THE IRISH ECONOMY STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND RECENT IRISH ECONOMY EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE 1993 TO 2001 PROBLEMS AT PRESENT EXCLUDING CURRENT ISSUES REVERSAL OF LONG TERM TRANSFORMATION

GROWTH CELTIC TIGER 1993 – / % p.a. 1985/ % 1993/ % % % % % % % 2008 MINUS 3%

LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT EMIGRATION LOW FEMALE PARTICIPATION EG ………..500K EMIGRATION FROM POP OF 3M

1993 –2001 GDP GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INCOME GROWTH AMONG RICHEST IN EU 2002 AND 2003 BLIPS SEE HANDOUT FOR SCALE OF GROWTH

STRUCTURE OF ECONOMY MANUF INNOVATIVE DYNAMIC ECONOMY?? FORG DIR INVESTMENT USA FDI MAIN SOURCE OF EXPORTS AND HIGH TECH

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SKILLS, FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY, INFRASTRUCTURE, ENTERPRISE, POTENTIAL GDP AGGREGATE SUPPLY IRELAND Vs IVORY COAST TOTAL AND OUTPUT PER HEAD

POTENTIAL REFERS TO ALL FACTORS OF PRODUCTION IN USE ACTUAL?????????? WILL POTENTIAL BE PRODUCED WILL ENTREPRENEURS OPEN AND EXPAND BUSINESSES WILL PRODUCERS EMPLOY THE WORKERS AND PRODUCE

IF THEY THINK THEY WILL SELL THE OUTPUT AGGREGATE DEMAND CONSUMERS, INVESTORS, GOVT, EXPORT DEMAND CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTATIONS 1950s AND 1980s potential was there but not enough willing to use the potential

Actual was less than potential CONFIDENCE IS IMPORTANT CONFIDENCE LOW, DELAY INVESTMENT AND PURCHASING LESS OUTPUT SELF REALISING PREDICTION

FEATURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ACTIVITY IS THAT WE MUST KEEP SPENDING AND BUYING TO ENSURE THAT GOODS/SERVICES ARE PRODUCED ????????IF WE REJECT THE CONSUMER SOCIETY UNEMPLOYMENT

NEED GROWTH BECAUSE MORE PEOPLE MORE OUTPUT NEEDS MORE WORKERS PRODUCTIVITY RISES OVER TIME THEREFORE LESS PEOPLE NEEDED FOR A GIVEN OUTPUT

SOURCES OF GROWTH/CONTRIBUTIONS FDI/ICT REVOLUTION LOW TAX AVAILABLE LAB FORCE SKILLS EU MONEY COMPETITIVENESS

LOW INTEREST RATES EXCHANGE RATES PARTNERSHIP MACRO STABILITYNI PEACE EMERGENCE FROM POOR 1980s WORLD AND USA BOOM COMING TOGETHER OF MANY FAVOURABLE EVENTS

CONFIDENCE MUTUAL REINFORCING ICT REVOLUTION POTENTIAL GROWTH WAS HIGH LESS SO IN THE FUTURE LONG-TERM 5%

PROBLEMS IMMEDIATE AND LONG TERM COMPETITIVENESS WAGES AND EXCHANGE RATES LESS EU MONEY COMPETITION FROM NEW COUNTRIES TASK IS TO RAISE PRODUCTIVITY

INVEST IN EDUCATION INNOVATION SCIENCE RESEARCH NEW VALUE ADDED PRODUCTS AND PROJECTS SMART ECONOMY FDI WILL REMAIN ESSENTIAL

IMMEDIATE PROBLEMS BANKS, PUBLIC FINANCES, CONSTRUCTION SOURCES OF DEMAND GROWTH