University Extension/Department of Economics Soybean Situation and Outlook 2010 Midwest/Great Plains /Western Outlook Conference Omaha, Nebraska August 17, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist Image Source: Scott Bauer, USDA-ARS

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,6772,9673,3593,433 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2613,1853,5123,603 Crush(mil. bu.)1,8031,6621,7501,650 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,1591,2791,4701,435 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0563,0473,3533,243 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA, Crop Progress

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

University Extension/Department of Economics Projections based on Crop Conditions

University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA-NASS

University Extension/Department of Economics Aug.-Oct. Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-NWS-CPC

University Extension/Department of Economics Aug.-Oct. Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-NWS-CPC

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use Production(mil. lb.)18,74519,55518,810 Beg. Stocks(mil. lb.)2,4852,8613,176 Imports(mil. lb.) Total Supply(mil. lb.)21,31922,52622,101 Domestic(mil. lb.)16,26516,10017,400 Methyl Ester(mil. lb.)2,0131,8002,900 Exports(mil. lb.)2,1933,2502,100 Total Use(mil. lb.)18,45919,35019,500 Ending Stocks(mil. lb.)2,8613,1762,601 Season-Average Price(¢/lb.) Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Production(thou. short tons)39,10241,52539,235 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons) Imports(thou. short tons) Total Supply(thou. short tons)39,48441,90039,700 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,75230,10030,500 Exports(thou. short tons)8,49711,5008,900 Total Use(thou. short tons)39,24941,60039,400 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons) Season-Average Price($/short ton) Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics Population (billion) World6.831World7.558World9.202 China1.330China1.385India1.657 India1.173India1.326China1.304 U.S.0.310U.S.0.341U.S Indonesia0.243Indonesia0.268Indonesia0.313 Brazil0.201Brazil0.223Ethiopia0.278 Pakistan0.177Pakistan0.204Pakistan0.276 Bangladesh0.158Nigeria0.182Nigeria0.264 Nigeria0.152Bangladesh0.181Brazil0.260 Russia0.139Russia0.132Bangladesh0.234 Japan0.127Mexico0.125Congo0.189 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

University Extension/Department of Economics In 2020, we will use 26 billion bushels of wheat, 36 billion bushels of corn, and 11 billion bushels of soybeans. World Consumption Growth Sources: USDA, FAPRI In 2000, we used 21.5 billion bushels of wheat, 24 billion bushels of corn, and 6 billion bushels of soybeans.

University Extension/Department of Economics Exchange Rates (Jan = 1) Source: USDA-ERS

University Extension/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA-FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics Advance Sales Source: USDA-FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics Advance Sales Source: USDA-FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

University Extension/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production

University Extension/Department of Economics Biodiesel Margins Source: ISU-CARD

University Extension/Department of Economics Soy

University Extension/Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 30, 2010

University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2009 Season-Average Soy Price

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Price Movements

University Extension/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: