Navitskaya Katsiaryna Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno Grodno, Belarus Modeling and optimization of multi-agent situation analysis’ procedures in.

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Navitskaya Katsiaryna Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno Grodno, Belarus Modeling and optimization of multi-agent situation analysis’ procedures in decision-making

Contents Introduction Theoretical results – the concept of situational analysis – the possibility of applying the multi-agent systems theory to this process – the adaptation of multi-agent situational analysis to regional governance Practical part –situation analysis of the information society’s development in the regions of Belarus Conclusions 2PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

Introduction PhD Students Conference, Rogow My specialty: Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics My PhD Thesis: Modeling and optimization of multi-agent situation analysis’ procedures in decision- making My goal: to improve methods and techniques (models) of multi-agent (multi-criteria) situational analysis for justify management decisions

identification and assessment of possible changes in the enterprise’s working the influence of the present external and internal factors, the possible risks transformation of the current situation Source: Situational analysis 4PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

Situational analysis functions Situational analysis Data collection Information sharing Data processing Decision- making Self- evaluation PhD Students Conference, Rogow 20135

The multi-agent theory Reasons large number of criteria and restrictions; uncertainty of results; the necessity of taking into account occurring events; experts’ adequacy within limited area. 6PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013 Rezults Speed-up process; High efficienty of procedure; Economy of resources (labor, material, computer, etc.).

Regional governance Region as an independent system and as a subsystem of the state dual subordination of local departments to the ministry and to the local executive committee PhD Students Conference, Rogow 20137

Multi-agent situational analysis of region’s development 8PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

Practical part Test subject area: management of regional medium-and long-term development on the example of Grodno region Goal: to evaluate the effectiveness and impact to economic development at the regional level PhD Students Conference, Rogow 20139

Information society Information and communication technologies (ICT) Knowledge and information 10PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

The system of indicators Data: the official data of 16 indicators for each regions of Belarus in PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

The results of factor analysis Factor % of the variance the work of the ICT sector Factor % of the variance the Internet's using Factor % of the variance Using electronic document PhD Students Conference, Rogow

The results of correlation analysis Pair of Variables Valid NSpearman Rр-levelComment Factor 1 & GRP 60, ,004805Correlation is significant, positive Factor 2 & GRP 6-0,20,704Correlation is not significant Factor 3 & GRP 60, ,871743Correlation is not significant 13PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

The conclusion In theory: the concept of multi-agent situational analysis and its functional model received. In practice: – there is a high degree of differentiation in information society level of regions of Belarus; – only ICT sector’s work impact to GRP; – It’s necessary to increase ICT costs (now it’s less then 3% of GRP). In future: to develop a prototype of multi-agent decision-support system for region management. 14PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013

THANK FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Katsiaryna Navickaya Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno 15PhD Students Conference, Rogow 2013