Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Global Climate Change: How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now? Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Westminster Presbyterian Church Des Moines 22 January 2008

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Outline  Scientific basis for climate change  Climate change and the scientific process  Moving beyond the science to take action  What do we do now? –Mitigation –Adaptation  Summary

CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,

CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

IPCC Third Assessment Report

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY “Business as Usual” 950 ppm (2100) Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Natural cycles

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY  It's the sun 9.0%  Climate's changed before 7.8%  There is no consensus 6.4%  Surface temp is unreliable 5.8%  Models are unreliable 4.5%  Al Gore got it wrong 4.4%  Ice age predicted in the 70's 4.0%  CO2 lags temperature 3.7%  Mars is warming 3.3%  Global warming is good 3.3% Skeptics’ Arguments

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean temperature changes (K) between (Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]).

“Warming Hole”  T max (JJA) ˚C Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole”. Geophys. Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi: /2004GL

Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W- 125 W) R. Seager, et al., Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol no. 5828, pp

Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol no. 5828, pp

Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol no. 5828, pp Colorado River Compact established, 1922

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (UN) and the United Nations Environmental Programme  IPCC purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY NAS Assessment of IPCC Conclusions  “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures to rise and sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise”  “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue” National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change, 2001: Climate change science: An analysis of some key questions. National Academy Press.

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC AR4 (2007) Process  IPCC does not conduct its own research. It simply organizes teams of scientists to evaluate the current state of scientific knowledge  People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6 years.  These people included more than 2500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 850 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC AR4 Conclusions  Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.  Most of (>50% of) the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.  Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would continue for centuries" even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized, although the likely amount of temperature and sea level rise varies greatly depending on the fossil intensity of human activity during the next century.

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC AR4 Conclusions  The probability that this is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.  World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century and that:  Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to in).  There is a confidence level >90% that there will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and heavy rainfall.

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC AR4 Conclusions  There is a confidence level >66% that there will be an increase in droughts, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides.  Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium.  Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre- industrial values over the past 650,000 years

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  Mitigation –Become active politically  National level - examine candidate platforms  Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions –Examine personal choices  Home energy use  Auto type and use  Purchase of “stuff”

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  Mitigation –Become active politically  National level - examine candidate platforms  Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions –Examine personal choices  Home energy use  Auto type and use  Purchase of “stuff”  Adaptation –Stay informed of the best science on climate change for the Midwest –Encourage public and private investment in sustainable and resilient practices and infrastructure

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now: What are your public universities doing?  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now: What are your public universities doing?  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA)

Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the Hadley Centre global climate model

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE  R. Arritt, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA  R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK  D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada  D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy  I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA  A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now: What are your public universities doing?  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY ISU Climate Science Initiative  Launched by Vice President Brighton  Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken leadership, but broad campus research participation will be emphasized  Build on research strengths in regional climate modeling, agriculture, water, landscapes, engineering

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional Climate Change Affect  Crop & horticulture production  Soil erosion  Conservation practices  Water supplies  Streamflow  Water quality  Beef and pork daily gains  Livestock breeding success  Milk and egg production  Crop and livestock pests and pathogens  Agricultural tile drainage systems  Natural ecosystem species distributions  Human health  Building designs  Recreation opportunities  River navigation  Roads and bridges Who will provide authoritative information? How will it be delivered?

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now: What are your public universities doing?  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA)

Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)  Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest  Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models interactive web-based decision-making tools,  Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate forecast products to maximize economic gains  Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback through the county level extension service network

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Summary  Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years  Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years  Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century  Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years  Iowa State University will build on its strengths and provide authoritative information on climate change and climate variability for decision-makers