Democratic consciousness and economic growth in V4 countries and Ukraine Peter Goliaš INEKO Director, Slovakia December 16, 2014 Conference on democracy.

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Presentation transcript:

Democratic consciousness and economic growth in V4 countries and Ukraine Peter Goliaš INEKO Director, Slovakia December 16, 2014 Conference on democracy in Ukraine, Budapest

Democracy vs Economy Mutual interactions: – Democracy supports economic development – Economic development supports democracy GFK Hungária, Democratic attitudes in Ukraine, 2014: – Dalton (1994): Widespread support of democracy requires economic development – (1) The actual economic situation, (2) the perception of change in the financial situation over past 10 years as well as (3) the expected future financial development significantly affects the support of democracy in Ukraine

The financial situation of your household in the next 10 years will … HU (11)PL (11)SK (11)UA (14) improve not change worsen Satisfaction with the functioning of democracy by respondents economic expectation (%) Source: GFK Hungária, 2014 Democracy vs Economy

Source: GFK Hungária, Democratic attitudes in Ukraine, 2014 Democracy vs Economy

GDP per capita in V4 and Ukraine (in PPP, as % of EU28 average) Source: INEKO based on data from Eurostat (for V4 and EU28) and the World Bank (for Ukraine) Economic growth in V4+U

Feelings generated by politics (%) Source: GFK Hungária, 2014 Eroding trust to politicians HUPLSKAUA (14) Distrust Disgust Anger HUPLSKAUA (14) Indifference Boredom Positive feelings (sympathy, interest, enthusiasm)

HUPLSKUA (14) Democracy is preferable to dictatorship under any circumstances In some cases, dictatorship may be preferable to democracy For people like me, it makes no difference, whether we live in a democracy or a dictatorship Support for opinions about democracy (%) Source: GFK Hungária, 2014 Note: In 2011 the Slovak government collapsed and one of the biggest corruption scandals in post-communist era erupted.

Source: Eurobaromater surveys

State paternalism vs Individualism GFK Hungária, Democratic attitudes in Ukraine, 2014: – 38% of people from the Visegrad countries and 56% of Ukrainians thought that the state should be responsible for the welfare of its citizens, which is much higher than in Western countries. – Those people who think that the state should be responsible to guarantee welfare tend to be more antidemocratic than those who believe that individuals should be responsible for their own welfare.

HU (11)PL (11)SK (11)UA (14) Individuals should be responsible for their own welfare The state should be responsible for everyone's economic security State ownership is the best way to run an enterprise An enterprise is best run by private entrepreneurs Support for individualist and collectivist views (%) Source: GFK Hungária, 2014

HUPLSKUA (14) Opinions about the statement “We do not really need a parliament. Rather we need a strong leader who can make decisions quickly and implement them” (%) Source: GFK Hungária, 2014

Closing remarks It is crucial to implement pro-democratic, anti-corruption and pro-market reforms. Many reforms are unpopular, in conflict with vested interests or technically difficult. How to overcome these barriers? In Slovakia we were lucky to have: – Strong NGO sector, think-tanks – Free media – Experts (e.g. bank analysts) willing and able to comment in media – Well educated politicians and policy makers implementing reforms There is still much work to be done Fight against corruption is never-ending story

Thank you for your attention!