Adapting to climate change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Rachel Block World Bank

A call to action ECA is significantly threatened by climate change Vulnerability is driven by socio-economic and environmental legacy issues Even countries that stand to benefit are poorly positioned to do so ECA countries can make their development much more resilient while reaping numerous co-benefits.

ECA is significantly threatened The climate is already changing

ECA is significantly threatened By the 2030s, it will be much warmer… Warmer everywhere: +1.6 to +2.6 by mid century Fewer frost days: (-14 to -30 days) More heat waves: Poland and Hungary to experience the same number of hot days as Sicily today Implications: Melting glaciers; less snow Melting permafrost, arctic ice Sea-level rise (except Caspian)

ECA is significantly threatened …with more droughts and floods… Precipitation will increase everywhere but in Southern ECA and Central Asia But water availability will decrease everywhere but the Baltics and Northern Russia Increased precipitation intensity almost everywhere

ECA is significantly threatened Some countries are particularly exposed Strength of future climate change relative to current variability Source: Baettig et al Notes: The index combines the number of additional hot, dry, and wet years; hot, dry, and wet summers; and hot, dry,and wet winters, projected over the 2070–2100 period relative to the 1961–1990 period.

Understanding vulnerability Source: Australian Government 2005.

Drivers of Vulnerability Socio-economic and legacy issues High “sensitivity” due to decades of environmental mismanagement and legacy issues: Water mismanagement, e.g. Aral Sea Pollution: coastal hotspots, poor siting of dangerous substances Poor quality housing (pre-fabricated panels) Aging, poorly maintained, over-dimensioned infrastructure

Understanding vulnerability High sensitivity in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Understanding vulnerability High adaptive capacity helps offset high exposure and sensitivity

Even countries that stand to benefit are poorly positioned to do so Assumption that Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine will “feed the world” Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but water? Agriculture’s large yield gap: 4.5 times higher than potential productivity increase from climate change Forests: Potential increase from better management: 60-80% Potential increase from warmer climate: 10-30% Northern expansion? Infrastructure needs Poor soils, drainage

Making development more resilient while reaping numerous co-benefits in ECA Mostly about “doing better” The main obstacle is NOT the lack of data Adaptation deficit to current climate should be the priority Good adaptation must Involve stakeholders Knowledge Ownership Effectiveness Combine qualitative and quantitative assessment Encourage robust strategies Some urgency

Specific recommendations Urban management Transport Energy Agriculture Health

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