Roland Götz German Institute for International and Security Affairs Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik www.swp-berlin.org.

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Presentation transcript:

Roland Götz German Institute for International and Security Affairs Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

The gas: new European projects of Gazprom Map: Shtokman gas field Ust Luga (Primorsk?) LNG plant/terminal 3200 bcm gas reserves (all Russian ABC1 grade) On-stream introduction in 2012 Peak production 21 bcm/year (first stage) 5mmt annual capacity Commencement in Gas source unknown Yamal-Europe Next stages given up? Baltic gas pipeline 27 bcm annual capacity at first stage, 55 bcm total Commencement in 2010 Gas source - primarily Yuzhno- Russkoye gas field

The Baltic gas pipeline: will Russia be able to bypass Ukraine? The structure of Russian gas export corridors Today After the Baltic pipeline is fully commenced (55 bcmpa, 2012?) Ukraine will still serve as the dominant Russia’s export transit corridor for Central, Eastern and Southern European markets, no matter what Source: Gazprom

Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Revolution in gas transport: World gas market evolving Revolution in gas transport: World gas market evolving LNG transport profitable from 2000 km on LNG transport profitable from 2000 km on Big investment for liquefactation and regasification plants necessary Big investment for liquefactation and regasification plants necessary Growing LNG infrastructure Growing LNG infrastructure

Transportation Cost (Institute of Gas Technology) LNG transportation cost does not affect on LNG train cost if the distance of transportation is changed

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