ILO, 2014 Facilitator Training August 2014 Introducing the ‘Rapid Assessment Protocol’

Key questions What is the role of the RAP model? What is the structure of the RAP model? What are the different steps in using the RAP model? What are the possible sources of data? What are the advantages and limitations of the RAP model?

ABND FACTSHEET Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government Steps of ABND

ABND FACTSHEET Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government Second step of ABND

Why do we cost and project social protection benefits? It allows a discussion on concrete design feature of schemes. It helps setting priorities. It is a basis for advocacy.

Macroeconomic data (ECO) General government operations (GGO) Costing of benefits Summary and results 1. Input data 2. Estimated cost of benefits in absolute terms, as % of GDP, and as % of government expenditure 3. Projected cost of combined benefit packages Structure of RAP – Myanmar Demographic data (POP) Additional demographic data (POP2)

POP POP2 ECO GGO (SQ) Health BS 2 BS 4 BS 5 3. Summary of benefit costs SUM 1. Input worksheets 2. Benefit worksheets to estimate the cost of scenarios Structure of RAP Children Active Age Old Age

POP AR EAP ECO GGO (SQ) BS 1 BS 2BS 3 BS 4 BS 5 3. Summary of benefit costs SUM 1. Input worksheets 2. Benefit worksheets to estimate the cost of scenarios Structure of RAP

Sources of Data - Myanmar Finding recent data is a challenge Data from different sources was cross-checked Relied generally on international organizations – World Bank (WB) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) – World Health Organization (WHO) – United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA)

Input Data Demographic Data (POP) Additional Demographic Data (POP2) – Fertility rates – Rural population – Regional population – Informal Economy Population Macroeconomic Framework (ECO) General Government Operations (status quo) (GGO (SQ)) – info on government expenditure and revenues

Input data: POP Projected population by age and sex, is also a basis for other projections in the model. Population source used: UNDESA data – Projected for 5 year period and for 5 year age groups. – Low, medium and high variant – We used the medium variant. Divided 5 year periods by 5  single years Divided 5 year age groups by 5  single age years Female, male and total

Myanmar RAP: ‘Population’

Input data: POP2 Fertility Rate – Total fertility rate: Average number of children a woman can give birth to during her lifetime; it is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates during the child bearing period – Child-bearing age is 15-49: UNFPA, – WB & WHO, Rural Population – Rural population (as % of total population) – World Bank Staff estimates based on United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2012.

Input data: POP2 Informal Economy Population – Total population minus civil servants and private sector workers registered to the Social Security Board. Regional population – Total population for each region: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, 2010

Myanmar RAP: ‘POP2’

Input data: ECO GDP: IMF projections, Poverty: IHLCS, Inflation: IMF, 2014

Myanmar RAP: ‘General Government Operations’ Government expenditure (status quo): IMF, 2014.

Taking a closer look….

Using the RAP

ParameterWhat we haveWhat we need to know Benefit amountCurrent benefit level according to the programme design Future benefit level based on inflation, wage increase, etc. Target population Current number of people in the target group Future number of people in the target group based on general population growth, growth projections for specific groups Coverage of the target group Current coverage of potential beneficiaries Extension of beneficiary coverage depending on take-up rate Cost of extending benefits Current cost calculated using the parameters above Estimated future cost in absolute numbers, as % of GDP, as % of government expenditure based on GDP growth rate, forecasted government expenditure

Affordability of the proposed scenarios and their impact on the fiscal space can be assessed Preliminary fiscal space analysis is conducted by comparing the cost of the scenarios with GDP and adding the cost to government expenditures - in the GGO(Benefits) worksheet Fiscal space can be created by raising or introducing taxes, borrowing from international institutions or markets, cutting down on low-priority expenses Using the RAP

RAP can illustrate different policy options and provide a tangible basis to initiate and facilitate national dialogue. Long-term sustainability of the programme can be checked by comparing the cost of implementation with economic indicators like GDP and government expenditure. It is not a dynamic model. i.e. the potential positive impacts of the benefits on GPD (through strengthened consumption, graduation from poverty etc.) are not accounted for in the projections. Results are simplistic and indicative. Further detailed and actuarial studies are needed before designing a scheme Advantages and limitations of RAP

Old Age scenario 1: Universal social pension of 25,000 kyats per month for people 70 years old and over Benefit cost = (25,000 x 12) x (1,760,000x20%) = 112,836 million kyats Admin cost = 20% x 112,836 million = 22, 567 million kyats Total cost = 135,403 million kyats Benefits Target group Take up rate Admin cost 25,000 Kyats/month 1,760,000 20% 2016 US$31.5/month 1,800,000 40% 20% Inflation: 6.85% Pop growth: 2.2% Additional take-up rate: 20% Admin cost same Benefit cost = (25,000x12) x (1,800,000 x 40%) = 245,781 million kyats Admin cost = 20% x 245,781 million = 49,156 million kyats Total cost = 294,937 million kyats Using the RAP in Myanmar

Old Age scenario 1: Universal social pension of 25,000 kyats per month for people 70 years old and over. RAP calculation Projection Total cost as % of GDP = 135,403/72,074,640 = 0.19% Total cost as % of govt. exp. = 135,403/20,742,620 = 0.65% Total cost of benefit GDP Government expenditure 135,403 million kyats 72,074,640 million kyats 20,742,620 million kyats 294,937 million kyats 82,740,180 million kyats 23,130,720 million kyats Total cost as % of GDP = 294,937 / 82,740,180 = 0.36% Total cost as % of govt. exp. = 294,937 / 23,130,720 = 1.28% Using the RAP in Myanmar

Using the RAP in Myanmar Assumptions for administrative costs: – Universal schemes: 20% – Means-tested schemes: additional 10%. – Additional certification (i.e. for disability): additional 10%. – Conditional: additional 10% Justification: – Average administrative costs in existing schemes are between 20 and 40 %; – Cumbersomeness of means-testing and certifications considering Myanmar’s lack of infrastructure / existing delivery channels at the moment.

Scenarios Health: 9 scenarios Children: 20 scenarios Active Age: 15 scenarios Old Age: 13 scenarios Delivery: 2 scenarios DRR component: 1 scenario = 60 Scenarios

Taking a closer look…

Summary Presents the results of the model The cost as % of GDP for each scenario

Formulate packages In order to design what a social protection floor for Myanmar would look like, the various scenarios need to be combined so as to: – Cover the major contingencies faced by people throughout their life cycle. – Progressively offer coverage to the entire target groups. – Offer a coordinated social protection response at household level.

Example – Low Scenario Health – Scenario 4: A package of 30,000 Kyat per person per year for 70% of the population who cannot be covered by other schemes (SSB, military and civil servants). Children – Scenario 5: Universal child allowance of 8,000 Kyat per child per month for all children aged 1-5. – Scenario 12: Unconditional cash transfer of 16,000 Kyat per child per month for all families with children 0-15 with disabilities. – Scenario 13: Conditional cash transfer of 15,000 Kyat per month for all pregnant women in the last 6 months of pregnancy and children until 1 years old. Active Age – Scenario 9: A PEP with 40 days of work in dry areas for aged at 2,000 kyats per day, implemented over 5 years. – Scenario 14: Universal allowance of 30,000 kyats a month for people living with disabilities. Old Age – Scenario 1: Universal social pension of 25,000 kyats per month for people 70 years old and over.

Formulating packages

Taking a closer look…

Presenting the results of RAP Cost (as a percentage of GDP) of low and high scenarios in Indonesia

Presenting the results of RAP Cost (as a percentage of GDP) of low and high scenarios in Thailand

Presenting the results of RAP Cost (as a percentage of GDP) of low, medium and high scenarios in Myanmar

Have a go with the RAP and let us know if you have any questions