Date of download: 7/5/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: The Bleeding Risk and Natural History of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Patients With Persistent Low Platelet Counts Arch Intern Med. 2000;160(11): doi: /archinte The Markov model: a schematic illustration of the model, the Markov states (all capitals), and cycle transitions (initial-capped only). In a sample scenario, a patient starting off in the ITP (idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura) state may die (of a bleeding event or an unrelated cause), transferring to the DEAD state; or may suffer a disabling stroke, transferring to the DISABLED state; or may achieve a remission, transferring to the REMISSION state. Otherwise, the patient will remain in the ITP state for the next cycle. (Transient events such as major bleeding events without long-term effects are not represented in this illustration.) Figure Legend:

Date of download: 7/5/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: The Bleeding Risk and Natural History of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Patients With Persistent Low Platelet Counts Arch Intern Med. 2000;160(11): doi: /archinte Pooled analysis of the annual rate of fatal hemorrhage among patients with persistent low platelet counts (<30 ×10 9 /L). The rate is calculated as the ratio between the number of fatal bleeding events and the patient time at risk. Upper and lower limits of the intervals are based on the lower and upper estimates of patient-years of follow-up, respectively. The upper patient time estimate was based on the maximum follow-up time, the lower estimate, on the median follow-up time. The point estimate is the mean of the upper and lower estimates. (Intervals are missing in 2 studies: Guthrie et al reported exact patient time, and Rocco and Stein reported only the maximum estimate of follow-up time.) Studies in which the period was not specified have been ordered approximately, according to publication date. Figure Legend:

Date of download: 7/5/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: The Bleeding Risk and Natural History of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Patients With Persistent Low Platelet Counts Arch Intern Med. 2000;160(11): doi: /archinte Estimated annual rate of fatal (left) and major nonfatal (right) hemorrhages according to patient age group, based on pooled analysis from idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura case series. Upper and lower limits represent low and high patient time estimates. Figure Legend:

Date of download: 7/5/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: The Bleeding Risk and Natural History of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Patients With Persistent Low Platelet Counts Arch Intern Med. 2000;160(11): doi: /archinte Cumulative probabilities for bleeding events, according to age group and time period. p(T)=1−e −r × T, where p indicates probability; T, time period in years; e, the natural logarithm; and r, annual rate. Figure Legend:

Date of download: 7/5/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: The Bleeding Risk and Natural History of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Patients With Persistent Low Platelet Counts Arch Intern Med. 2000;160(11): doi: /archinte Model prediction of effect of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) with low platelet count on prognosis in terms of life expectancy and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Figure Legend: