SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management SKMA Aviation Management Project management - Network Analysis Project Management SKMA Flight Management Dr. Mastura Ab Wahid (C23-323) & Capt. Kannan (Room) Department of Aeronautical Engineering Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project SKMA Flight Management A project is a temporary endeavor designed to produce a unique product, service or result with a defined beginning and end (usually time-constrained, and often constrained by funding) undertaken to meet unique goals and objectives, typically to bring about beneficial change or added value. The application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet the project requirements General name given to certain specific techniques which can be used for the planning, management and control of projects. Project Management Network Analysis Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Outline 1. Introduction to Aviation Project Management 2. Project Management Process 3. Project Planning 4. Critical Path Method Lecture outcomes: 1. Understand the general process of Project Management. 2. Describe the role and application of CPM for project planning. 3. Develop a complete project schedule. 4. Compute the critical path, the project completion time. SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management INTRODUCTION TO AVIATION PROJECT MANAGEMENT The primary aim as a project manager requires that you complete your projects on time, finish within budget, and make sure your customers/stakeholders are satisfy with what you deliver. Within a project management elements of risk and uncertainty are ever-presents, therefore the events and tasks leading to completion can never be accurately foretold. The consequences of such project failures can extend well beyond time and cost excesses, and can lead to expensive litigation, contractual penalties, and cancelled orders. Ex: KLIA 2 SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management Processes: Initiating Define preliminary schedule, cost and identify risk. Develop project charter Plan resources Planning Define detailed project schedule, estimate cost Secure resources Executing Perform project work Monitoring and controlling Manage schedule, costs, risks, stakeholder and project team Closing Perform administrative closure Release project resources SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management 6 Project team typically consists of a group of individuals from various areas in an organization and often includes outside consultants. Members of engineering staff often assigned to project work. Most important member of project team is the project manager. Project manager is often under great pressure because of uncertainty inherent in project activities and possibility of failure. Project manager must be able to coordinate various skills of team members into a single focused effort. THE PROJECT TEAM Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management PROJECT PLANNING 1.Henry Gantt (1861 – 1919) → bar Chart, planning and progressing small projects or no detailed information available. 2.DuPont Company (1960) → Critical Path Method (CPM) 3.Polaris (1958) → Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) During the definition phase, the defined activities and time estimates made by the project manager will be used as inputs for the planning phase. It aims at the construction of a timetable or network to determine the activity start and finish times and to determine a realistic total project duration within the limitations of the precedence relations and other constraint types. Project Planning Techniques SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Originated by H.L.Gantt in 1918 Advantages Gantt charts are quite commonly used. They provide an easy graphical representation of when activities (might) take place. Limitations Do not clearly indicate details regarding the progress of activities Do not give a clear indication of interrelationship between the separate activities Gantt Chart: Example to buy aircraft components * Network diagram assign time-based priorities to tasks and highlight critical jobs. SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Planning using network analysis 1.What is the total time required to complete the project? 2.What are the start and the completion times for individual activities? 3.Which critical activities must be completed as scheduled to meet the estimated project completion time? 4.How much delay can be tolerated for non-critical activities without incurring a delay in the estimated project completion time? 5.What is the least expensive way to speed up a project to meet a targeted completion time? SKMA Flight Management CRITITCAL PATH METHOD Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Basic technique of CPM The essential technique for using CPM is to construct a model of the project that includes the following: 1.A list of all activities required to complete the project 2.The time (duration) that each activity will take to completion, and 3.The dependencies between the activities The dependencies include: 1.The availability of labour and other resources 2. Lead times for delivery of materials and other services 3. Seasonal factors – such as winter snow disruption causing delay SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Activity-on-Arc vs. Activity-on-Node Network Diagrams Project Management Two conventions are used in practice for displaying project networks: (1)Activity-on-Arc (AOA) : (2)Activity-on-Node (AON). Our previous example used the AOA convention. The characteristics of the two are:  AON Each activity is represented by a node in the network. A precedence relationship between two activities is represented by an arc or link between the two. AON may be less error prone because it does not need dummy activities or arcs.  AOA Each activity is represented by an arc in the network. If activity X must precede activity Y, there are X leads into arc Y. The nodes thus represent events or “milestones” (e.g., “finished activity X”). Dummy activities of zero length may be required to properly represent precedence relationships. AOA historically has been more popular, perhaps because of its similarity to Gantt charts used in scheduling

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 12 A branch reflects an activity of a project. A node represents the beginning and end of activities, referred to as events. Branches in the network indicate precedence relationships. When an activity is completed at a node, it has been realized. The Project Network Activity-on-Arc Network for Building a House

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 13 Time duration of activities shown on branches: Network for Building a House with Activity Times The Project Network Activity-on-Arc

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 14 Activities can occur at the same time (concurrently). A dummy activity shows a precedence relationship but reflects no passage of time. Two or more activities cannot share the same start and end nodes. Expanded Network for Building a House Showing Concurrent Activities The Project Network Activity-on-Arc : Concurrent Activities

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 15 The Project Network Paths Through a Network Paths Through the House-Building Network

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 16 The critical path is the longest path through the network; the minimum time the network can be completed. Path A: 1  2  3  4  6  7, = 9 months Path B: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7, = 8 months Path C: 1  2  4  6  7, = 8 months Path D: 1  2  4  5  6  7, = 7 months The Project Network The Critical Path (1 of 2)

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 17 The Project Network The Critical Path (2 of 2) Figure 13.6 Alternative Paths in the Network

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 18 ES is the earliest time an activity can start. ES ij = Maximum (EF i ) EF is the earliest start time plus the activity time. EF ij = ES ij + t ij The Project Network Activity Scheduling – Earliest Times Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times – forward pass

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 19 LS is the latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time. LS ij = LF ij - t ij LF is the latest finish time. LF ij = Minimum (LS j ) The Project Network Activity Scheduling – Latest Times Latest Activity Start and Finish Times – Backward pass

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 20 Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the project. Slack Time exists for those activities not on the critical path for which the earliest and latest start times are not equal. Shared Slack is slack available for a sequence of activities. The Project Network Activity Slack Earliest and Latest Activity Start and Finish Times

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 21 Slack, S ij, computed as follows: S ij = LS ij - ES ij or S ij = LF ij - EF ij The Project Network Calculating Activity Slack Time (1 of 2) Activity Slack

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 22 The Project Network Calculating Activity Slack Time (2 of 2) Table 8.2 Activity Slack

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management LST=LFT-t EFT=EST+t EST EFT LSTLFT A t Slack=LST+EST or LFT-EFT Activity Activity Duration SKMA Flight Management Project Management The Project Network Activity-on-Node (AON)

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Start Finish C A B E D F 3 NodeActivityPreceded ByDuration ADesign house and obtain financing-3 months BLay FoundationA2 months COrder materialsA1 months DSelect PaintC,B1 months ESelect CarpetD1 months FBuild HouseC,B3 months GFinish WorkE,F1 months 8 9 G 1 Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management List of Activities for the Airport Gate Management System (AGMS) Acquisition Project Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Advantages and Disadvantages of CPM AdvantagesDisadvantages Most importantly – helps reduce the risk and costs of complex projects Reliability of CPM largely based on accurate estimates and assumptions made Encourage careful assessment of the requirements of each activity CPM does not guarantee the success of a project – still need to manage properly A decision making tool and planning- tool all in one Too many activities may the network diagram too complicated Provide managers with useful overview of complex project SKMA Flight Management Project Management

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management PERT is a sophisticated tool used in planning, scheduling and controlling large projects consisting of a number of activities independent of one another and with uncertain completion times. It is commonly used in research and development projects. The Project Management: Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 29 Activity time estimates usually cannot be made with certainty. PERT used for probabilistic activity times. In PERT, three time estimates are used: most likely time (m), the optimistic time (a), and the pessimistic time (b). These provide an estimate of the mean and variance of a beta distribution: mean (expected time): variance: Probabilistic Activity Times

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 30 Probabilistic Activity Times Example (1 of 3) Network for Installation Order Processing System

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 31 Probabilistic Activity Times Example (2 of 3) Activity Time Estimates

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 32 Probabilistic Activity Times Example (3 of 3) Network with Mean Activity Times and Variances

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 33 Probabilistic Activity Times Earliest and Latest Activity Times and Slack Earliest and Latest Activity Times

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 34 Activity Earliest and Latest Times and Slack Probabilistic Activity Times Earliest and Latest Activity Times and Slack 9

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 35 The expected project time is the sum of the expected times of the critical path activities. The project variance is the sum of the variances of the critical path activities. The expected project time is assumed to be normally distributed (based on central limit theorem). In example, expected project time (t p ) and variance (v p ) interpreted as the mean (  ) and variance (  2 ) of a normal distribution:  = 25 weeks  2 = 6.9 weeks Probabilistic Activity Times Expected Project Time and Variance

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 36 Using normal distribution, probabilities are determined by computing number of standard deviations (Z) a value is from the mean. Value is used to find corresponding probability in Standard Normal Distribution Table Probability Analysis of a Project Network (1 of 2)

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 37 Probability Analysis of a Project Network (2 of 2) Normal Distribution of Network Duration

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Project Management 38 Z value of 1.90 corresponds to probability of.4713 in Table Probability of completing project in 30 weeks or less: ( ) =  2 = 6.9  = 2.63 Z = (x-  )/  = (30 -25)/2.63 = 1.90 Probability Analysis of a Project Network Example 1 (1 of 2)

SKMA 3812 – Aviation Management Advantages and Disadvantages of PERT AdvantagesDisadvantages 1. It compels managers to plan their projects critically and analyse all factors affecting the progress of the plan 1. Uncertainly about the estimate of time and resources. 2. It provides the management a tool for forecasting the impact of schedule changes and be prepared to correct such situations. 2. needs a high degree of planning skill and greater amount of details which would increase the cost in time and manpower resources, 3. The PERT time (Te) is based upon 3-way estimate and hence is the most objective time in the light of uncertainties and results in greater degree of accuracy in time forecasting. 3. It is not suitable for relatively simple and repetitive processes such as assembly line work which are fixed-sequence jobs. 4. It results in improved communication; the network provides a common ground for various parties such as designers, contractors, project managers etc. and they must all understand each other’s role and contributions. SKMA Flight Management Project Management