Comparison of development trends Peeter Vihalemm EHDR 2010/2011 seminar Oct 2010

Main issues in the 1st chapter of the EHDR 2010/2011 Periodisation of post-communist transition: is it the same in all three countries? Comparing development trends in economy, social sphere and public opinion climate, can we find more similarities or differences between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? How can we explain these findings? Can we speak about the ‘Baltic model’ of development, comparing trajectories of change in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with some other countries in the Baltic Sea region?

Periodisation of transformation time

General pattern of post-communist transitional phases (Andrzej Rychard and Edmund Wnuk-Lipinski 2002) 1.Initial phase: social processes with ‘transformative power’ are triggered, preconditions and resources of changes are emerging. 2.Intermediate phase: the old system does not function any more, but the new one is only starting to emerge. 3.Advanced phase: the critical mass of changes is achieved, and the old system definitely becomes history. 4.Post-revolutionary phase: characterized by the stabilization of new political and economic relations and decrease of mass political activity. 5.Phase of consolidation: the institutional system is socially legitimized and party system consolidated.

In Estonia’s transformation since 1988 we have distinguished six periods (Lauristin & Vihalemm 2009) : breaking with the old system, the’Singing Revolution’ : radical reforms, constituting a new political, economic and social order; a time of ‘extraordinary politics’ : institutional stabilization, start of the period of integration with the EU and NATO : preparations for EU accession, growing inner tensions (development crisis) : new challenges of the post EU accession period, economic growth, growing welfare and satisfaction : economic recession, preparations for joining eurozone

How can we periodize Latvia’s and Lithuania’s transformation? Can we distuingish there the similar phases?

I shall compare now dynamics of some main economic, social and cultural indicators through two decades in Baltic countries and if possible, also in Poland, Russia and Finland.

GDP per capita in (1990=100; my own calculations, original data are given in US dollars at 2005 price; purchasing power parity is not taken into account)

Social development In social sphere I have chosen for comparison two indicators – life expectancy at birth and Gini coefficient Social development trajectories of three Baltic countries have been relatively similar, especially looking at first indicator, life expectancy. Development of Gini coefficient has been quite similar in 1990s, but a bit different in in 2000s – in Estonia there is a clear trend of decreasing social inequality.

Life expectancy at birth in Baltic countries, Poland, Finland and Russia,

Gini coefficient in Baltic countries, Poland and Finland

Trends in public opinion Public opinion in 1990s and early 2000s can be followed on the basis of results of New Baltic Barometer, conducted by prof Richard Rose and his colleagues The best indicator of public opinion climate seems to be evaluation of system changes, evaluation of present economic system and political regime in comparison with evaluation of socialist economy and Communist regime

Evaluation of past and present economic systems

Evaluation of past and present political systems

Saldo of evaluations: present vs past

Differences between countries There are big differences in system change evaluations of Estonians, from one side, and Latvians and Lithuanians, from the other side Latvians and Lithuanians evaluated new economic system and political regime higher than Soviet past only in 2004 (Latvians also political regime in 1993) Estonians evaluated new systems higher over the all period (with exeption of evaluation of changes of economic system in 1993).

How had EU accession influenced climate of public opinion in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? As New Baltic Barometer surveys had been stopped in 2004, I choose for comparative analysis of general attitudes in recent years data of Eurobarometer on life satisfaction

Conclusions Similarities between Estonia’s, Latvia’s and Lithuania’s development patterns seem to be bigger in social sphere than in economy In public opinion development there are much more and much bigger differencies between three countries than in economic and social development. In the new EU member states in the Baltic region the level of life satisfaction increased significantly after joining the union This change was bigger and faster in Estonia and Poland, smaller and slower in Latvia and Lithuania, where economic recession of had stronger impact on public opnion