ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector Emissions and Transport: A Global Perspective Lew Fulton UN Environment Programme Nairobi, Kenya

Role of UNEP United Nations Environment Program plays a leading role in supporting and promoting environmental protection world-wide UNEP is very involved with other agencies in multi-attribute assessments: Environmental Energy Economic Social Political (policy) UNEP has a variety of projects and programmes relating to urban environment and its various linkages with these other concerns DTIE (Division of Technology, Industry and Energy) PCFV (Partnership for clean fuels and vehicles) DGEF (Division of GEF coordination)

World Primary Energy Demand Coal Oil Gas Other renewables Nuclear Hydro Mtoe 1971 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

World Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Mt of CO 2 CoalOilGas Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

World CO 2 emissions by sector, The share of transport in CO 2 emissions will increase from 21% today to 23% in 2030 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

Increase in World Oil Demand, OECDNon-OECD mb/d Power generationIndustryTransportOther Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

IEA/World Energy Outlook 2004 Crude Oil Price Projections (A lot has changed in 2 years!) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

A Key Variable: Oil Demand Growth Annual demand growth 1% annual growth rate 3% annual growth rate mb/d

Though air travel energy use rises fastest, LDVs still will use most energy Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

Car ownership will continue to rise, especially in the developing world Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

2-wheeler growth could also be substantial Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

What do the trends mean for emissions? Projected total Non-OECD road transport emissions if countries eventually adopt euro-type standards IEA/SMP Projections; Reference case assumes a 10-year lag time; all scenarios assume fairly strong enforcement

Changing the travel/energy use trends: What are some options? The following slides outline some areas for where we see promise: Vehicle efficiency improvement Biofuels (some types, from some places) Improved transit systems (e.g. BRT) Greater attention to travel demand management and non-motorised modes

Vehicle Efficiency Options There are many technologies available to improve vehicle efficiency at relatively low cost IEA estimates that 25% reduction in new car fuel use/km could be achieved by 2020 at fairly low cost Strong policies will be needed; China has taken an important step in this regard Somewhat lower potential for other modes, but still significant This will save fuel but won’t directly impact pollutant emissions (except hydro carbons to a small degree)

Liquid Biofuels: Overview Ethanol Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries; are blended up to 26% in Brazil Costs for creating “fuel-flexible” vehicles (can run on any mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of € per vehicle; many such vehicles in Brazil, U.S. and Sweden Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of many pollutants (CO, PM), but can increase some (e.g. HC, aldehydes). Biodiesel Can be blended up to 100% with petroleum diesel in most engines, though some minor modifications may be required Biodiesel blends reduce emissions of most pollutants (PM, SOx) compared to petroleum diesel fuel, with reductions increasing with percent share of biodiesel

A typology of liquid biofuels FuelFeedstock Regions where currently produced GHG reduction impacts v. petroleum fuelCosts Biofuels yield per hectare of land Land types Ethanol Grains (wheat, maize) US, Europe, China low- moderatemoderate croplands Ethanol Sugar cane Brazil, India, Thailandhighlowhighcroplands Ethanol biomass (cellulose)nonehigh croplands, marginal lands Biodiesel (FAME) oil seeds (rape, soy) US, Europemoderate lowcroplands Biodiesel (FAME)Palm oil Southeast Asiamoderate low- moderate Moderate- high coastal lands Biodiesel (BTL)biomassnonehigh croplands, marginal lands

GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

Ethanol Production: Past…and Future? Million litres per year Source: IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective

Travel Demand Management Any reduction in motorized travel growth rates reduces future emissions Challenge is to maximize mobility while minimizing emissions Growth in car ownership is inevitable but it can be slowed and alternatives provided A model: cars in Europe are driven far less than in the US because of land use and travel alternatives

Travel Demand Management: Promising Options Many important measures; will mention three here: Get the prices right  Tax vehicles and fuels in line with social costs;  Differential taxation based on vehicle emissions is a powerful tool Invest in strong transit systems  Learn from Latin America – well designed, strongly implemented BRT makes a huge difference Design cities to be “friendly” to non-motorized transit and pedestrians

Bus Rapid Transit “Full” BRT Segregated, median busways with median stations Pre-board fare collection and fare verification Restricted operator access (closed system) Free transfers between corridors Competitively bid concessions High frequency service and low station dwell times Clean bus technologies Modal integration Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles. Volvo

Mass transit costs BRT US$ 1 – 5 million / km Manfred Breithaupt Trams / Light rail US$ 10 – 30 million / km Elevated rail US$ 50 – 100 million Subways US$ 50 million – 300 million / km Lloyd Wright

Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios: Fuel Switching Source: Wright and Fulton, 2005, “Climate Change and Transport in Developing Nations”, Transport Reviews

Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios: Mode Switching Source: Wright and Fulton, 2005, “Climate Change and Transport in Developing Nations”, Transport Reviews

Conclusions The world is likely to experience strong growth in fossil energy use over next 50 years Transport will be a key source of increased CO2 emissions and will account for nearly all growth in oil use Vehicle efficiency improvement is a must Advanced biofuels are promising, but huge questions remain about their potential and environmental impacts Investments in high-quality bus systems and NMT infrastructure may provide very low cost emissions reductions along with other benefits TDM as complementary measures are also critical