The evolution of the England and Wales census in a European context Garnett Compton, ONS RSS Conference, 9 September 2015

Overview Census Transformation Programme for E&W Background and progress; European Censuses – what are everyone else’s plans? Users – how will it affect them? Summary 2

The Census History A count (estimate) of the whole population –Every town, every village, every street Once a decade since 1801 (except 1941) Compulsory under the 1920 Census Act

Why we conduct a census Underpins national policy making Used to allocate funding to local areas Used to plan investment & service delivery across public, private and voluntary sectors Base for population estimates & projections Unique source of nationally consistent, detailed socio-demographic statistics for small areas and small groups within population

Beyond 2011 Programme... 1 ONS consulted on two options in autumn 2013: Census once a decade Census based on administrative data and large annual surveys National Statistician’s recommendation An online census of all households and communal establishments in 2021 AND Increased use of administrative data and surveys 5

Beyond 2011 Programme... 2 Way forward agreed with Government “The Government welcomes the recommendation for a predominantly online census in 2021 supplemented by further use of administrative and survey data. Government recognises the value of the census and its history as a bedrock of statistical infrastructure. The census provides information on the population that is of fundamental importance to society.... Our ambition is that censuses after 2021 will be conducted using other sources of data and providing more timely statistical information.... dependent on the dual running sufficiently validating the perceived feasibility of that approach.” Minister for the Cabinet Office, July

Census Transformation Programme initiated online Census operation Developing and implementing 2021 online Census 2.Integrated population statistics outputs Producing and enhancing census outputs with admin and survey data Research outputs from 2015 onwards 3.Beyond 2021 Acquire new administrative data Develop new methods using admin data and surveys Three strands: 7

Developing the 2021 Census Design Follow-up Deliver Process Analyse Collect Disseminate 8 Drivers for change Lessons learned from 2011 User needs Changes in society and technology Improvements in administrative data sources Continue to deliver value for money Main areas of change Online first Understanding areas/populations of hard to count and digital inclusion Multi-mode follow-up of non-responding households Data Processing and outputs Use of administrative data

Aspirations and Expectations Aiming to replicate as many census outputs as possible using admin data (and surveys) by 2021 Research update and outputs published each year, subject to data access and quality At this stage they are not Official Statistics New integrated census and admin data outputs, subject to data access and quality Building towards a recommendation in 2023 on the future of Census and population statistics 9

Potential of administrative sources 10

Producing population statistics from admin data and surveys NHS Patient Register DWP/HMRC Customer Information System 1% coverage survey HESA data (students) population statistics Statistical Population Dataset (SPD) 11 Address Register 2021 Census Other Admin Data Other Surveys

Producing population counts from admin data and surveys NHS Patient Register DWP/HMRC Customer Information System HESA data (students) population counts Statistical Population Dataset (SPD) 12

Aims of publishing admin based research outputs New annual admin based research outputs beginning Autumn 2015 to enable: feedback from users on quality methods to be improved through time operationalise procedures users to derive early benefits Aim to demonstrate improvements each year in: breadth (topics) and/or (geographical) detail and/or accuracy/timeliness 13

What is happening with European Censuses? 14

Evolution of census methods (EU+EFTA) Source: UNECE

Census methods and plans for 2021 ??? Source: UNECE

What might these developments mean for users? 17

The ‘positives’ More flexible outputs More timely and frequent More efficient Therefore greater use and benefit realisation?

The ‘negatives’ Reduced ‘quality’? Long-term viability and maintenance of admin based sources? Reluctance to change which may impact on user acceptance Comparability of census results: Traditional censuses usual residence concept Register-based censuses use registered population, and concepts are generally those needed for admin. purposes

Example of comparability by census method: Inclusion of selected population groups (% of countries including the group in the total pop’n)

SUMMARY 21

Summary/conclusions Lots of potential for admin data Early progress on developing methods is promising Research outputs this Autumn Gaining access to, and using, administrative data is not without its challenges 22

Census customer services: Tel: Thank you - Questions 23