“School Enrolments and Trends” SPOA & CEFPI Spring, 2009

The Enrolment Challenge Strong futures are built upon a shared understanding of present realities ENROLMENT GOVERNMENT FUNDING FACILITIES

 Share information about recent history and future projections  The challenge we face, given the provincial funding formula and a long- term decline in enrolment  A Puzzle of the future shape of district programs and facilities Demographic Trends We’ve Been Living a ‘Boom, Bust and Echo’

The ‘Boom, Bust & Echo:  Baby Boomers born between 1947 to 1966  Peaked in 1959 with 480,000 Canadian births  Bust Generation 1967 to 1979 –  child bearing declined to 1.6 children per couple.  Echo Boomer Children 1980 to 1995  Peaked in 1990 with 405,000 Canadian births  By 1997 Births were 13 percent below this peak  Peak Births are now 19 years old

The Demographic Future  We’ll be facing both declining elementary and declining secondary enrolments much as we did in the mid-1970s when the Boomer parents of the Echo students completed their elementary and secondary education.  Boomers moved to the suburbs to raise their Echo children, these population trends are likely to be especially apparent in Canada's suburbs.  Current age distribution provides an excellent road map for future planning and education funding as long as we use local demographic information for our planning.

“The Population Pyramid”

“The Future Population Pyramid”

School District Enrolment Issues  Economic Changes Affecting Growth  Open Boundaries  Enrolment Flow Patterns  Increase of Magnet Programs  Facility Consolidations, if not already undertaken

Look Below the Surface Total Population for All Ages is growing School Age enrolment is declining and only just recovers to current levels

Enrolment Projections: Total

Experience Elsewhere in BC Enrolment Projections (1558A) Province Change Elementary352,426305,959-13% Secondary258,425253,211-2% Saanich Change Elementary4,9683,794-23% Secondary4,0023,543-11%

Independent Schools Enrolment Projections (1558A) Independent Change Elementary38,962 36, % Secondary20,535 21, % Saanich Change Elementary4,9683,794-23% Secondary4,0023,543-11%

Cross Boundary Considerations Keating Elementary School Early French Immersion Magnet EnglishTotal Cross Boundary Enrolment

Economic Considerations  In-migration or Out-migration is impacted by job prospects and housing affordability of your area.  Recession of 1982 working parents relocated to Ontario or Alberta  Compare Changes to Unemployment Rates across Canada or BC  Consider Major Industry Closures

Enrolment Flow Patterns  Background – Map of School District & Catchment Boundaries – Location of Schools and Enrolments – Available Before or After School Care Programs – Proximity of Recreation Facilities – Major Traffic School Bus or Transportation Routes – New Locally Developed or Magnet Programs – Parent School ‘Shopping’

School Choice Legislation  Government amended the School Act to give parents and students the freedom to choose any school provided space is available  District cannot mandate that students attend a particular school to maintain enrolment

The District spreads over 4 municipalities: Sidney North Saanich Central Saanich Saanich District Map

Enrolment Flow Patterns Majority of Students in Southern Cordova Bay Catchment Attend Lochside If Consistent, Legitimize through Boundary Adjustment, or Enable Open Boundaries.

School Catchment Considerations Regular Programs: Non-French Immersion

How has Government Funding Changed?  Funding System up to 2001/02 recognized base fixed costs in funding allocation: – provided base instructional cost per school – provided funding for operating and maintaining schools on a per square meter basis – recognized the number of district schools  Current Funding System provides the majority of the funding on a per pupil basis: – funding for operating and maintaining schools is within the base per pupil funding (about 11.5%) – no base instructional funding base per school – enrolment decline grant for one year

District Responses  School Closures 113 Schools in B.C. closed: - 88 Elementary Schools - 5 Middle Schools - 6 Secondary - 14 Other

Further Information  Statistics Canada  eng.htm eng.htm  www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/ consultation/92-135/education.cfm  BC Stats – Population Statistics   Baragar Demographics   David K. Foot – author, ‘Boom-Bust-Echo’ 