Anomalies of global air temperature during the last Millennium, relative to the period 1902-1980.

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Presentation transcript:

Anomalies of global air temperature during the last Millennium, relative to the period

Anthropogenetic related risks 1998 Global temperature 1998 – the warmest

ECHAM4 Global Climate Model

GCM simulated changes in monthly precipitation in Bulgaria for the 2050s, relative to Climate Change Scenarios for Bulgaria

ECHAM4 climate change scenario for air temperature in May at the 2020s (2.8 o x 2.8 o ) GCM LIMITATIONS

(MAGICC/SCENGEN) ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual air temperature in Europe during the 2050s (A2 SRES emission scenario), (A2 SRES emission scenario), relative to

Change in summer mean temperature (oC) for the HadCM3 and PCM climate models coupled with the A2 SRES scenario for 2080

Change in summer precipitation (mm/month) for the HadCM3 and PCM climate models coupled with the A2 SRES scenario for 2080

Departures of the CERES simulated yield of maize at the Bulgarian region, relative to

WINTER WHEAT HadCM3 – A2 vs Bulgaria Poland

WINTER WHEAT HadCM3 – A2 vs Bulgaria Poland

MAIZE HadCM3 – A2 vs Bulgaria Poland

MAIZE HadCM3 – A2 vs Poland

HadCM3 SOYBEANS HadCM3 – A2 vs Bulgaria Poland

SOYBEANS HadCM3 – A2 vs Poland

ADAPTATION OPTINS  Zoning crop production in agricultural land areas with elevation below 1000 m agricultural land areas with elevation below 1000 m  Change in crops  Change in sowing dates  Change in irrigation  Change in crop hybrids andcultivars

ADAPTATION OPTINS  Change in fertilization  Change in management practices  Change in management of diseases andpests control  Governmental policy and strategies in the field of agriculture