April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Washington Area Economy and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis.

Advertisements

National Economic Conditions John Weinberg August 11, 2010.

National Economic Indicators Ray Owens May 20, 2014.

Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research December 2014.

Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,

The Regional Economy, Housing Market and Transportation System: Implications and Challenges June 14, 2007 LIVE NEAR YOUR WORK SEMINAR.

Tracking the Recovery December 12, Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst.

January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional.

October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public.

Virginia Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives June 27, 2013 The Impact of Sequestration on the Virginia Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight.

Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research April 2015.

Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce November 13, 2013 The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

MODULE 0. Real Estate Markets & The Economy: An Empirical View.

Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight.

Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007.

Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D. Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at or ECONOMIC.

Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D. Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at or MID-YEAR.

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast March 11, 2014.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS. Understanding Economic Indicators  Background Economic Theme: Recognize the stage of the business cycle.

The Washington DC Housing Market: Trends and Outlook Housing Association of Non-Profit Developers December 11, 2014 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

The Great Economic Unraveling of : Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.

The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What? Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist Center for Economic & Community Development.

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC The Economy and Poverty in Los Angeles County MENDing Poverty Conference.

Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014 Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant,

October 15, 2012 Our Region’s Housing Market: What are price trends likely to be over the next 5 years? Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Center for Regional Analysis.

Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E. Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate.

 What is inflation? --a general upward movement in price of goods and services in an economy  What is deflation? --a general downward movement in.

Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York March 12, 2003.

December 4, 2008 The U.S., Washington & Northern Virginia Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook John McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy.

Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Presentation to ISM-Dallas January 10, 2008 A Falling Dollar, $100 Oil, and the Sub-Prime Mess: Is a Recession Inevitable?

ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK David Crowe Chief Economist Blue Ridge Home Builders Association February 27, 2014.

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

economic indicator  A statistic about the economy.  Allows analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance.  Include various.

DBIA-MAR Luncheon February 19, 2013 The U.S. and Washington Area Economies’ Current Economic Performance and Near-Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

Housing and Economic Outlook National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012 David Crowe Chief Economist.

Using Data to Track Local Housing Markets APDU Annual Conference Washington, DC September 24, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist.

Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 5, 2002.

Presented to 2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

WITC Inservice Shell Lake, WI Gross Domestic Product Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis.Shaded area indicates period of recession Actual.

Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast Presented by: Santee-Lynches Regional COG & The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development at Coastal.

IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

Tennessee Economic Outlook Professor Matthew N. Murray UT Center for Business and Economic Research March 29, 2010.

U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update 2015 Economic Summit Orlando, FL December 15 th, 2015.

U.S. Housing Outlook Presented By: Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. President Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

Financial Market and Economic Outlook Richard Kaglic April 15, 2010.

Reading the Economy. Rate of Change New – Old Old 600 – 500 =.2 = 20% 500.

Washington Area Compensation and Benefits Association February 21, 2013 Uncertain Economic Times: Impacts on Local DC, MD and VA Employers and Employees.

Tenth Annual Leckey Forum Housing the Region’s Future Workforce Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional.

SAME/ACEC Conference June 14, 2012 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

Kelly Cunningham Economist, Senior Fellow Economic Outlook Post-recession economic recovery January 21, 2015.

2013 Economic Outlook Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute.

Northern Virginia Workforce Development Board and SkillSource Group January 21, 2016 The Roadmap for the Washington Region’s Future Economy Stephen S.

Sectors Academy: Colorado’s Economic and Demographic Environment Alexandra Hall, Director Dee Funkhouser, Manager Labor Market Information Colorado Department.

1 National and Selected Regional Economic Conditions & Outlook March 24, 2015 Larry “Chip” Filer, Ph.D.

Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business.

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Office of the City Controller,

California Association of REALTORS  Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Deputy Chief Economist California Association of REALTORS  Economic and Housing Market.

June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government.

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Board of Directors Meeting March 9, 2016 The Roadmap for the Washington Region’s Future Economy Stephen.

Ann Battle Macheras Vice President, Regional Research and Economic Education Research Department National and Virginia Economic Update Mount Vernon-Lee.

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Lakewood Chamber of.

Arlington Public Schools Superintendent’s Seminars

Revised September 12, 2016.

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMY PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS) PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending August 2017 PAYROLL JOBS (THOUSANDS)

The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for

Development of the World and the Finnish Economy

Development of the World and the Finnish Economy

Presentation transcript:

April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis School of Policy, Government & International Affairs George Mason University Presentation to Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon – Lee Chamber of Commerce

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 2016 Forecast %

(000s) US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month Feb = +215 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

100 Consumer Confidence Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Expectations Current Situation

U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Source: Institute for Supply Management

The Washington Economy

Annual Job Change Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Washington +2.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $364.0K Feb 2016 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s)

Washington MSA Building Permits 2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb-16 Total: Annual Data Annual Month over Year

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Feb-16 Total: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA $ Billions | | | < 01–10 = $563.5B | TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov 71.2

Job Change by Sector Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 68,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Northern Virginia (000s)Total 34,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Jan 2016 – Feb 2016 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 3,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6.9 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.2 – SMD 4.1 – MSA NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

% Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 2016 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020 (Annual % Change) Washington U.S. %

% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 2016 Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV %

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

More Data Available at: cra.gmu.edu