FALSTAFF 3 July, Syndicate Feedback: Falstaff

FALSTAFF 3 July, Will Soft OA become dominant? No Still lots of Hard Problems requiring more attention (logistics, stockpiles, force structures, cost) But it will be significant part Soft is suited to structuring problems and soft power Sometimes this is all that is needed/ time for Should always drive the analysis process Don’t be casual about making assumptions Compute where we can, judge where we cant And Hard/ Soft boundary is blurring Don’t agonise on what we call it (judgement/ evidence) Mixture of Hard and Soft required

FALSTAFF 3 July, Future of “Warfighting” Analysis Continuing need but delivered differently Warfighting is blurring; interdependence of a wide range of activities Still need for analysis to support long lifetime systems in development (e.g. F-35, penetration weapons) Complemented by soft OA studies New focus = distributed set of connectable small warfighting models in a big, broad (soft) framework Analysis of combat at small scale has wider utility (flexibility?) Challenge – getting Stakeholder buy into lower fidelity models in this framework Including internationally where there is a different culture Only then can Campaign and Corp models RIP! (reduced maintenance cost)  Transfer experience to the new models New focus – small models in a framework

FALSTAFF 3 July, Re-Use of Analysis Evidence Enduring value: Insights, principles, empirical evidence E.g. the value of surprise, value of concealment/ cover Methods of analysis Knowledge of impact even if we don’t understand mechanism Not enduring: Model outputs In principle could be used if (but in practice not) Assumptions explicit and sensitivity studies very broad Then could adapt to changed/ changing circumstance Not enduring: Models in general Some have a long history because context hasn’t changed (e.g. blue water naval warfare) But human factors were too difficult  better in newer models but lack basic understanding Accreditation in US never achieved aims – got stuck at Val stage Many modern models have a short life cycle – better methods and tools Enduring: Insights and empirical data

FALSTAFF 3 July, Future Worlds? What characterises Future Worlds and Future Scenarios Likelihood (dominant) and Impact (reluctant to address true worst cases - nationally sensitive) Extreme future worlds – aligned to key axes of interest? A set of worlds to test robustness of plans/ strategy? What are the dynamic factors, and do they have warning times? Should we pull in more from business/ economic experience? How far into the future can we really see? Historical analysis of futures? Rates of change/ rate of shocks Relationship of scenarios to future worlds More explicit in assumptions/ may not be “concurrently” consistent More work required – broader experience?

FALSTAFF 3 July, End of Scenario Based Planning Its use (and misuse) will continue! Needed for quantitative evidence Must understand the question/ decision fully before embarking on scenario analysis Place for objective/ end state formulation Always seek to understand the key issues early Check scenarios test extremes of question/ decision span Note CONOPS / CONEMP development covers similar ground Beware misuse of Scenarios!

FALSTAFF 3 July, Is Defence Change unique to UK NO – but UK change is very significant US – also changing Last QDR identified Acquisition changes  management changes to come Non conventional warfare focus Expect next QDR will align with SDSR Expect resource issues to dominate NATO – also changing New members – become integrated (doctrine and equipment) others  professional force, not conscript All nations have budget / resource issues (inc FR) Some others don’t have resource issues Drug cartel submarine – what are the threat drivers/ rate Affordability for all – except the criminals?

FALSTAFF 3 July, Future ISMOR Keynote speakers Keynote speakers from the senior decision making community Themed days aligned with keynote topics Content Workshops supporting SAS panel activities Tutorials – sharing and learning Shorter – 2/3 days Greater emphasis on affordability topics Planning advisory group Take a more active role in supporting David (and his successor) Contain Customer (MOD), dstl, industry, US, Europe and novice reps Attendance – who to target, how to show benefit to (need for some “market research” to understand their needs) Decision Makers/customers, Military. Europeans, Juniors/novices, Industry (Primes and consultants), Government, Refresh the mailing list, replace retired contacts Links to other Organisations Combined MORS/ISMOR meeting Closer links to ORS INFORMS/MAS SAS panel Cornwallis Must become more relevant to the ISMOR constituency, which is broader than just practitioners