1 Draft Round 7.2 Cooperative Forecasts of Population, Households, and Employment Transportation Planning Board Timothy Canan, AICP April 15, 2009 Item 14

2 Background

3 Round 7.2 Cooperative Forecasts approved by the Metropolitan Development Policy Committee on January 14, 2009 for use in Air Quality Conformity Analysis for the FY2009 CLRP and FY TIP annual update to Round 7.1. Jurisdictions have the opportunity, but are not required, to annually provide updated forecasts based on new developments or land use decisions extended to 2040, at request of NVRC and ICPRB for drought and water supply planning –Forecasts through 2030 will be used in this year’s Air Quality Conformity Analysis –2040 forecasts will be used in next year’s Air Quality Conformity Analysis of the 2010 CLRP and FY TIP

4 Key Findings and Trends

5 Between 2005 and 2030, the region will continue to experience long-term growth. Growth forecasts are more modest compared to previous round –Lower population and household forecasts throughout entire forecast period 1.5% and 0.6% lower in 2030, respectively –Lower employment forecasts throughout most of the forecast period, with a slight increase in percent higher in 2030 Jobs will grow faster than population and households, resulting in increasingly higher demand for workers living outside the region to fill regional jobs. –Regional jobs-to-households ratio will increase from 1.62 in 2005 to 1.66 by 2030

6 Subareas

– 2030 Round 7.2 Cooperative Forecasts by Subarea

– 2030 regional growth patterns Central jurisdictions –less growth than other parts of the region –is only sub-area with more jobs than persons Inner suburbs –will add the most new jobs. –will continue to have more jobs and persons than other areas Outer suburbs –will add the most persons and households. –will grow fastest - - jobs, households and population will increase more than twice the rate of either the central jurisdictions or inner suburbs

9 Several key drivers and assumptions, among others, influenced revised growth forecasts. New development near Nationals’ baseball stadium, St. Elizabeth’s, Poplar Point and other locations will support more growth in the District of Columbia BRAC forecast from previous round revised to reflect relocation of 6,500 jobs originally targeted for Fort Belvoir (Fairfax County) to Mark Center (Alexandria) Slower commercial and residential growth resulting from economic and housing market conditions

10 Next Steps... TPB staff to conduct Air Quality Conformity Analysis of FY2009 CLRP and FY TIP Final COG Board approval of the Round 7.2 Cooperative Forecasts to occur concurrently with TPB approval of the Air Quality Conformity Assessment for the 2009 CLRP and FY TIP in July 2009

11 Questions...