Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Vice-President, Pork Analysis EMI Analytics NPB Pork Management Conference Livestock & Poultry Outlook

Consumer attitudes have not improved...

Attitudes mirrored by RPI – softer but >100...

3-species RPCE was down, yr/yr, again in April..... Reversion to the mean but still on uptrend

Beef, chicken still down in April, pork gained...

Pork uptrend is still intact as well – for now...

Nice yr/yr gain for pork share of RPCE in April YTD ‘16 average is 25.7% vs. 28.8% in ‘15

‘15 was the year of a BIG jump in avail/cons growth in ‘16 will be smaller – ’17 ????

Pork prices incresed in March & April reflecting continuing strong demand!

Pork still has a big advantage on beef at retail...

EMI Analytics Broiler Outlook Sue Trudell Vice President, EMI Analytics

Supply flock: +1.9% in ’15 but +0.5 & 0.6% next 2 yrs

Weight growth slowing to <1% this year...

Output growth slowing: 2.6% to 1.1% to 0.6% in ‘17

Exports will rebound – but remain short of ‘14

Small increase in PC supply in ‘16 – none in ’17 & ‘18

Steady prices for whole birds...

Some growth for breast meat prices...

And continued trouble for leg quarters...

EMI Analytics Turkey Outlook Amanda Martin Senior Analyst

‘15 HPAI losses have made turkey PROFITABLE!

Quite logical reaction: Higher output!

Total turkey output +4% in ‘16, +3.5% in ‘17...

And exports have NOT RECOVERED AT ALL...

Some pressure on whole birds – more in ‘17...

BIG pressure on breast meat – impact on hams?

EMI Analytics Beef and Pork Outlook Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Vice President, Pork Analytics

Weather is still a key factor for beef And conditions are great! – better even in CA!

Record low national poor/very poor ratings

Cow/calf profits: Tremendous incentive to grow!

Beef cow numbers are back above 30 million After falling from 33 to 29 million!

And feeder cattle supplies have FINALLY increased

May COF: Higher numbers, sales & more current! 7.5% 1.1 – 7.1 in April 1.3% 7-5.3%

Fed slaughter has gained steadily on ’15 levels Weights are at ‘15 levels – still BIG!!!

Higher slaughter & weights = higher output We expect Q3 and Q4 to be +3.1 & +3.8%

Beef summary and prices...  Beef prod up ~4% in ‘16 – same in ‘17  Ch. cutout is holding near $220 – implies $138 with cash steers at $128 last week -Cutout supported by middle meats -Ribeyes retest March highs, Strip Loins retest spring ’15 highs near $9 -Round and chuck items supported by trim- mings – but well below last year’s levels  May placements expected to be +7-9%, marketings remain brisk – more current

HOGS & PORK

Higher corn, SBM – Costs up $5+ from April... But still the lowest since 2010

‘17 still looks good in spite of cost increases With ‘17 roughly breakeven at present

April exports were down but due to April ‘15! We are now finished with goofy yr/yr comps.

ALL China/HK – up 95% yr/yr, YTD now +136% ALL others down in April except Canada (+5%)

May China exports were up 8% from April NOT indicative of a ‘08 or ‘11 surge

Pork inventories are finally back to normal...

March H&P – The numbers were slightly bullish...

PEDv has proven to be a non-factor in ‘16...  Data from 1022 sow farms, 25 of 28 large systems reporting, mil. sows!  ZERO breaks since week of 5/27, EWMA now BELOW the epidemic threshold  Our outlook still contains NO PEDv ADJUSTMENTS

There are some questions about PRRS though...  Note 3 bad weeks – last of which was 3/30  Other weeks were very normal -- so will this even show up in the slaughter data?

We still believe USDA missed the BH low Profits, anecdotal evidence of expansion

And the state data raise serious questions...

USDA’s farrowing intentions are probably good But USDA’s yr/yr changes are BAD – revisions

A more useful representation of farrowings...

We still believe USDA’s Dec-Feb pigs/litter is low... Green line = “normal”; we are splitting for now

Higher Canadian imports continue Especially for feeder/weaner pigs post-MCOOL

Slaughter has been very close to our forecasts Tight capacity this fall – much better in ‘17

How much capacity growth and WHEN?

Not much help for ‘16 – but big growth afterward

Slaughter forecasts from March report...

Weights as expected so far... Higher in Q Unless feed items stay at today’s futures levels

Price forecasts – It appears exports will carry us!... I added $3-$4 for both Q3 and Q4

Futures have rallied three times...

Risks  Negative: Major export disruption – small prob, HUGE impact  Neg. or Pos.: PEDv/HPAI – not likely now  Negative: Feed costs  Positive: If PRRS/PEDv were worse?  Negative: Slower demand growth -Domestic: Prefs? Wages/incomes? -Exports: CHINA/HK, $US  Negative: Packing capacity crunch in Q4?  Negative: Pork prices if plants are full in ‘18?