: –Dated –Out of touch –Unrealistic –Only applicable to local not global scale –Based only on European information –Too British!

Neo Malthusians believe… Poor nations will never be able to rise much above subsistence levels unless they engage in preventive population checks, if not positive checks

Esther Boserup Background Authored 'The Conditions of Agricultural Growth' published in 1965 Authored 'The Conditions of Agricultural Growth' published in 1965 New technologies becoming more and more available – the age of new thinking (writing at a time when the “space race” was at the fore) New technologies becoming more and more available – the age of new thinking (writing at a time when the “space race” was at the fore)

Boserup’s view on relationship between population growth and supply Population Increase Increased demand for food Agricultural productivity improved More food produced Population Growth continues

Summary of Boserup’s main arguments 1. There is a connection between population and technology. Population change is one of the determinants of technolological change, and technological change is a determinant of demographic change 2. The increase in population pressure stimulates changes in the agricultural system. Rising population leads to intensification of farming methods in order to produce the extra food for the extra numbers. 3. The pressure to change agricultural production by modifying farming techniques and frequencies with which a plot of land is cultivated come from the demand for increased food production 4. The sustained growth of population and agricultural output has secondary effects, which will set off a genuine process of economic growth 5. All parts of the world have experienced these changes owing to the increase in population density

Limitations to Boserup’s Theory Weak economic basis which applies only to the agricultural production of mainly of LEDC’s where the number of people and area could support depends on agricultural techniques. As an area becomes more industrialized and developed, conditions of inadequate food production are much more likely to result in out-migration rather than agricultural innovation. Weak economic basis which applies only to the agricultural production of mainly of LEDC’s where the number of people and area could support depends on agricultural techniques. As an area becomes more industrialized and developed, conditions of inadequate food production are much more likely to result in out-migration rather than agricultural innovation. Does not discuss the most recent technological innovations in the highly industrialized societies. Only based on the assumption of an unsophisticated economies and 'closed' communities. In reality, communities are not closed instead, there is constant in- and out- migration. Relatively few communities, if any, operate closed systems producing food only to meet their own requirements. So it is generally difficult to test her ideas. Does not discuss the most recent technological innovations in the highly industrialized societies. Only based on the assumption of an unsophisticated economies and 'closed' communities. In reality, communities are not closed instead, there is constant in- and out- migration. Relatively few communities, if any, operate closed systems producing food only to meet their own requirements. So it is generally difficult to test her ideas. Boserup's hypothesis gives no consideration to the qualitative aspects of diet and nutrition through changes in agricultural techniques. It is possible that output may increase but the overall quality of diet ant nutrition may decline. Boserup's hypothesis gives no consideration to the qualitative aspects of diet and nutrition through changes in agricultural techniques. It is possible that output may increase but the overall quality of diet ant nutrition may decline. Time Scale. The innovation in agriculture cannot be presumed to occur immediately. If the population growth is rapid, it may overwhelm the agricultural system in the process of adjustment such that the necessary adjustments do not have time to occur. Time Scale. The innovation in agriculture cannot be presumed to occur immediately. If the population growth is rapid, it may overwhelm the agricultural system in the process of adjustment such that the necessary adjustments do not have time to occur. Fragile environments cannot support excessive numbers of people. In such cases, population pressure may not lead to technological innovation as Boserup suggested. Fragile environments cannot support excessive numbers of people. In such cases, population pressure may not lead to technological innovation as Boserup suggested. Boserup herself admits that over-population can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land. And she also recognizes that in certain physical environments, continuing intensification of production may not be possible with rising population pressures. Boserup herself admits that over-population can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land. And she also recognizes that in certain physical environments, continuing intensification of production may not be possible with rising population pressures.

Julian Simons See Planet Geography reading… See Planet Geography reading…

Paul Ehrlich See Planet Geography reading… See Planet Geography reading…