Report 70.0 - 4 th Quarter Release - Cape Town 28 February 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Report th Quarter Release - Cape Town 28 February 2013

General International Developments:  US ABC Re-positions  After nearly 100 years, the organisation will assume the new name of the Alliance for Audited Media.  AAM president and managing director Michael Lavery said: “With advancements in the media industry and the progress our organisation has made in developing new digital audit services and cross-media expertise, we felt it was time to refresh our brand to better reflect our strategic role in the new media world.” Print in perspective (  This website contains a collection of facts on the print industry and demonstrates that print is far from dead...or dying.  Certainly worth a visit.

Local.  The “Real” penetration of Print.  Increasing focus on digital and print currencies. From print’s perspective some worrying concerns being raised around readers per copy results.  Global and local calculations questioning the accuracy of high RPC data.  Certainly food for thought!  “Future Proofing” SAARF Questionnaire released.  This is an industry-wide initiative amongst data customers/users in an effort to ensure the continued relevance of AMPS data…including readerships.  Given the importance, we would highly recommend the involvement of interested parties. Contact the AMF for more details.

Rule Amendments effective 1st July 2012: ‘PDF Replica Edition’ replaces ‘Digital Edition’, to accommodate non-replica digital editions. PDF Replica Editions will continue to be reported together with print. ‘Digital Editions’ will be reported separately. Any title refusing to allow a check audit to be conducted, will have its membership terminated.

Membership Statistics:

Sector size ranked by average circulation – Quarter :

Overall Economic Perspective Comment: Retail sales increased by 8.6% in Q3 2012, compared to The largest increase was in Food, Beverage and Tobacco. GDP increased by 2.3% quarter on quarter. The largest increase was in Wholesale, Retail and Motor Trade.

Newspaper Performance Relative to Economic Measures. Comment: Total newspapers declined by copies in Q4 compared to the previous quarter

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Daily Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 5.7 % since 2008, equivalent to 411,000 copies. Q4 declined by 2.2% when compared to Q3.

4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined by 6.5% annually (349, 000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined by 4.9% annually (70,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have increased by 2% annually (9,000 copies) over the period

4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland Daily Newspapers Comment: Inland circulation declined annually by 6.7% (320,000 copies) over the period. Coastal circulation declined annually by 3.7% (91,000 copies) over the period.

Titles Showing Largest Growth Daily Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Isolezwe106,858103, % 107, % 2 Herald, The22,07921, % 22, % 3 Diamond Fields Advertiser9,3759, % 9, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Daily Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance – Previous Quarter 1 Cape Argus32,33744, %33, % 2 Star, The102,244128, %105, % 3 Cape Times34,62742, %34, % 4 Pretoria News17,57621, %19, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Weekly Newspapers Comment: Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance decreasing annually by 0.9% (24,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, declined by 7.9% compared to Q3.

Titles Showing Largest Growth Weekly Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Motorsport World8,8413, %4, % 2 Soccer Laduma311,774300, %360, %

New Members/Removals Weekly Newspapers

Titles Showing Largest Decline Weekly Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 UmAfrika8,91012, %10, % 2 Ilanga118,584129, %124, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Weekend Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 3.5% (376,000 copies) over the period. Q4 declined by 3.2 % when compared to Q3

4 Year Trend Analysis by Language: Weekend Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined annually by 5.6% (442,000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined by annually by 3.9% (99,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have grown annually by 33% (135,000 copies) over the period.

Titles Showing Largest Growth Weekend Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo73,44858, % 73, % 2 Isolezwe ngeSonto87,17580, % 84, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Weekend Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1Pretoria News Saturday11,51014, % 11, % 2 Saturday Star, The75,08994, % 75, % 3 Sondag35,30743, % 39, % 4 Ilanga Langesonto64,34479, % 74, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Local Newspapers Comment: Local Newspapers have declined by 2.2% (49,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, declined by 3% when compared to Q3.

Titles Showing Largest Growth Local Newspapers No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Tembisan9,1766, % 9, % 2 Talk of the Town2,7842, % 2, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Local Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Limpopo Informant2,4222, %2, % 2 Vryheid Herald2,9543, %2, % 3 The Mail12,72514, % % 4 Bosvelder2,5182, % %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Hybrid Newspapers Comment: Circulation has increased annually by 3.8% (24,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, declined by 2.1% compared to Q3.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Free Newspapers Comment: Distribution has increased annually by 7.4% (1,504,000 copies) over the period, although only increasing by 1.9% in Q4, compared to Q3.

New Members / Removals Free Newspapers

Titles Showing Largest Growth Free Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Zululand Eyethu (formerly Eshowe Watch)24,2406, % 24, % 2 Maritzburg Echo35,29224, % 35, % 3 City Vision (Langa/Gugulethu)49,63440, % 49, % 4 Corridor Gazette5,8004, % 5, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Free Newspapers No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Cosmos Gazette14,95024, % 19, % 2 Ilembe Eyethu19,94729, % 19, % 3 Theewaterkloof Gazette (Formerly Kontreinuus Gaz.)10,60915, % 10, % 4 PE Express Indaba39,77054, % 39, % 5 Durban North Fever14,90019, % 19, %

Magazine Performance Relative to Economic Measures. Comment: Total magazines declined by 0.9% (187,000 copies) over the previous quarter. Consumer magazines decreased by 2.2% (146,000 copies) over the previous quarter.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines Comment: Circulation increased annually by 1.5% (417,000 copies) over the period although performance over the past 2 quarters has been disappointing.

New Members / Removals Consumer Magazines

Titles Showing Largest Growth Consumer Magazines No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 The Expatriate SA (Annual)4,2112, % 2 HQ Pony8,1724, % 4, % 3 Kuier94,92658, % 78, % 4 Living and Loving28,67220, % 29, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Consumer Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 The Red Bulletin64,250130, % 68, % 2 Joburg Style (Annual)16,50427, % 3 Prestige9,50015, % 9, % 4 Tempo (Annual)39,99162, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Home Comment: Circulation increased annually by 4.7% (128,000 copies) over the period. Q4, however, declined by a significant 10.2% when compared to Q3.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby Comment: Circulation increased by 2.8% annually (55,000 copies) over the period. Q3 and Q4 have not reflected the growth shown in Q1 and Q2.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines - Travel Comment: Circulation increased annually by 11.9% (179,000 copies) over the period, although Q4 reflected a considerable decline of 14.5%.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General Comment: This category has fluctuated considerably. Circulation declined by 0.9% annually (63,000 copies) over the period, although increasing by 35, 000 copies (2.3%) in Q4.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Business to Business Magazines Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period..

New Members / Removals Business to Business Magazines

Titles Showing Largest Growth Business to Business Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 South Africa in the Palm of your Hand (Annual)26,7306, % 2 Public Sector Manager7,3603, % 8, % 3 To Build (Annual) 8,8865, % 4 African Mines Handbook (Annual)1,7251, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Business to Business Magazines No Publication NameTOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Conference Venues (Annual)4,83011, % 2 Sustain (Annual)1,4502, % 3 Pedmed (Six- Monthly)3,2686, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering and Tourism Comment: Circulation declined annually by 6.0% (30,000 copies) over the period, although stabilising over the last 2 quarters.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: B2B Magazines – Management Comment: Circulation declined annually by 5.2% (64,000 copies) over the period. Q4 declined by 4.1% compared to Q3.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines Comment: Circulation increased annually by 2.4% (1,225,000 copies) over the period. Q4 has continued the growth shown in Q3.

New Members / Removals Custom Magazines

Titles Showing Largest Growth Custom Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Foschini Balanced Life58,04925, % 50, % 2 ClubX227,754131, % 142, % 3 Reality (Annual)177,279110, % 4 Ackermans Club (formerly A-Plus) ( Six- Monthly)96,71268, %

Titles Showing Largest Decline Custom Magazines No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter 1 Geen & Richards Club (Annual)4,64810, % 2 Supersport Diary (Annual)4,50010, % 3 J S E (annual)13,24228, % 4 Furniture City Club (Annual)8,30117, %

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines – Entertainment Comment: Circulation increased annually by 3.4% (396,000 copies) over the period. Q increased by 6% compared to Q3.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Custom Magazines – Retail Comment: Circulation increased annually by 1.7% (474,000 copies) over the period, increasing by 4% in Q4 compared to Q3.

4 Year Category Trend by Quarter: Free Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 19.1%, over the period. Q4 increased by a creditable19.2 % compared to Q3.

Observations: General: The static ABC membership position confirms the difficult trading environment for print in general. The reported 2.4% GDP growth for 2012 leaves a great deal to be desired. Increasing job insecurity and rising labour costs drive the move to automation. For readers this means tougher choices and potentially less support for titles not satisfying their needs. From a currency perspective we note and indeed welcome the growing debate around AMPS and the Future Proofing initiative that is underway. Specific: The slide in Daily Newspaper and Local Newspaper circulations continues, and quarterly redefines new low levels. Vernacular titles generally continue to fare better than other language titles. Coastal titles, while down, seem less affected than inland titles..

Weekend newspapers have not repeated the brief recovery seen in Q1 2012, and like Daily newspapers, this category also now reaches new lows each quarter. Titles targeting a middle mass seem better protected from the declines, and some such as Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo have done particularly well. The free newspaper category is growing. Across all Magazine categories we see overall decline, but as in previous reports, we still note strong individual title growth. A few worth mentioning are: > New title like Forbes Africa, up 21% and delivering a single copy sales result equal to many other established business titles. > Readers Digest +12%, House & Leisure +16%, Playboy +7%, Baba & Kleuter +13%, Living & Loving +38%, Sowetan Magazine +14%, Fairlady +17%, Good Housekeeping +18% and Kuier + 61%

Business 2 Business and Custom categories continue to grow and produce solid performances. With most titles however in decline, it’s easy and indeed tempting to become depressed about print. In fact, we should be celebrating the efforts of the minority that continue to do well. Circulation is democracy in print, and we all should celebrate success and growth - not mope the decline and growing mediocrity. That said, for most titles, the million dollar questions have to be, simply: when will the slide stop? and should they change while still declining?

Thank you.

Your ABC - Transparency you can see -